AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
55%
Geelong Cats
45%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 45%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate, but Adelaide Crows counter with Defensive ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 199-point ELO rating advantage (1800 vs 1601). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 3.3 points with a combined total of 143.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @2.34
Edge
+11.8%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +8.5 @1.90
Edge
+11.8%
Margin Band
Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.88
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | R7L R8W R9W R10W R11L older → newer | 89.6 |
Geelong Cats | R8W R9W R10W R11W R12L | 113.0 |
Avg Conceded
80.6
Adelaide Crows
79.6
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
9.0
Adelaide Crows
33.4
Geelong Cats
Disposals
350.0
Adelaide Crows
350.0
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 143 · Line: +3.3
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