# West Coast Eagles v Essendon — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 85 – 55 Essendon

_West Coast Eagles take flight against Essendon._

Half time: 36 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 55% / Essendon 45% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 31 May, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Milan Murdock (3' ×2 1st), Jake Waterman (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Johnston (47'), Jobe Shanahan (52' Tipped ⚡), Harley Reid (57'), Bailey Williams (65'), Willem Duursma (67'), Tom McCarthy (77') · Essendon: Archer Day-Wicks (36' ×2), Ben McKay (81'), Tom Edwards (62'), Nate Caddy (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zach Merrett (82')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 55% | Won |
| Essendon | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.5 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 May 2026, 12:46 pm · Last updated: 31 May 2026, 10:14 pm_

West Coast Eagles 85–55 Essendon in AFL Round 12 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon wanted the contest, West Coast Eagles wanted the ball in space. Both teams got what they set out for, and only one of them got the scoreboard for it. West Coast Eagles ran out 85-55 winners at Optus Stadium, and the gap between effort and efficiency told the whole story.

Essendon won the fight for it. They out-clearanced West Coast Eagles 45 to 22, had more of the contested footy at 126 to 114, and laid on 56 tackles to 41. That's a side doing the unglamorous work, winning the collisions, making the opposition earn every metre. Problem was, none of it translated into scoreboard pressure. West Coast Eagles took the ball off them anyway, with 77 intercepts to 60, and turned hard yards into easy ones.

Where it really got decided was efficiency. West Coast Eagles hit targets at 80.5% to Essendon's 71.6%, and while the disposal counts were near identical, 370 to 373, what West Coast Eagles did with theirs was miles cleaner. Fifty-one inside 50s to 40, and once it got there, 16 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 6. Essendon kept winning the ball back. West Coast Eagles kept doing more with it.

The scoreboard reflected that gulf from the opening term. West Coast Eagles led 17-1 at quarter time, an avalanche that Essendon never had an answer for. By half time it was 36-16, and by three-quarter time West Coast Eagles had blown it out to 70-29, a 41-point buffer built almost entirely on cashing in every trip forward. The last quarter was actually the one Essendon won on the scoreboard, closing out 85-55, but by then it was well and truly academic.

Essendon's form coming in was grim, a 0-5 run with an average losing margin of 43.2 points, and today at least they trimmed some of that gap. West Coast Eagles arrived with just one win from five themselves, but their defence rating of 1151 against Essendon's 1041 was the pointer worth watching pre-match, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: in the intercept count and in shutting down the run despite getting beaten around the clearances.

Alphr's model had West Coast Eagles as 55% favourites, and that side of the ledger landed fine. The predicted margin of 17.5 undersold it badly, with the actual gap running out to 30 points, proof that a midfield edge on paper doesn't count for much if the other side keeps intercepting the ball and finishing every entry. The total score prediction fared better, tipped at 146 against an actual 140, within 6 points.

Four correct picks out of four for this one, margin number aside. Essendon did all the unglamorous work and still lost by 30. Sometimes winning the fight isn't the same as winning the war.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 17 | 19 | 34 | 15 | 85 |
| Essendon | 1 | 15 | 13 | 26 | 55 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Disposals | **373** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **126** |
| 22 | Clearances | **45** |
| **51** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **97** | Marks | 68 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 41 | Tackles | **56** |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **34** |
| **77** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **80.5%** | Disposal eff. | 71.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted West Coast Eagles to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.5 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 146 was close to the actual 140, within 6 points. West Coast Eagles led 36–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $1.45 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 55.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles -12.5 @ $1.88 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 150.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 18 · Predicted total: 146

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

West Coast Eagles are the call at 55%, but Essendon stay live at 45%. Form leans West Coast Eagles' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Essendon.

West Coast Eagles own the matchup too, leading 2 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has West Coast Eagles by 17.5, with the two sides combining for about 146. Lean West Coast Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 73.4pts | Avg Score | 69.0pts |
| 100.8pts | Avg Conceded | 112.2pts |
| -27.4pts | Avg Margin | -43.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L | 73.4 |
| Essendon | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 69.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 115 | 70 · 130 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 74/g | 77/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.5/g | 14.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.6/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 40 | 42 · 36 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.2/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 73.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 20 | 11 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 155/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.5/g | 13.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.4/g (lg 4.45) +21% · Key Forwards 4.28/g (lg 3.83) +12% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.13) +12%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.53/g (lg 2.5) +41% · Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.51) +41% · Defenders 1.39/g (lg 1.13) +23%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 22 in 11g | 19/10g (1·4·1·1·1·1·3·3·3·1) | 16/8g | 102/64g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 74' 64' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (2·0·0·4·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 13/10g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·2·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·3) | 4/13g | 26/62g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 19/26g | 46% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 48% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/7g | 21/45g | 38% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 10/26g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 1/45g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 24/67g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/67g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 0 in 3g | 8/10g (2·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/3g | 19/22g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/86g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 21 in 10g | 21/10g (1·4·1·2·1·3·3·2·2·2) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' 79' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·0·0·2·2·2·0·3·2·3) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 4/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | 7 in 6g | 10/8g (3·0·2·2·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 71% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·3·1·1·0·0) | 5/9g | 8/9g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.86 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 6/13g | 36% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 15/10g | 13/11g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 36' 88' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 4/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 3/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 0% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 24.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 24 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay | 20.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 20.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 18.5 | $1.91 | 40% | 17 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 15 ✓ |
| Hamish Davis | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 17.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 25 ✗ |
| Bailey J. Williams ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 11 ✓ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 13.5 | $1.86 | 42% | 17 ✗ |
| Tylar Young | 12.5 | $1.84 | 43% | 26 ✗ |
| Brady Hough | 11.5 | $1.82 | 37% | 13 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | 28.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 31 ✗ |
| Darcy Parish ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.80 | 71% | 27 ✓ |
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.80 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 96% | 26 ✗ |
| Sullivan Robey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 88% | 19 ✓ |
| Kyle Langford ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 18.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 26 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✗ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 19 ✗ |
| Saad El-Hawli ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 65% | 16 ✗ |
| Zach Reid | 12.5 | $1.80 | 41% | 14 ✗ |
| Nick Bryan | 12.5 | $1.82 | 65% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1171 · Essendon 1171 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of West Coast Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Essendon | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1081 (best 1297) | 1172 (best 1385) | Essendon +92 |
| Forwards | 977 (best 1297) | 981 (best 1454) | Essendon +5 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1414) | 1041 (best 1451) | West Coast Eagles +111 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1141) | 1103 (best 1323) | Essendon +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 146 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-31 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)