# Brisbane Lions v Fremantle — AFL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 78 – 103 Fremantle

_Fremantle see off Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 28 – 49 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 52% / Fremantle 48% · Gabba · Sat, 30 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft (18' ×2), Zac Bailey (43'), Charlie Cameron (45' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cody Curtin (69'), Levi Ashcroft (87'), Logan Morris (95' Tipped ⚡), Jaspa Fletcher (81'), Sam Draper (88') · Fremantle: Isaiah Dudley (6' 1st), Patrick Voss (14' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Matthew Johnson (34'), Jye Amiss (40' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Sam Switkowski (42'), Luke Jackson (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 52% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 12, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 May 2026, 12:46 pm · Last updated: 30 May 2026, 07:20 pm_

Brisbane Lions 78–103 Fremantle in AFL Round 12 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions did plenty right on Saturday and still finished 25 points short. They won the clearance count 42 to 30, they won the contested possession battle 118 to 113, and they went inside 50 a full 13 more times than Fremantle, 59 to 46. On paper that's the platform for a win. On the scoreboard it read 103 to 78 to Fremantle.

The gap is in what happened once the ball got inside forward 50, and what happened when Fremantle had it. Brisbane's forward line only turned that territory into 9 marks inside 50, Fremantle managed 15 from far fewer entries. That's the difference between a side flooding the ball forward and a side actually finishing. Fremantle's disposal efficiency, 77.5% to Brisbane's 69.5%, tells the same story from the other end: better decisions, cleaner hands, less wasted opportunity.

The scoreboard had already made its mind up early. Fremantle led 23 to 10 at the first change and were out to 49 to 28 by half time, effectively doubling Brisbane's tally. By three-quarter time it was 89 to 49, a 40-point buffer that Brisbane simply couldn't find a way back from. The last quarter was a formality, Fremantle adding 14 more to Brisbane's 29 to close it out at 103 to 78.

Fremantle's edge showed up all over the ledger where it mattered most: 45 tackles to 36, 61 intercepts to 56, and 355 disposals to Brisbane's 298. Brisbane had more of the ball in dangerous areas, Fremantle had more of the ball, full stop, and used it better when they had it.

Some of that traces straight back to the pre-match numbers. Fremantle's ruck rating of 1165 against Brisbane's 1076 was the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and a 35-hitout-to-36 split doesn't sound like a rout, but it was enough platform for Fremantle's midfield and outside game to do damage. Fremantle also arrived in career-best form, five wins from five, averaging a 22.8-point margin and conceding just 79.8 points a game. Brisbane's form line read three wins and two losses, with an average margin of only 1.6. One of these sides was cruising, the other was scraping by, and Saturday looked exactly like that gap suggests it should.

Alphr's model had Brisbane Lions as 52% favourites and picked them by 3.9 points on a combined total of 144. None of that held up. Fremantle won by 25, comfortably covering the 6.5-point line, and the 181 points scored blew 37 past the predicted total. The model still landed the under on 182.5, and went 2 from 4 on the match overall. A reminder that ratings on paper, even close ones, don't always survive contact with the way a game is actually played.

Brisbane can point to the clearance count and the inside 50 differential and say the pressure was there. Fremantle can point to the scoreboard and say none of that mattered without efficiency to match it. On this occasion, they're both right.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 10 | 18 | 21 | 29 | 78 |
| Fremantle | 23 | 26 | 40 | 14 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 298 | Disposals | **355** |
| **118** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| **42** | Clearances | 30 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **81** | Marks | 79 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 36 | Tackles | **45** |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 56 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 69.5% | Disposal eff. | **77.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 52% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 25 points. The game's 181 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 144. The model went 2/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 6.5-point line. The under 182.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.67 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +6.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 144

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Brisbane Lions and Fremantle. The model can't split them, landing on Brisbane Lions at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Fremantle sit 233 ELO points clear, 1763 to 1530, so the model is backing Brisbane Lions against the ratings gap. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Brisbane Lions.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 144. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 106.8pts | Avg Score | 102.6pts |
| 105.2pts | Avg Conceded | 79.8pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | 22.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L | 106.8 |
| Fremantle | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 102.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 126 · 114 | 105 · 76 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 15.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.4% | 72.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 33 | 45 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 169/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.9/g | 28.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 2 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.3% | 82.5% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.47) -6% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.48) -12% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.82) -14%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.47) -1% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.5) -4% · Key Forwards 3.63/g (lg 3.82) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 25 in 11g | 21/10g (2·2·0·1·3·4·2·2·3·2) | 30/14g | 182/96g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 71' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 24 in 10g | 24/10g (3·2·3·0·3·2·4·4·2·1) | 4/1g | 47/24g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 95' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 21 in 11g | 19/10g (1·2·4·1·1·1·4·2·0·3) | 0/1g | 36/30g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·2·2·2·0·3·4·0·1·0) | 12/8g | 86/87g | 76% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·3) | 5/8g | 80/87g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 7 in 5g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·1·2) | 2/8g | 10/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/10g | 54% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 5 in 8g | 10/10g (1·4·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 5/11g | 71/107g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/17g | 35% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 9/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 39/85g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 14/32g | 34% | — | 🏉 18' 77' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 12/37g | 22% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/37g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Cody Curtin | KF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/43g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 44/94g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 10/93g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/121g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 7/46g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 26 in 11g | 25/10g (0·2·4·2·5·3·0·3·2·4) | 6/4g | 1/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 54' 71' 73' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 25 in 11g | 23/10g (4·4·2·0·1·3·3·2·2·2) | 7/4g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 76' 89' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1·5·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 68' 83' 68' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 15 in 11g | 12/10g (3·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 76% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 13 in 11g | 11/10g (2·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·2·1) | 7/10g | 4/8g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 2/3g | 66% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 8 in 6g | 12/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·1·3·1·1) | 6/5g | 0/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/1g | 46% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 14/13g | 14/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 28.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 25.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 26 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 13 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 12 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 20 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Keidean Coleman ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 6 ✓ |
| Bruce Reville | 15.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 12 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 7 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 12.5 | $1.84 | 44% | 10 ✓ |
| Conor McKenna ⚡ Under | 11.5 | $1.85 | 77% | 11 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 24 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 23.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 22 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 20 ✗ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.96 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 15.5 | $1.91 | 45% | 13 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman | 15.5 | $1.91 | 41% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Treacy ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.79 | 70% | 16 ✗ |
| Judd McVee | 14.5 | $1.85 | 46% | 20 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Fremantle hold the ELO advantage (1763 vs 1530), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.67). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Brisbane Lions 1530 · Fremantle 1763 · ELO difference: 233 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Brisbane Lions | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1125 (best 1600) | 1108 (best 1515) | Brisbane Lions +18 |
| Forwards | 1030 (best 1600) | 1017 (best 1397) | Brisbane Lions +13 |
| Defence | 1113 (best 1463) | 1120 (best 1377) | Fremantle +7 |
| Ruck | 1076 (best 1323) | 1165 (best 1341) | Fremantle +89 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 144 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-30 09:20 UTC (latest tip update)