# Essendon v Carlton — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 67 – 72 Carlton

_Carlton roar back to deny Essendon._

Half time: 39 – 25 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 47% / Carlton 53% · MCG · Sun, 07 June, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Ben McKay (24' ×2), Max Kondogiannis (34'), Hussien El Achkar (35' ×2), Sam Durham (40'), Harry Jones (69'), Nate Caddy (82' Tipped ⚡), Zach Reid (86') · Carlton: Talor Byrne (19' ×2 1st), Harry McKay (46' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Brodie Kemp (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (78'), Ben Ainsworth (61' Tipped ⚡), Will Hayward (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 53% | Won |
| Essendon | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 June 2026, 10:16 pm · Last updated: 7 June 2026, 10:01 pm_

Essendon 67–72 Carlton in AFL Round 13 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon spent four quarters trying to win the ball back with brute force. Carlton spent four quarters trying to win it back with better eyes. In the end, reading the play beat grabbing it, and Carlton got up 72–67 at the MCG.

The clearance count tells you what Essendon was built to do. They won it 35–28 and led contested possession 132–107, the kind of numbers that should hand a team the game. Essendon's midfield rating (1172 to Carlton's 1082) said as much coming in, and for a half it looked right: Essendon led 39–25 at the main break, playing the territory game and cashing it in.

Then the picture flipped. Carlton clawed level, 46–46 at three-quarter time, and from there it was their turn to find the edges that mattered. Carlton's defence rating (1115 to Essendon's 1041) showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the intercept count: 66 to Essendon's 57. Nine extra turnovers won back is nine extra chances to hurt a side that had spent the whole game working hard for its own ball.

Marks tell a similar story. Carlton led 119–115 overall and 11 to Essendon's 12 inside forward 50, tight numbers, but paired with better disposal efficiency (76.7% to 76.1%) it means Carlton did less running to achieve more. Essendon had more of the footy, more inside 50s (49 to 45), more tackles laid on them defensively (45 to 39 the other way), and still came up five points short. That's the contrast in a sentence: volume against precision, and precision won.

Carlton's form line backs up the character on show. Three wins from their last five, an average losing margin of zero across that stretch, disposal and clearance numbers dead level with Essendon's own recent form. This was a side used to finishing tight games. Essendon arrived off five straight losses, conceding an average of 101.8 points a game, and for three quarters looked like they'd found the antidote. The last quarter said otherwise.

Alphr's model had Carlton as 53% favourites, and got the winner right. The margin read was the miss, tipped at 12.8 points when the actual gap was 5, Essendon doing enough late to make it properly tight without getting there. The total score call landed close, 144 projected against 139 actual, and the under on 169.5 came in as expected. Three from four isn't a bad night's work, even with the margin blowing out.

Essendon will look at that three-quarter time scoreline and wonder how a 46–46 game got away from them without conceding another clearance battle. The answer's sitting in the intercept column. Carlton didn't need to win the footy more often. They just needed to make Essendon pay every time they had it, and by full time, that's exactly what happened.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 15 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 67 |
| Carlton | 8 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Disposals | **382** |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 107 |
| **35** | Clearances | 28 |
| **49** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| 115 | Marks | **119** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 39 | Tackles | **45** |
| **31** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| 57 | Intercepts | **66** |
| 76.1% | Disposal eff. | **76.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 5 points. Total score prediction of 144 was close to the actual 139, within 5 points. Carlton trailed 39–25 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 67–72. The model went 3/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 30.5-point line. The under 169.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.18 (edge -31.3%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +30.5 @ $1.90 (edge +43.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 · Predicted total: 144

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Essendon and Carlton. The model can't split them, landing on Carlton at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Carlton sit 304 ELO points clear, 1429 to 1125. Form leans Carlton's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Essendon.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Essendon by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 144. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 68.0pts | Avg Score | 82.4pts |
| 101.8pts | Avg Conceded | 82.4pts |
| -33.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 68.0 |
| Carlton | R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 82.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Carlton lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Essendon | 56 – 90 | Carlton |
| 2025 | R13 | Carlton | 78 – 70 | Essendon |
| 2024 | R13 | Essendon | 70 – 96 | Carlton |
| 2023 | R13 | Carlton | 52 – 86 | Essendon |
| 2022 | R13 | Essendon | 54 – 80 | Carlton |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 76 · 135 | 98 · 106 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 78/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 14/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.2/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 68.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 39 | 34 · 51 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 142/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.4/g | 20.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.9% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 6 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79% | 77.9% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.13) +8% · Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.44) +4%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.33/g (lg 4.44) +20% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.13) +12% · Key Forwards 4.28/g (lg 3.84) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 23 in 11g | 22/10g (4·1·2·1·3·3·2·2·2·2) | 0/1g | 14/15g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/22g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/15g | 36/83g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/35g | 36% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 51/53g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 18/35g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 4% | — | 🏉 24' 70' |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 35' 47' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/46g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/3g | 15/18g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | 🏉 86' |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 21 in 12g | 19/10g (3·2·2·3·3·1·3·0·2·0) | 13/8g | 41/47g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 19 in 12g | 17/10g (0·3·0·2·4·3·0·1·2·2) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 72' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (2·1·2·1·1·0·3·2·1·0) | 13/7g | 102/52g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 52' 65' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 12 in 12g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 9/8g | 8/9g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·2·3) | 15/12g | 32/26g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 3/13g | 41/93g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/36g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 8/13g | 48% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/13g | 17/52g | 30% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 15/51g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 43% | — | 🏉 19' 74' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 14/39g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·2) | 2/1g | 5/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 56% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/45g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/25g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 16/43g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 33 ✗ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 92% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 30 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 20.5 | $1.83 | 40% | 12 ✓ |
| Sullivan Robey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 85% | 15 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 19.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Kyle Langford ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.94 | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow | 16.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 17 ✗ |
| Saad El-Hawli | 15.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 8 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 14.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 22 ✗ |
| Zach Reid | 12.5 | $1.85 | 44% | 21 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 29.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 28.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 24 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 23.5 | $1.89 | 56% | 23 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 23.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 22.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 90% | 24 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 20.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 22 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 18.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 17 ✓ |
| Will Hayward ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.86 | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 13 ✓ |
| Harry McKay ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 16 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1125 · Carlton 1429 · ELO difference: 304 in favour of Carlton

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1172 (best 1385) | 1082 (best 1351) | Essendon +91 |
| Forwards | 981 (best 1454) | 1010 (best 1523) | Carlton +29 |
| Defence | 1041 (best 1451) | 1115 (best 1392) | Carlton +74 |
| Ruck | 1103 (best 1323) | 1117 (best 1191) | Carlton +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Carlton |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Carlton |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Carlton predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 144 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-07 12:01 UTC (latest tip update)