# Richmond v Essendon — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Richmond v Essendon
Fri, 22 May, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 11

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.47 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +18.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 5 · Predicted total: 196

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 72.0pts | Avg Score | 79.8pts |
| 110.2pts | Avg Conceded | 121.2pts |
| -38.2pts | Avg Margin | -41.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R6 L · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 72.0 |
| Essendon | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 79.8 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-richmond-v-essendon
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC