Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 8.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 190 points came in 51 points higher than the predicted 139. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
55%
Collingwood
45%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 45%. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form, but Western Bulldogs counter with Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1511). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 8.9 points with a combined total of 139.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.0%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +10.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.6%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | R7L R8L R9W R10L R11W older → newer | 78.2 |
Collingwood | R7W R8L R9L R10L R11W | 93.0 |
Avg Conceded
95.2
Western Bulldogs
87.6
Collingwood
Avg Margin
-17.0
Western Bulldogs
5.4
Collingwood
Disposals
350.0
Western Bulldogs
350.0
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1545 vs 1511), but the market favours Western Bulldogs (@1.56).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 139 · Line: +8.9
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