# St Kilda v Hawthorn — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 67 – 119 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn demolish St Kilda._

Half time: 5 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 56% / Hawthorn 44% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 28 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Tom De Koning (64'), Darcy Wilson (68'), Jack Silvagni (78' ×2), Alix Tauru (81'), Rowan Marshall (85'), Final quarter (29m 53s)Tom De Koning (62'), Marcus Windhager (69') · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (6' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Mabior Chol (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Ginnivan (32'), Mitch Lewis (34' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (90'), Blake Hardwick (64' ×4)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 56% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 12, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 May 2026, 10:02 am · Last updated: 28 May 2026, 10:57 pm_

St Kilda 67–119 Hawthorn in AFL Round 12 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn had this game locked away well before the final siren, and the scoreboard tells you exactly when the pressure came off. St Kilda never led. They trailed 20-2 at quarter time, then watched that gap balloon to 55-5 by half time as Hawthorn added 35 unanswered points to St Kilda's three. By three-quarter time it was 89-43. The margin was safe, and from there Hawthorn were just managing the clock.

The one passage where St Kilda applied real pressure came in the third term. They put on 38 points to Hawthorn's 34, a small window where the game looked like a contest rather than a procession. It trimmed nothing off the ledger that mattered, a 46-point gap at half time became a 46-point gap at three-quarter time, but it showed some sting in the St Kilda midfield when it counted least. The final term settled back into Hawthorn's favour, 30 points to 24, and the full-time score read Hawthorn 119, St Kilda 67, a 52-point win.

The underlying numbers back up what the scoreboard showed. Hawthorn had 429 disposals to St Kilda's 387, and they used it better too, hitting targets at 80.4 per cent against St Kilda's 74.9. Inside 50s went the same way, 56 to 44 in Hawthorn's favour, and that extra territory is where a lot of the third and fourth-quarter scoreboard pressure came from.

St Kilda's one clear advantage was around the contest. They won contested possessions 125 to 108, and led intercepts 69 to 67, evidence they weren't beaten for effort or bodies at the ball. But Hawthorn's ruck division dominated the taps, 39 hit-outs to 25, and that platform helped Hawthorn control clearances (32 to 31, close but enough) and, more importantly, control where the ball went next. Marks inside 50 tell the same story: Hawthorn 18, St Kilda 16, not a huge gap, but paired with the disposal and inside 50 numbers it added up to more entries and cleaner ones.

Coming in, the ratings had Hawthorn as the stronger side in three of four position groups: forwards (1058 to 1008), defence (1094 to 1084) and, on paper, a tighter contest in the ruck where St Kilda actually rated higher (1138 to 1084). That ruck rating didn't hold up. Hawthorn won hit-outs by 14 and turned that advantage into first use of the ball all afternoon.

Form lines coming in had both sides at two wins from their last five, Hawthorn's average margin a shade positive at plus 1.4, St Kilda's negative at minus 7.2. Alphr's model had St Kilda as 56 per cent favourites, expecting them to win by 7.7 points with a combined total near 141. None of that landed. The actual margin was 52 points the other way, and the game produced 186 points, 45 more than tipped. All four of the model's headline picks missed on this one, a reminder that ratings built on positional strength and recent form don't always account for a day like this, where St Kilda simply couldn't lay a glove on the scoreboard until it no longer mattered.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 2 | 3 | 38 | 24 | 67 |
| Hawthorn | 20 | 35 | 34 | 30 | 119 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Disposals | **429** |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| 31 | Clearances | **32** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 94 | Marks | **99** |
| 16 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 48 | Tackles | **56** |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| **69** | Intercepts | 67 |
| 74.9% | Disposal eff. | **80.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 56% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 186 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 141. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.17 (edge +24.8%) — model probability 56.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +22.5 @ $1.80 (edge +30.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 8 · Predicted total: 141

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Kilda are the call at 56%, but Hawthorn stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Hawthorn sit 211 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1467, so the model is backing St Kilda against the ratings gap.

On paper Hawthorn shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The model still sides with St Kilda, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has St Kilda by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 141. Lean St Kilda, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 83.6pts | Avg Score | 88.2pts |
| 90.8pts | Avg Conceded | 86.8pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L | 83.6 |
| Hawthorn | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 88.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 99 | 122 · 101 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 21.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 28 | 19 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.2/g | 18.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 71% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 7 | 11 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.9/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 15.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.1% | 82.4% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.48) +2% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.48) -8% · Key Forwards 3.45/g (lg 3.81) -9%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.67/g (lg 2.48) +8% · Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.81) +2% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.48) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (4·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·2·2) | 3/1g | 15/17g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 13 in 11g | 11/10g (0·0·3·1·1·2·2·0·2·0) | 4/4g | 58/43g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·4·1·1) | 0/2g | 17/25g | 52% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2) | 1/2g | 17/28g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 7/10g | 86/84g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/10g | 22/87g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 6 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·2) | 0/4g | 8/19g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 7/10g | 52/83g | 42% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 15/35g | 28% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 24% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 25/34g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/44g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Charlie Banfield | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.85 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 29/43g | 24% | — | 🏉 78' 76' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 40/113g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/16g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/82g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 28/137g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/44g | 12% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 30 in 8g | 38/10g (5·3·4·5·4·3·3·5·0·6) | 22/14g | 86/39g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 50' 83' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 28 in 11g | 26/10g (4·1·3·1·5·2·2·3·3·2) | 4/2g | 8/4g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 78' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (0·1·2·3·3·1·2·1·2·1) | 10/6g | 29/13g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 53' 73' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·1·3·0·2·1·1·0·2·1) | 10/8g | 21/20g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 17/12g | 66% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 12/14g | 54% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 8 in 6g | 14/10g (3·2·0·1·2·1·2·2·0·1) | 6/4g | 21/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 62' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4) | 1/12g | 2/31g | 18% | — | 🏉 64' 74' 82' 89' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 9/16g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 3/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 10/32g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Nairn | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Perez | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 5% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 11/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/64g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 14/24g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | no games | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 4/9g | 34% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 33 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 9 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 87% | 26 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.77 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 19.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 81% | 18 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 24 ✓ |
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 25 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 33 ✗ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.77 | 70% | 21 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald | 18.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 26 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1467 · Hawthorn 1678 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1091 (best 1253) | 1082 (best 1238) | St Kilda +9 |
| Forwards | 1008 (best 1493) | 1058 (best 1480) | Hawthorn +50 |
| Defence | 1084 (best 1418) | 1094 (best 1402) | Hawthorn +11 |
| Ruck | 1138 (best 1457) | 1084 (best 1256) | St Kilda +54 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 141 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-st-kilda-v-hawthorn
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-28 12:57 UTC (latest tip update)