# Essendon v Carlton — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Essendon v Carlton
Sun, 07 June, 07:20 pm AEST · MCG · Round 13

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.18 (edge -31.3%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +30.5 @ $1.90 (edge +43.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 · Predicted total: 144

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 68.0pts | Avg Score | 82.4pts |
| 101.8pts | Avg Conceded | 82.4pts |
| -33.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 68.0 |
| Carlton | R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 82.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-07 12:01 UTC (latest tip update)