Win Probability
AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 52% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 25 points. The game's 181 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 144. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 182.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
52%
Fremantle
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Brisbane Lions a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Fremantle carry a 233-point ELO rating advantage (1763 vs 1530). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 3.9 points with a combined total of 144.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.67
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.0%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +6.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Margin Band
Brisbane Lions 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | R7W R8W R9W R10L R11L older → newer | 106.8 |
Fremantle | R7W R8W R9W R10W R11W | 102.6 |
Avg Conceded
105.2
Brisbane Lions
79.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
1.6
Brisbane Lions
22.8
Fremantle
Disposals
350.0
Brisbane Lions
350.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Fremantle hold the ELO advantage (1763 vs 1530), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.67).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 144 · Line: +3.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.