# Carlton v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 88 – 84 Geelong Cats

_Carlton roar back to sink Geelong Cats._

Half time: 39 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 46% / Geelong Cats 54% · MCG · Fri, 29 May, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Will Hayward (8' ×3 1st), Flynn Young (33' ×2), Jack Ison (34'), Adam Cerra (57'), Talor Byrne (73'), Brodie Kemp (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Cripps (90') · Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (14' ×2), Jack Henry (18' ×2), Jeremy Cameron (20' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Henry (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (71' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 54% | Lost |
| Carlton | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 May 2026, 12:46 pm · Last updated: 29 May 2026, 10:33 pm_

Carlton 88–84 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 12 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one pegged as a mismatch. Geelong Cats came in rated favourites at 54 percent, backed by an ELO edge of 1844 to Carlton's 1384 and recent form that wasn't close: four wins from five against Carlton's two, an average winning margin of 28.2 points, and scoring at 109.2 a game while conceding just 81. Carlton, by contrast, arrived having lost three of its last five before scraping two wins, averaging 82.6 points for and 86.2 against. On paper, no contest. On the scoreboard, Carlton won by four, 88-84 at the MCG.

The margin model wasn't fooled by the favourite tag, though. It had Carlton losing by 2.4 points, and the actual result landed at a 4-point Carlton win, close enough that the model's read on the contest was sharper than its head-to-head pick suggested. The total was the bigger miss. It predicted 142 points combined; the sides put up 172, a 30-point overshoot in a game that kept scoring right to the death.

The early quarters played out exactly as the form line promised. Geelong led 28-9 at quarter time, looking every bit the team that had won four straight coming in. By half-time it was 44-39, the margin shrinking but the Cats still in front. Then Carlton did what its recent form said it shouldn't: it took a 65-64 lead into three-quarter time and made it count, closing out 88-84.

The ruck numbers tell an odd story. Carlton went in rated stronger at the stoppage, 1117 to 1104, but Geelong won hit-outs 43 to 29. That dominance never turned into control, though, because Carlton owned the contest everywhere else that matters: 44 clearances to 31, 136 contested possessions to 123, 66 tackles to 63. Whoever was winning the taps, Carlton was winning the footy.

And there was plenty of it. Carlton racked up 395 disposals to Geelong's 359. But Geelong used the ball better, hitting targets at 76.9 percent efficiency against Carlton's 72.9, and turned that precision into territory: 54 inside 50s to 48, and a much cleaner job once the ball got there, with 15 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 8 and 105 marks overall to 94. That's a side doing plenty right forward of the ball. It just wasn't enough against a team that kept winning it back through the middle.

That's really the whole game in two numbers: Carlton's grunt at the coalface against Geelong's polish going forward. The pre-match ratings hinted at it too. Carlton held the edge in defence, 1115 to 1093, and forward structure, 1010 to 981, even though Geelong's midfield was rated marginally stronger, 1085 to 1082. On the day, Carlton's edges at both ends outweighed Geelong's edge through the guts.

For the model, three from four is a solid return. It nailed the margin band, correctly backed Carlton to cover the 25.5-point line, and called the total under 176.5. The only miss was the top-line pick, tipping Geelong when Carlton found four points it wasn't supposed to have.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 9 | 30 | 26 | 23 | 88 |
| Geelong Cats | 28 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 84 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **395** | Disposals | 359 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| **44** | Clearances | 31 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 94 | Marks | **105** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| **66** | Tackles | 63 |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| 56 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 72.9% | Disposal eff. | **76.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Carlton defied the model's 54% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carlton by 2.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 172 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 142. Carlton trailed 39–44 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–84. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 25.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 176.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.25 (edge -25.5%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Geelong Cats are the call at 54%, but Carlton stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Geelong Cats sit 460 ELO points clear, 1844 to 1384. Form leans Geelong Cats' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Carlton.

Geelong Cats own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. The margin model has Carlton by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 142. Lean Geelong Cats, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 82.6pts | Avg Score | 109.2pts |
| 86.2pts | Avg Conceded | 81.0pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 28.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 82.6 |
| Geelong Cats | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 109.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 89 · 98 | 121 · 101 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 11.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 64.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 49 | 30 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.4/g | 26.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 72.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 15 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 12.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.8% | 78.2% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 4.02/g (lg 3.82) +5% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.45) -6% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.5) -14%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.5) +42% · Defenders 1.21/g (lg 1.14) +6% · Forwards 4.62/g (lg 4.45) +4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 21 in 11g | 21/10g (2·3·2·2·3·3·1·3·0·2) | 4/8g | 41/46g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (1·0·3·0·2·4·3·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 5/22g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 67' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·2·1·2·1·1·0·3·2·1) | 16/10g | 102/51g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·2·2·1·0) | 2/7g | 8/8g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·2) | 15/12g | 29/25g | 68% | — | 🏉 8' 76' 64' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 6/11g | 40/92g | 46% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (3·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/35g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 5 in 9g | 8/10g (3·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/12g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 15/50g | 24% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 16/51g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 13/38g | 26% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/44g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 1/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 16/42g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 33% | — | 🏉 33' 45' |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 7/79g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/34g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 30 in 10g | 30/10g (3·0·1·3·10·3·3·1·3·3) | 43/13g | 129/48g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 36' 84' 71' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 22 in 11g | 21/10g (5·0·4·2·1·2·3·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 17/13g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 19 in 11g | 18/10g (3·1·0·0·0·1·4·3·5·1) | 0/1g | 18/12g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (2·1·3·2·1·0·1·4·2·2) | 11/7g | 55/32g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 66' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 10 in 11g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 24/18g | 68% | — | 🏉 14' 25' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (0·3·0·1·2·1·1·2·1·1) | 12/15g | 60/68g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 8 in 9g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·2) | 3/6g | 27/35g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 4/6g | 9/19g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 20/34g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 8/42g | 8% | — | 🏉 18' 88' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jake Kolodjashnij | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/54g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 25/81g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 4/46g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/54g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 24/39g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/14g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 26.5 | $1.92 | 52% | 30 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 71% | 27 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 22.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 22.5 | $1.93 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 19.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 22 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Ben Ainsworth ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 25 ✗ |
| Will Hayward ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 17 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 35 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 28.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 25 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 13 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 21 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 22 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 21 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 19.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.74 | 64% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1384 · Geelong Cats 1844 · ELO difference: 459 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | Geelong Cats | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1082 (best 1351) | 1085 (best 1478) | Geelong Cats +3 |
| Forwards | 1010 (best 1523) | 981 (best 1472) | Carlton +29 |
| Defence | 1115 (best 1392) | 1093 (best 1600) | Carlton +22 |
| Ruck | 1117 (best 1191) | 1104 (best 1302) | Carlton +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Carlton |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Geelong Cats predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-29 12:33 UTC (latest tip update)