AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
60%
Western Bulldogs
40%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Hawthorn carry a 180-point ELO rating advantage (1715 vs 1536). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 2.7 points with a combined total of 144.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.35
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +19.5 @1.90
Edge
+16.8%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 174.5 @1.88
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | R8L R9L R10L R11W R12W older → newer | 88.2 |
Western Bulldogs | R8L R9W R10L R11W R12W | 85.6 |
Avg Conceded
86.8
Hawthorn
88.6
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
1.4
Hawthorn
-3.0
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
350.0
Hawthorn
350.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 144 · Line: +2.7
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