# Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 75 – 106 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions devour Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 46 – 62 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 53% / Brisbane Lions 47% · People First Stadium · Sat, 06 June, 05:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mac Andrew (27'), Jed Walter (44' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (49'), Christian Petracca (54' Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (6' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Logan Morris (9' ×7 Tipped ⚡), James Tunstill (41'), Sam Draper (42'), Ty Gallop (74'), Conor McKenna (78'), Darcy Fort (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 53% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.3 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 June 2026, 08:33 pm · Last updated: 6 June 2026, 08:06 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 75–106 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 13 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane led by 13 at quarter time, by 16 at the half, and by 29 by the last change. Nothing about the shape of this one changed, Gold Coast just kept losing ground at a steady rate until it was 106-75 at People First Stadium. Sometimes a game turns on one passage. This one just turned on Brisbane doing the same thing for four quarters and Gold Coast never finding an answer.

The Lions went inside 50 sixty-five times to Gold Coast's 43. That's not a purple patch, that's a full match's worth of territory dominance, and it explains why the scoreboard kept ticking over in Brisbane's favour from the first bounce. Twenty-two more entries is the kind of gap that turns a contest into an accounting exercise.

The midfield battle set it up. Brisbane won clearances 31 to 21 and contested possession 123 to 111, and both of those numbers matter more than the raw disposal count, where Gold Coast actually edged it 345 to 343. Winning the footy at the source counts for more than winning it in general circulation, and Brisbane had first use often enough to dictate terms.

Oddly, Gold Coast's ruck division had a strong night on paper, 37 hit-outs to 20, and their disposal efficiency was the cleaner of the two sides at 76.2% to 70.8%. None of it mattered much. Hit-outs without clearances are just a number on a stat sheet, and clean disposal counts for less when you're not getting it inside 50 often enough to use it.

Brisbane made their entries count too, 16 marks inside 50 to Gold Coast's 10, which is the difference between a genuine scoring chance and a hopeful bomb into a crowd. Add 50 tackles to Gold Coast's 35 and you've got a side that pressured the ball, won it back, and cashed in when they got forward. That's a fairly complete formula.

Pre-match, the model had Gold Coast as 53% favourites and predicted them to win by 12.3 points, with a combined total of 147. Reality went the other way entirely, Brisbane by 31 in a 181-point shootout that ran 34 points hotter than tipped. Gold Coast came in with the better recent form, three wins from five against Brisbane's two, and had been conceding just 82.6 points a game on average. None of that showed up when it mattered.

The positional ratings actually hinted at trouble for Gold Coast if you looked past the ladder. Brisbane's forward line was rated well clear, 1030 to 912, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the forward 50 mark count and the final scoreboard. Gold Coast's ruck advantage was real but isolated, and it wasn't enough to offset a forward line and midfield working in tandem.

The model went 1 from 4 on this one, with only the under on the total (187.5) landing. A game like this is a reminder that recent form and ladder position only tell you so much. Brisbane's forward structure did the damage, and Gold Coast never found a way to slow the bleeding.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 32 | 15 | 14 | 75 |
| Brisbane Lions | 27 | 35 | 28 | 16 | 106 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **345** | Disposals | 343 |
| 111 | Contested poss. | **123** |
| 21 | Clearances | **31** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| 93 | Marks | **98** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 35 | Tackles | **50** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 20 |
| 66 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **76.2%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 181 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 147. Brisbane Lions led 46–62 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 187.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.56 (edge -11.2%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 12 · Predicted total: 147

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Gold Coast SUNS and Brisbane Lions. The model can't split them, landing on Gold Coast SUNS at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Gold Coast SUNS sit 87 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1509. Form leans Gold Coast SUNS's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Brisbane Lions.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Gold Coast SUNS by 12.3, with the two sides combining for about 147. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 90.0pts | Avg Score | 89.6pts |
| 82.6pts | Avg Conceded | 110.0pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -20.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R13 L | 90.0 |
| Brisbane Lions | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 89.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Brisbane Lions | 95 – 53 | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions 85% ✓ |
| 2025 | QE | Brisbane Lions | 100 – 47 | Gold Coast SUNS | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 130 – 64 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 66 – 49 | Gold Coast SUNS | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 65 – 93 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 119 · 91 | 131 · 126 |
| Goal Assists | 6.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.3/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 28 | 34 · 36 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.5/g | 25.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 14 | 9 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 84% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.36/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Key Forwards 3.74/g (lg 3.83) -2% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.51) -6%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.13) +5% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.5) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 34 in 11g | 30/10g (5·7·3·2·3·2·2·4·1·1) | 24/11g | 125/52g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 61' 70' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·3·4·0·3·0·2·1·1·1) | 14/14g | 17/12g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (2·1·1·0·3·2·2·0·0·2) | 8/9g | 30/29g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 74' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 12 in 6g | 16/10g (2·1·0·1·2·2·2·0·3·3) | 2/2g | 16/11g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 83' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 8 in 8g | 11/10g (3·0·4·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 27/27g | 50% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/11g | 4/16g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/18g | 30/94g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 16/52g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 5/13g | 51% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 32/55g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 9/58g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 11/13g | 14/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 13/76g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 21/43g | 26% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Jai Murray | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/28g | 12% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/59g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 27 in 12g | 21/10g (2·0·1·3·4·2·2·3·2·2) | 43/20g | 26/15g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 82' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 25 in 11g | 22/10g (2·3·0·3·2·4·4·2·1·1) | 3/4g | 0/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 12' 51' 52' 57' 70' 84' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 21 in 12g | 18/10g (2·4·1·1·1·4·2·0·3·0) | 6/5g | 2/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 16 in 11g | 15/10g (2·2·2·0·3·4·0·1·0·1) | 18/13g | 15/11g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·3·0) | 15/14g | 12/9g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·2·2·0·1·2·0) | 4/10g | 2/9g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 1/5g | 56% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 11/18g | 10/14g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 1/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darragh Joyce | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 4/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 4/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Shadeau Brain | DEF | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 74' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.77 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca | 25.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 20 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 36 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 23.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 23.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 27 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 10 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 17 ✗ |
| Lachie Weller | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 8 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 13.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 12 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 37 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 80% | 25 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.93 | 76% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 21.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 14 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 13 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 12.5 | $1.89 | 41% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Gold Coast SUNS 1595 · Brisbane Lions 1509 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1112 (best 1475) | 1125 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +13 |
| Forwards | 912 (best 1418) | 1030 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +118 |
| Defence | 1113 (best 1463) | 1113 (best 1463) | Even |
| Ruck | 1150 (best 1341) | 1076 (best 1323) | Gold Coast SUNS +74 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 147 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-06 10:06 UTC (latest tip update)