AFL | Round 13

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 181 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 147. Brisbane Lions led 46–62 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 187.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

53%Gold Coast SUNSFavourite

Gold Coast SUNS

53%

Brisbane Lions

47%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1595 vs 1509). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 12.3 points with a combined total of 147.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.56

Lost ✗

Edge

-11.2%

✗

Line / Spread

Gold Coast SUNS -10.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.8%

✗

Margin Band

Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 187.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.1%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Gold Coast SUNS	R8W R9W R10W R11L R13L older → newer	90.0
Brisbane Lions	R9W R10L R11L R12L R13W	89.6

Avg Conceded

82.6

Gold Coast SUNS

110.0

Brisbane Lions

Avg Margin

7.4

Gold Coast SUNS

-20.4

Brisbane Lions

Disposals

350.0

Gold Coast SUNS

350.0

Brisbane Lions

Inside 50s

50.0

Gold Coast SUNS

50.0

Brisbane Lions

H2H History (Last 5)Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

Sep 2025GCS 47 - 100 BRI

Jul 2025GCS 130 - 64 BRI

Apr 2025GCS 49 - 66 BRI

Jul 2024GCS 65 - 93 BRI

Apr 2024GCS 45 - 79 BRI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GCS

1595Overall1509

BRI

ELO difference: +87 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1112Midfield1125

Best: 1475BRI +13Best: 1600

912Forwards1030

Best: 1418BRI +118Best: 1600

1113Defence1113

Best: 1463EvenBest: 1463

1150Ruck1076

Best: 1341GCS +74Best: 1323

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GCS

Stat

BRI

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

90.0pts

Avg Score

89.6pts

82.6pts

Avg Conceded

110.0pts

7.4pts

Avg Margin

-20.4pts

350.0

Disposals

350.0

50.0

Inside 50s

50.0

60.0

Tackles

60.0

35.0

Clearances

35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

SUNS

Midfield ELO11.0%

Lions

Recent Win Rate10.0%

SUNS

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Lions

Defensive ELO8.0%

—

Scoring Form8.0%

—

Venue Advantage7.0%

Lions

Model Confidence

53%

Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 147 · Line: +12.3

1/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props