Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted West Coast Eagles to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.5 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 146 was close to the actual 140, within 6 points. West Coast Eagles led 36–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
55%
Essendon
45%
AI Match Overview
West Coast Eagles hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees West Coast Eagles ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 17.5 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.6%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles -12.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 150.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | R7L R8L R9L R10W R11L older → newer | 73.4 |
Essendon | R7L R8L R9L R10L R11L | 69.0 |
Avg Conceded
100.8
West Coast Eagles
112.2
Essendon
Avg Margin
-27.4
West Coast Eagles
-43.2
Essendon
Disposals
350.0
West Coast Eagles
350.0
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
West Coast Eagles
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: +17.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.