Win Probability
AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 56% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 186 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 141. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
56%
Hawthorn
44%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 44%. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but St Kilda counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 211-point ELO rating advantage (1678 vs 1467). The margin model predicts St Kilda by 7.7 points with a combined total of 141.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @3.17
Lost ✗
Edge
+24.8%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +22.5 @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.2%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | R8W R9L R10W R11L R12L older → newer | 83.6 |
Hawthorn | R8L R9L R10L R11W R12W | 88.2 |
Avg Conceded
90.8
St Kilda
86.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-7.2
St Kilda
1.4
Hawthorn
Disposals
350.0
St Kilda
350.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
St Kilda predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 141 · Line: +7.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.