# Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 71 – 77 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs surge back to muzzle Hawthorn from 27 down._

Half time: 54 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 60% / Western Bulldogs 40% · MCG · Fri, 05 June, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Nick Watson (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (11'), Ned Reeves (35'), Will Day (45'), Mabior Chol (51' ×3 Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Bailey Dale (7' 1st), Jordan Croft (20' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Arthur Jones (36'), Rhylee West (37'), Marcus Bontempelli (67' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Adam Treloar (71'), Will Lewis (82'), Tim English (64'), Aaron Naughton (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 60% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 13, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 June 2026, 08:33 pm · Last updated: 5 June 2026, 10:47 pm_

Hawthorn 71–77 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 13 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Western Bulldogs walked into the MCG on the back of four wins from their last five, a modest scoring average of 80.6 points and a defence that had been conceding just as little. None of that hinted at what was coming from the stat sheet, because on the numbers Hawthorn should have won this comfortably. The Bulldogs got the two that mattered though, and that's the only column that counts.

Look at the rest of the sheet and Hawthorn's dominance is obvious. They finished with 420 disposals to 339, ran inside 50 63 times to 44, and took 113 marks to the Bulldogs' 72. They were cleaner in transition too, hitting targets at 73.8% compared to 67.5%, and their ruck stocks won the hit-out count 42 to 26. Add 37 clearances to 33 and 77 intercepts to 67, and it reads like the box score of a team that walked in and controlled the contest

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 14 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 71 |
| Western Bulldogs | 12 | 15 | 31 | 19 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **420** | Disposals | 339 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| **37** | Clearances | 33 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **113** | Marks | 72 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **61** | Tackles | 56 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **77** | Intercepts | 67 |
| **73.8%** | Disposal eff. | 67.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 60% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 144 was close to the actual 148, within 4 points. Western Bulldogs trailed 54–27 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–77. The model went 2/4 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 19.5-point line. The under 174.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 60.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +19.5 @ $1.90 (edge +16.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 3 · Predicted total: 144

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hawthorn are the call at 60%, but Western Bulldogs stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 180 ELO points clear, 1715 to 1536. Form leans Western Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Hawthorn.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Hawthorn by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 144. Lean Hawthorn, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 83.8pts | Avg Score | 80.6pts |
| 83.6pts | Avg Conceded | 80.0pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 83.8 |
| Western Bulldogs | R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 80.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 136 · 102 | 92 · 108 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 70.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 44 | 40 · 39 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 24.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72% | 71.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 6 | 10 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.4% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8% · Key Forwards 4.02/g (lg 3.82) +5% · Midfielders 2.51/g (lg 2.48) +1%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.51/g (lg 2.48) +1% · Forwards 4.06/g (lg 4.47) -9% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.82) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 30 in 12g | 24/10g (1·3·1·5·2·2·3·3·2·2) | 5/3g | 45/24g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 41' 52' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 20 in 12g | 19/10g (1·2·3·3·1·2·1·2·1·3) | 10/6g | 65/36g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (1·3·0·2·1·1·0·2·1·0) | 8/9g | 58/57g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 10 in 12g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 66/53g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 10 in 7g | 13/10g (2·0·1·2·1·2·2·0·1·2) | 6/5g | 43/35g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 54' 77' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·3·0·1·0·1) | 7/7g | 34/43g | 56% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4·4) | 0/13g | 12/82g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 15/30g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 15/46g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/31g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/24g | 22% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 9/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 15/71g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bodie Ryan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Nairn | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Perez | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 31/84g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/34g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 10/39g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 4/27g | 32% | — | 🏉 45' |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 29 in 12g | 21/10g (3·3·1·3·1·2·2·3·2·1) | 20/12g | 32/16g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 17 in 12g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·2·2·1·1·2·1) | 8/16g | 16/23g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' 66' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·2) | 2/11g | 3/14g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·2·1) | 4/4g | 4/6g | 66% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·3·1·1·0·2·1) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 5 in 7g | 9/9g (2·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.88 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 65' 79' |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (3·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 3/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/9g | 6/13g | 34% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 14/38g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 10/17g | 46/75g | 48% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/15g | 6% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cody Weightman | FWD | no games | 13/10g (3·3·1·1·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 3/6g | 3/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 19/12g | 12/17g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 36 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 23.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 22.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 22 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 20.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 26 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Will Day | 19.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 25 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 15.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 17 ✗ |
| Nick Watson | 13.5 | $1.82 | 53% | 11 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 36 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 24 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 28 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Connor Budarick ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 9 ✓ |
| Adam Treloar | 18.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 12 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 12 ✓ |
| Tim English | 15.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 14.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 18 ✗ |
| Nick Coffield | 13.5 | $1.86 | 57% | 15 ✗ |
| Michael Sellwood | 12.5 | $1.83 | 46% | 11 ✓ |
| Arthur Jones ⚡ Under | 11.5 | $1.82 | 74% | 18 ✗ |
| Rhylee West | 11.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 10 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hawthorn 1715 · Western Bulldogs 1536 · ELO difference: 180 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1082 (best 1238) | 1103 (best 1248) | Western Bulldogs +21 |
| Forwards | 1058 (best 1480) | 1034 (best 1541) | Hawthorn +24 |
| Defence | 1094 (best 1402) | 1072 (best 1216) | Hawthorn +23 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1256) | 1232 (best 1495) | Western Bulldogs +148 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 144 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-05 12:47 UTC (latest tip update)