# Melbourne v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 31 May, 03:15 pm AEST · TIO Traeger Park · Round 12

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.79 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +20.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 145

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Melbourne | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 109.8pts | Avg Score | 101.6pts |
| 88.8pts | Avg Conceded | 89.2pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 109.8 |
| GWS GIANTS | R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W | 101.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-melbourne-v-gws-giants
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Last updated: 2026-07-09 06:00 UTC