# Carlton v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri, 29 May, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 12

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.25 (edge -25.5%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 142

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 82.6pts | Avg Score | 109.2pts |
| 86.2pts | Avg Conceded | 81.0pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 28.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 82.6 |
| Geelong Cats | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 109.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-carlton-v-geelong-cats
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-09 05:55 UTC