Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
57%
Melbourne
43%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 43%. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO, but Collingwood counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1521 vs 1464). Recent form favours Melbourne with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 6.0 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.79
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.6%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -2.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.5%
Margin Band
Collingwood 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | R8L R9L R10L R11W R12L older → newer | 84.2 |
Melbourne | R8L R9W R10W R11L R12L | 98.6 |
Avg Conceded
95.0
Collingwood
98.2
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-10.8
Collingwood
0.4
Melbourne
Disposals
350.0
Collingwood
350.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Collingwood predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: +6.0
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