Win Probability
AI Game Review
Carlton defied the model's 50% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 150 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 171. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
50%
Carlton
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Port Adelaide a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Port Adelaide carry a 88-point ELO rating advantage (1400 vs 1313). The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 2.5 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.47
Lost ✗
Edge
-17.9%
Line / Spread
Carlton +12.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.0%
Margin Band
Port Adelaide 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.88
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | R6L R7W R8L R9L R10L older → newer | 80.2 |
Carlton | R6L R7L R8L R9L R10W | 80.8 |
Avg Conceded
80.4
Port Adelaide
92.2
Carlton
Avg Margin
-0.2
Port Adelaide
-11.4
Carlton
Disposals
350.0
Port Adelaide
350.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +2.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.