# St Kilda v Hawthorn — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu, 28 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 12

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.17 (edge +24.8%) — model probability 56.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +22.5 @ $1.80 (edge +30.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 8 · Predicted total: 141

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 83.6pts | Avg Score | 88.2pts |
| 90.8pts | Avg Conceded | 86.8pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L | 83.6 |
| Hawthorn | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 88.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-st-kilda-v-hawthorn
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-09 05:55 UTC