Win Probability
AI Game Review
Richmond defied the model's 58% prediction for Essendon, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 18 points. The game's 130 points came in 66 points lower than the predicted 196. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Richmond
42%
Essendon
58%
AI Match Overview
Essendon hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Essendon ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form. Essendon carry a 99-point ELO rating advantage (1216 vs 1117). Recent form favours Richmond with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Richmond by 5.3 points with a combined total of 196.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @1.47
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.3%
Line / Spread
Richmond +13.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.8%
Margin Band
Richmond 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 167.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | R6L R7L R8W R9L R10L older → newer | 72.0 |
Essendon | R6L R7L R8L R9L R10L | 79.8 |
Avg Conceded
110.2
Richmond
121.2
Essendon
Avg Margin
-38.2
Richmond
-41.4
Essendon
Disposals
350.0
Richmond
350.0
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Essendon predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 196 · Line: +5.3
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.