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AFL | Round 13

alphr.com.au

Thu 4 June7:30pm
ADEADE
GEEGEE
Fri 5 June7:40pm
HAWHAW
WBDWBD
Sat 6 June2:15pm
NORNOR
FREFRE
Sat 6 June5:15pm
GCSGCS
BRIBRI
Sat 6 June8:15pm
WCEWCE
PORPOR
Sun 7 June3:15pm
SYDSYD
STKSTK
Sun 7 June7:20pm
ESSESS
CARCAR
Mon 8 June3:15pm
COLCOL
MELMEL
ADE
Adelaide Crows
VS
GEE
Geelong Cats
ADELAIDE OVAL • THURSDAY 4 JUNE, 7:30 PM AEST

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 3.3 vs the actual margin of 1 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

55%Adelaide CrowsFavourite

Adelaide Crows

55%

Geelong Cats

45%

✨

AI Match Overview

Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 45%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 199-point ELO rating advantage (1800 vs 1601). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 3.3 points with a combined total of 143.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Adelaide Crows to Win @2.34

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Adelaide Crows +8.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.8%

✓

Margin Band

Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 166.5 @1.88

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.8%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Adelaide Crows
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L
R13W

older → newer

89.6
Geelong Cats
R9W
R10W
R11W
R12L
R13L
100.8

Avg Conceded

70.0

Adelaide Crows

77.4

Geelong Cats

Avg Margin

19.6

Adelaide Crows

23.4

Geelong Cats

Disposals

350.0

Adelaide Crows

350.0

Geelong Cats

Inside 50s

50.0

Adelaide Crows

50.0

Geelong Cats

H2H History (Last 5)Geelong Cats lead 5-0
Mar 2026ADE 60 - 68 GEE
Apr 2025ADE 100 - 119 GEE
Aug 2024ADE 85 - 90 GEE
Mar 2024ADE 77 - 96 GEE
Apr 2023ADE 72 - 98 GEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

ADE
1601Overall1800
GEE
ELO difference: -199 in favour of Geelong Cats

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1068Midfield1085
Best: 1313GEE +17Best: 1478
974Forwards981
Best: 1396EvenBest: 1472
1151Defence1093
Best: 1538ADE +58Best: 1600
1089Ruck1104
Best: 1172GEE +15Best: 1302

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

ADE
Stat
GEE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
89.6pts
Avg Score
100.8pts
70.0pts
Avg Conceded
77.4pts
19.6pts
Avg Margin
23.4pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cats
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Cats
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Crows
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Cats
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Crows
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Cats
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Crows

Model Confidence

55%

Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 143 · Line: +3.3

4/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props