# Western Bulldogs v Melbourne — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 93 – 90 Melbourne

_Western Bulldogs muzzle a gallant Melbourne._

Half time: 51 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 48% / Melbourne 52% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 24 May, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Rhylee West (8' ×2 1st), Ed Richards (11' ×3), Will Lewis (14'), Marcus Bontempelli (40' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Jones (42' ×2), Aaron Naughton (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (91') · Melbourne: Bailey Laurie (16'), Koltyn Tholstrup (38'), Harry Petty (50'), Max Gawn (62'), Harvey Langford (63' ×2), Trent Rivers (65'), Daniel Turner (79'), Harry Sharp (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kade Chandler (93'), Paddy Cross (97'), Ed Langdon (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 52% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 10:29 am_

Western Bulldogs 93–90 Melbourne in AFL Round 11 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Melbourne narrowly favoured, 52 per cent to win, and expected the Bulldogs to get up by 5.6 points if they did. Final score: Western Bulldogs 93, Melbourne 90. The Dogs won, the margin came in at 3. Close enough to call the read sharp, not close enough to call it exact.

Worth remembering what Melbourne brought into this one. Four wins from their last five, average score of 112.6, an average margin of plus-22. The Bulldogs, by contrast, had won once in five, were being beaten by an average of 32.6 points, and had lost three straight before a solitary win. On paper this was a mismatch in trajectory. On the day it wasn't.

The Dogs led throughout, at least on the numbers we've got. Nineteen points to nine at quarter time, 51-43 at the half. That's when the read looked like it might blow out well past the model's 5.6. Instead Melbourne started clawing it back. By three-quarter time it was 78-76, the margin down to two, and Melbourne well and truly in the fight. The Dogs found three more points than Melbourne in the last quarter to get home. Not exactly the coast to the line the earlier scoreboard suggested.

Where it was actually won: clearances and forward entries. Western Bulldogs took the midfield battle 45 to 36 on clearances, backed a midfield rating of 1103 against Melbourne's 1088, and turned that into 56 inside 50s to 44. Once it got there they were efficient, 13 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's nine. That's the difference between a forward line getting looks and a forward line just getting the ball dumped in.

Melbourne's method was different and it nearly worked. They dominated hit-outs, 50 to 25, which is a lopsided number for a team that still lost the clearance count, and they read the ball in defence better too, 74 intercepts to 62. The Bulldogs held a stronger pre-match ruck rating, 1232 to 1201, but that didn't translate to the hit-out count on the day, a reminder that ruck taps alone don't decide clearances. Melbourne's defence rating, 1153 against the Bulldogs' 1072, showed up in those intercept numbers even in a losing performance.

Disposal efficiency was a coin flip, 73.2 per cent for the Dogs against 73.1 for Melbourne, and total disposals favoured the Bulldogs 355 to 327.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 19 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 93 |
| Melbourne | 9 | 34 | 33 | 14 | 90 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **366** | Disposals | 336 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 141 |
| **45** | Clearances | 36 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **80** | Marks | 78 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 62 | Tackles | **72** |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| 67 | Intercepts | **75** |
| 72.4% | Disposal eff. | **72.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 52% prediction for Melbourne, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 5.6 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 4.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 190.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.75 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 190

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Western Bulldogs and Melbourne. The model can't split them, landing on Melbourne at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Melbourne sit 70 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1486. Form leans Melbourne's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Western Bulldogs.

Melbourne own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Western Bulldogs by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 190. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 70.8pts | Avg Score | 112.6pts |
| 103.4pts | Avg Conceded | 90.6pts |
| -32.6pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 70.8 |
| Melbourne | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W | 112.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 83 · 92 | 97 · 103 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.4/g | 23.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.1/g | 8.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 68.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 33 | 49 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 24.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 4 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.9% | 78.6% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.13) +22% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8% · Forwards 4.55/g (lg 4.46) +2%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8% · Key Forwards 4.07/g (lg 3.82) +7% · Midfielders 2.54/g (lg 2.5) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 26 in 10g | 26/10g (2·6·3·3·1·3·1·2·2·3) | 19/12g | 154/83g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 96' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (3·3·1·1·0·0·2·2·1·1) | 20/17g | 159/139g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2) | 3/4g | 52/47g | 64% | — | 🏉 8' 74' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·3·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/12g | 39% | — | 🏉 42' 46' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 33/74g | 58% | — | 🏉 11' 47' 74' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/25g | 38% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Will Lewis | KF | 5 in 3g | 5/3g (1·2·2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 4 in 5g | 8/7g (2·2·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 76% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/36g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 22/43g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 33/53g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 10/25g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 17/20g | 45/65g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 50/95g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/30g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jaques | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/11g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 35/49g | 4% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (6·0·0·1·0·3·0·2·5·2) | 4/3g | 8/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·4·2·1·2) | 15/10g | 13/10g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 14 in 9g | 17/10g (3·1·2·4·1·2·2·0·0·2) | 25/12g | 32/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·1·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' 70' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (0·0·2·2·1·3·1·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 5/3g | 60% | — | 🏉 63' 70' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·1·3·1·1·1·1) | 5/4g | 7/5g | 68% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 9/17g | 14/28g | 42% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 8/19g | 36% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 7/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 5/8g | 7/12g | 40% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 40/100g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 21% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | 1 in 5g | 4/9g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Paddy Cross | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/11g | 14% | — | 🏉 65' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 31 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 27.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 30 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| Connor Budarick ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.93 | 83% | 20 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 20.5 | $1.90 | 28% | 23 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $2.00 | 43% | 18 ✓ |
| Lachie Jaques | 16.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 8 ✓ |
| Arthur Jones ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.88 | 94% | 12 ✓ |
| Michael Sellwood | 13.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 10 ✓ |
| Rhylee West | 12.5 | $1.84 | 46% | 12 ✓ |
| Aaron Naughton | 9.5 | $1.84 | 43% | 18 ✗ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 73% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 23.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 23 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 21.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 22 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 16 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 20.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Caleb Windsor | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Kade Chandler ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 19 ✗ |
| Jake Lever | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 7 ✓ |
| Blake Howes | 16.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Harvey Langford | 15.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 16 ✗ |
| Changkuoth Jiath | 14.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Western Bulldogs 1486 · Melbourne 1556 · ELO difference: 70 in favour of Melbourne

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1103 (best 1248) | 1088 (best 1342) | Western Bulldogs +14 |
| Forwards | 1034 (best 1541) | 1031 (best 1471) | Western Bulldogs +3 |
| Defence | 1072 (best 1216) | 1153 (best 1488) | Melbourne +81 |
| Ruck | 1232 (best 1495) | 1201 (best 1461) | Western Bulldogs +31 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Melbourne |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Melbourne |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Melbourne |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Melbourne |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Melbourne predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 190 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 00:29 UTC (latest tip update)