AFL | Round 12

Carlton defied the model's 54% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carlton by 2.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 172 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 142. Carlton trailed 39–44 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–84. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 176.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%Geelong CatsFavourite

Carlton

46%

Geelong Cats

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Geelong Cats hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. Geelong Cats carry a 460-point ELO rating advantage (1844 vs 1384). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 2.4 points with a combined total of 142.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Geelong Cats to Win @1.25

Lost ✗

Edge

-25.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Carlton +25.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+27.9%

✓

Margin Band

Carlton 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 176.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Carlton	R7L R8L R9L R10W R11W older → newer	82.6
Geelong Cats	R7L R8W R9W R10W R11W	109.2

Avg Conceded

86.2

Carlton

81.0

Geelong Cats

Avg Margin

-3.6

Carlton

28.2

Geelong Cats

Disposals

350.0

Carlton

350.0

Geelong Cats

Inside 50s

50.0

Carlton

50.0

Geelong Cats

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAR

1384Overall1844

GEE

ELO difference: -459 in favour of Geelong Cats

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1082Midfield1085

Best: 1351EvenBest: 1478

1010Forwards981

Best: 1523CAR +29Best: 1472

1115Defence1093

Best: 1392CAR +22Best: 1600

1117Ruck1104

Best: 1191CAR +13Best: 1302

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAR

Stat

GEE

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

82.6pts

Avg Score

109.2pts

86.2pts

Avg Conceded

81.0pts

-3.6pts

Avg Margin

28.2pts

350.0

Disposals

350.0

50.0

Inside 50s

50.0

60.0

Tackles

60.0

35.0

Clearances

35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Cats

Midfield ELO11.0%

—

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Cats

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Carlton

Defensive ELO8.0%

Carlton

Scoring Form8.0%

Cats

Venue Advantage7.0%

—

Model Confidence

54%

Geelong Cats predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 142 · Line: +2.4

3/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props