Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 5 points. Total score prediction of 144 was close to the actual 139, within 5 points. Carlton trailed 39–25 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 67–72. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Essendon
47%
Carlton
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Carlton a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 304-point ELO rating advantage (1429 vs 1125). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 12.8 points with a combined total of 144.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-31.3%
Line / Spread
Essendon +30.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+43.3%
Margin Band
Essendon 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | R8L R9L R10L R11L R12L older → newer | 68.0 |
Carlton | R8L R9L R10W R11W R12W | 82.4 |
Avg Conceded
101.8
Essendon
82.4
Carlton
Avg Margin
-33.8
Essendon
0.0
Carlton
Disposals
350.0
Essendon
350.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Carlton predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 144 · Line: +12.8
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.