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AFL | Round 12

alphr.com.au

Thu 28 May7:30pm
STKSTK
HAWHAW
Fri 29 May7:40pm
CARCAR
GEEGEE
Sat 30 May1:15pm
SYDSYD
RICRIC
Sat 30 May4:15pm
BRIBRI
FREFRE
Sat 30 May7:35pm
WBDWBD
COLCOL
Sun 31 May3:15pm
MELMEL
GWSGWS
Sun 31 May7:20pm
WCEWCE
ESSESS
SYD
Sydney Swans
VS
RIC
Richmond
SCG • SATURDAY 30 MAY, 1:15 PM AEST

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.2 but the actual margin was 114 points. The game's 226 points came in 76 points higher than the predicted 150. Sydney Swans led 97–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 114. The model went 1/4 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

67%Sydney SwansFavourite

Sydney Swans

67%

Richmond

33%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 603-point ELO rating advantage (1765 vs 1162). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 14.2 points with a combined total of 150.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sydney Swans to Win @1.03

Winner ✓

Edge

-30.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Richmond +55.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+41.3%

✗

Margin Band

Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 180.5 @1.87

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.5%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Sydney Swans
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L

older → newer

104.6
Richmond
R7L
R8W
R9L
R10L
R11W
75.8

Avg Conceded

90.6

Sydney Swans

95.4

Richmond

Avg Margin

14.0

Sydney Swans

-19.6

Richmond

Disposals

350.0

Sydney Swans

350.0

Richmond

Inside 50s

50.0

Sydney Swans

50.0

Richmond

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SYD
1765Overall1162
RIC
ELO difference: +603 in favour of Sydney Swans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1188Midfield1099
Best: 1471SYD +89Best: 1475
1001Forwards986
Best: 1600SYD +16Best: 1491
1140Defence1108
Best: 1534SYD +32Best: 1589
1153Ruck1066
Best: 1513SYD +86Best: 1392

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SYD
Stat
RIC
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
104.6pts
Avg Score
75.8pts
90.6pts
Avg Conceded
95.4pts
14.0pts
Avg Margin
-19.6pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Swans
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Swans
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Swans
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Swans
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Swans
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Swans
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Swans

Model Confidence

67%

Sydney Swans predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 150 · Line: +14.2

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props