# Port Adelaide v Carlton — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 58 – 92 Carlton

_Carlton see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 23 – 58 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 50% / Carlton 50% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 23 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jason Horne-Francis (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Georgiades (41' Tipped ⚡), Jack Whitlock (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (87' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 5s)Todd Marshall (63') · Carlton: Mitch McGovern (8' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Ison (11'), Talor Byrne (14'), Sam Walsh (19'), George Hewett (25'), Patrick Cripps (34'), Will Hayward (37' ×2), Brodie Kemp (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (66'), Harry McKay (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 50% | Lost |
| Carlton | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 11:00 am_

Port Adelaide 58–92 Carlton in AFL Round 11 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton's second quarter is where this game turned. Port Adelaide had already conceded an 18-point start in the first term, going down 30-12, but the margin still felt manageable. Then Carlton put on 28 points to Port's 11 across the second quarter, and a competitive game became a 35-point margin at the main break, 58-23. Port Adelaide never recovered from that burst.

The home side found some answers after half time, winning the third quarter 14-10 to trim the gap slightly, but 45 points down at the final change was always going to be too much to chase. Carlton added 24 more in the last quarter to Port's 21, and the game finished 92-58. A 34-point margin, and it was built almost entirely in that one quarter.

Strip away the scoreboard and the underlying numbers tell a stranger story. Port Adelaide actually won the clearance count, 35 to 27, laid more tackles, 53 to 43, and won the ruck battle too, 30 hit-outs to 25. Those are usually the numbers of a team controlling the midfield, not one losing by five goals. It didn't matter here.

What decided it was volume and precision with the football. Carlton finished with 404 disposals to Port's 325, a gap of nearly 80 possessions across the game, and used it far more efficiently too, hitting targets at 76.2% compared to Port's 72.6%. Carlton simply had the ball more often and did more with it when they did.

Carlton's other edge came in reading the play in defence. They pulled down 72 intercepts to Port Adelaide's 63 and controlled the air with 108 marks to 88. Inside 50 entries were nearly even, 50 to 48, and marks inside 50 barely separated the sides, 18 to 16, but Carlton kept turning the ball back the other way at the source, which meant Port's forward entries rarely counted for much.

Nothing in the form line beforehand pointed to this margin. Both clubs had won one of their last five games, sat within a point of each other on scoring average (80.2 to 80.8), and were locked dead even on disposals, inside 50s, tackles and clearances across that stretch. Carlton had actually been the leakier side defensively, conceding 92.2 points a game on average with a minus 11.4 average margin, while Port Adelaide had been tighter at the back, conceding just 80.4. The positional ratings had the two clubs close across the park too, Port slightly ahead in midfield and ruck, Carlton marginally stronger in defence and attack.

Alphr's own model had Port Adelaide as 2.5-point favourites and pegged the combined score at 171.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 12 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 58 |
| Carlton | 30 | 28 | 10 | 24 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Disposals | **404** |
| **115** | Contested poss. | 114 |
| **35** | Clearances | 27 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| 88 | Marks | **108** |
| 16 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| **53** | Tackles | 43 |
| **30** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| 63 | Intercepts | **72** |
| 72.6% | Disposal eff. | **76.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Carlton defied the model's 50% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 150 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 171. The model went 1/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 12.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.47 (edge -17.9%) — model probability 50.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 3 · Predicted total: 171

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Port Adelaide and Carlton. The model can't split them, landing on Port Adelaide at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Port Adelaide sit 88 ELO points clear, 1400 to 1313.

Port Adelaide own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Port Adelaide by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 171. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 80.2pts | Avg Score | 80.8pts |
| 80.4pts | Avg Conceded | 92.2pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | -11.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 80.2 |
| Carlton | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W | 80.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 80 | 79 · 93 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 16.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 8.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 27 | 29 · 46 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 152/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.1/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 5 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.3/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 77.4% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.5) +44% · Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.14) +8% · Forwards 4.68/g (lg 4.45) +5%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Rucks 0.58/g (lg 0.5) +16% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.14) +11% · Key Forwards 3.8/g (lg 3.82) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 26 in 10g | 26/10g (3·2·3·2·2·2·4·3·4·1) | 20/7g | 116/57g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (2·2·2·1·2·1·2·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 19/12g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (2·0·3·2·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 3/1g | 6/8g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 84' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·3·1·2·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 43/44g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 90' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 7/13g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 1/2g | 14/19g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 47/126g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 6/27g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/35g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 32/82g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 25/68g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/15g | 55/140g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/79g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/71g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/8g | 86/65g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tom Anastasopoulos | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (0·2·3·2·2·3·3·1·3·0) | 12/13g | 45/35g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 77' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·1·0·3·0·2·4·3·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 50' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 13 in 9g | 14/10g (1·1·2·1·2·1·1·0·3·2) | 19/7g | 11/9g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·0·1·0·2·2·0·2·2·1) | 5/8g | 7/12g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·1·1·0·3) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·3·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 7/12g | 9/11g | 42% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 6 in 9g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 10/9g | 11/11g | 66% | — | 🏉 37' 78' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 4 in 8g | 9/10g (2·3·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 15/17g | 52% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 4/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | no games | 5/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·2) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 30.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 28 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 21.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 5 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 21.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 32 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.96 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 14 ✓ |
| Logan Evans | 17.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Christian Moraes ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.89 | 87% | 11 ✓ |
| Aliir Aliir | 15.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 8 ✓ |
| Jacob Wehr | 14.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 11 ✓ |
| Joe Richards | 14.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Ewan Mackinlay | 13.5 | $1.94 | 41% | 14 ✗ |
| Joe Berry | 13.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 15 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 28 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 27 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Nic Newman | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 20.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 26 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 20.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Ben Ainsworth ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.83 | 69% | 17 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 18 ✗ |
| Lachlan Cowan ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.83 | 69% | 14 ✓ |
| Will Hayward ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 76% | 19 ✗ |
| Matthew Carroll | 14.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 0 ✓ |
| Harry McKay | 12.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 19 ✗ |
| Francis Evans | 12.5 | $1.82 | 61% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1400 · Carlton 1313 · ELO difference: 88 in favour of Port Adelaide

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1106 (best 1563) | 1082 (best 1351) | Port Adelaide +25 |
| Forwards | 998 (best 1469) | 1010 (best 1523) | Carlton +12 |
| Defence | 1105 (best 1600) | 1115 (best 1392) | Carlton +10 |
| Ruck | 1119 (best 1513) | 1117 (best 1191) | Port Adelaide +2 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Port Adelaide predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 171 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-port-adelaide-v-carlton
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-25 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)