# Sydney Swans v Richmond — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 170 – 56 Richmond

_Sydney Swans put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 97 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 67% / Richmond 33% · SCG · Sat, 30 May, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: James Jordon (4' 1st), Isaac Heeney (6' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Curnow (13' ×8 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (34' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Hayden McLean (44' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Peter Ladhams (45'), Joel Amartey (76' Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Noah Roberts-Thomson (7'), Tyler Sonsie (14'), Jasper Alger (25' ×2), Sam Cumming (39'), Mykelti Lefau (57' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Hayes-Brown (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 67% | Won |
| Richmond | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.2 predicted → 114 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 May 2026, 12:46 pm · Last updated: 30 May 2026, 04:10 pm_

Sydney Swans 170–56 Richmond in AFL Round 12 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

By quarter time it was already 45 to 25. By half time it was 97 to 46. Richmond had, in effect, been shown the door before most sides have worked out where the ball is.

Full time read Sydney Swans 170, Richmond 56. A 114-point margin, built almost entirely in that opening half when the Swans piled on 97 points to Richmond's 46 and never once looked like being reeled in. The third and fourth quarters were just administration: 146-49 at the three-quarter mark, then 170-56 at the final siren, Richmond adding a solitary 7 points to the Swans' 24 in that last stanza.

The disposal count tells you why it never turned. Sydney finished with 437 to Richmond's 324, and did it more efficiently too, 75.5% to 72.5%. When one side is getting that much more of the ball and using it better, 114 points is what happens.

Up forward it was worse for Richmond than the score even suggests. Sydney went inside 50 seventy-two times to 47 and turned that territory into something, 26 marks inside 50 against just 5 for Richmond. That is not a contest, that is one team taking grabs in the goal square while the other watches.

The ruck battle set the platform. Sydney won hit-outs 34 to 16, backed it up with 151 contested possessions to 133 and edged the clearance count 36-34. None of those raw wins are enormous on their own, but stacked together with the intercept count, 74 to 59, they paint a side that had the ball more, won it back more, and made Richmond defend from turnover all day.

Richmond's one clear stat, oddly, was tackles: 46 to Sydney's 42. Chasing the game will do that. It is the only column where Richmond came out ahead, and it says more about how much time they spent without the ball than any defensive intent.

None of this should have been a total shock. Sydney went in rated well ahead across the park, 1188 to 1099 in midfield, 1153 to 1066 in the ruck, 1140 to 1108 in defence, with the forward lines closer at 1001 to 986. Form lined up too: Sydney had won four of their last five averaging 104.6 points a game, Richmond had won two of five averaging 75.8 and conceding 95.4. On paper this was always going to be lopsided.

Just not this lopsided. Alphr's model had Sydney at 67% to win, which held up fine, but the margin read of 14.2 points was never close, and the combined total of 150 fell 76 points short of what actually went up on the board. Four correct results from four matches, one margin badly out. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 45 | 52 | 49 | 24 | 170 |
| Richmond | 25 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Disposals | 324 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 133 |
| **36** | Clearances | 34 |
| **72** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **104** | Marks | 71 |
| **26** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 42 | Tackles | **46** |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 16 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **75.5%** | Disposal eff. | 72.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.2 but the actual margin was 114 points. The game's 226 points came in 76 points higher than the predicted 150. Sydney Swans led 97–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 114. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.03 (edge -30.0%) — model probability 67.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +55.5 @ $1.90 (edge +41.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 14 · Predicted total: 150

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 67% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 603 ELO points clear, 1765 to 1162. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Richmond.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 14.2, with the two sides combining for about 150. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 104.6pts | Avg Score | 75.8pts |
| 90.6pts | Avg Conceded | 95.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Margin | -19.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 104.6 |
| Richmond | R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 75.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 111 · 76 | 79 · 110 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.1/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 70.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 33 | 14 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.7/g | 18.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 11 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 80.1% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.5) +34% · Key Forwards 4.79/g (lg 3.82) +25% · Midfielders 2.98/g (lg 2.5) +19%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.5) +26% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.5) -5% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 25 in 11g | 22/10g (5·1·2·0·2·3·4·1·0·4) | 4/2g | 57/35g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (3·0·2·4·0·3·7·1·1·2) | 15/9g | 19/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 21' 30' 36' 38' 54' 83' 83' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 19 in 11g | 18/10g (2·3·0·1·2·0·3·3·2·2) | 6/5g | 55/39g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 51' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·2·2·4·2·0·0·3·1·1) | 16/12g | 139/106g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 62' 93' 95' 87' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 13 in 11g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 30/54g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (0·1·2·2·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 49/58g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 97' 90' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 23/124g | 32% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 14/30g | 26% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 26/70g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/19g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 3 in 1g | 13/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·0·2·2·3) | 2/6g | 46/39g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 49' 72' 80' |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 17/92g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/5g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 24/65g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 16/40g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 1 in 1g | 7/9g (0·1·1·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/54g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | no games | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 4/14g | 40% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 18/69g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (3·0·0·1·2·2·3·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (0·3·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·4·0·2·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 8 in 4g | 9/5g (1·2·3·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/15g | 1/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Noah Roberts-Thomson | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/6g (0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 25' 71' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.78 | 71% | 32 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.78 | 75% | 28 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 11 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.86 | 75% | 21 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 32 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 20.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom McCartin ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Jai Serong | 20.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 19 ✗ |
| Peter Ladhams ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 94% | 24 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom | 15.5 | $1.83 | 48% | 15 ✓ |
| James Jordon | 14.5 | $1.83 | 41% | 23 ✗ |
| Charlie Curnow | 11.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 18 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 24.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 24 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 24.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 22.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 21.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 16.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 11 ✓ |
| Seth Campbell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.86 | 71% | 12 ✓ |
| James Trezise ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Patrick Retschko | 16.5 | $1.95 | 28% | 10 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 15.5 | $1.92 | 49% | 16 ✗ |
| Ben Miller | 14.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj | 14.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 16 ✗ |
| Sam Cumming | 13.5 | $1.84 | 28% | 16 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sydney Swans 1765 · Richmond 1162 · ELO difference: 603 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sydney Swans | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1188 (best 1471) | 1099 (best 1475) | Sydney Swans +89 |
| Forwards | 1001 (best 1600) | 986 (best 1491) | Sydney Swans +16 |
| Defence | 1140 (best 1534) | 1108 (best 1589) | Sydney Swans +32 |
| Ruck | 1153 (best 1513) | 1066 (best 1392) | Sydney Swans +86 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sydney Swans |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 150 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-30 06:10 UTC (latest tip update)