Win Probability
AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 60% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 144 was close to the actual 148, within 4 points. Western Bulldogs trailed 54–27 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–77. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 174.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
60%
Western Bulldogs
40%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Hawthorn carry a 180-point ELO rating advantage (1715 vs 1536). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 2.7 points with a combined total of 144.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +19.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.8%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 174.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | R9L R10L R11W R12W R13L older → newer | 83.8 |
Western Bulldogs | R9W R10L R11W R12W R13W | 80.6 |
Avg Conceded
83.6
Hawthorn
80.0
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
0.2
Hawthorn
0.6
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
350.0
Hawthorn
350.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 144 · Line: +2.7
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