# North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 111 – 105 Gold Coast SUNS

_North Melbourne hit back to deny Gold Coast SUNS from 38 down._

Half time: 37 – 75 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 49% / Gold Coast SUNS 51% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 23 May, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Jack Darling (12' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Konstanty (21' ×2), Jy Simpkin (32'), Nick Larkey (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Trembath (91' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tristan Xerri (75'), Zane Duursma (85'), Charlie Spargo (91'), Luke Davies-Uniacke (96'), Cameron Zurhaar (99') · Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (5' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (10'), Ben King (14' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Gulbin (19'), Ben Long (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (42'), Bailey Humphrey (52'), Ned Moyle (54'), Noah Anderson (76'), Zeke Uwland (67'), Christian Petracca (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 51% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 11:16 am_

North Melbourne 111–105 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 11 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne beat Gold Coast SUNS 111-105 at Marvel Stadium, but for three quarters it was the SUNS setting the pace and North Melbourne chasing it. Gold Coast led 42-25 at quarter time, stretched that to 75-37 by half time, and were still up 85-65 at the last change. That's a 20-point buffer with a quarter to go, the sort of margin sides usually just see out. North Melbourne had other ideas, running out 46-20 in the last term to steal it.

That final-quarter surge is where the whole game turned. Before it, Gold Coast had controlled every scoreboard checkpoint. After it, North Melbourne had the trophy. Nothing in the stat sheet points to one single moment doing it: it reads more like accumulated pressure finally cracking Gold Coast's grip late.

The disposal numbers back that up. North Melbourne finished with 354 disposals to Gold Coast's 324, and used the ball better too, hitting targets at 83.6% compared to 77.5%. Over four quarters that gap in accuracy means a lot more usable possessions landing where they're meant to.

Gold Coast, though, won the fight for the ball itself. They had 122 contested possessions to North Melbourne's 108, took 44 clearances to 41, and dominated at the ruck contest, 65 hit-outs to 30. That ruck gap lines up with the pre-match ratings, which had Gold Coast rated 1150 to North Melbourne's 1094 in that department. Winning it by that much and still losing the game says plenty about what happened once the ball actually hit the ground.

North Melbourne's edge showed up closer to goal. Sixteen marks inside 50 to Gold Coast's seven is a big gap, and it points to a side taking the air out of the contest near the line rather than scrapping for crumbs. Add 97 marks overall to 86, and 66 tackles to 59, and the picture is a team controlling territory and pressure everywhere except the raw clearance count.

Form and ratings both had Gold Coast the stronger side coming in. They'd won four of their last five to North Melbourne's one, and carried an average winning margin of 6.8 points against North Melbourne's minus 11.4. The positional ratings agreed, favouring Gold Coast in the midfield, def

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 25 | 12 | 28 | 46 | 111 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 42 | 33 | 10 | 20 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **354** | Disposals | 324 |
| 108 | Contested poss. | **122** |
| 41 | Clearances | **44** |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| **97** | Marks | 86 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **66** | Tackles | 59 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **65** |
| 44 | Intercepts | 44 |
| **83.6%** | Disposal eff. | 77.5% |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting North Melbourne by 4.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 216 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 184. North Melbourne trailed 37–75 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 111–105. The model went 3/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 9.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The over 182.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.58 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 51.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 182.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 5 · Predicted total: 184

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between North Melbourne and Gold Coast SUNS. The model can't split them, landing on Gold Coast SUNS at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Gold Coast SUNS sit 299 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1339. Form leans Gold Coast SUNS's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for North Melbourne.

Gold Coast SUNS own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has North Melbourne by 4.9, with the two sides combining for about 184. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 95.2pts | Avg Score | 90.4pts |
| 106.6pts | Avg Conceded | 83.6pts |
| -11.4pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 95.2 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 90.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 88 | 109 · 78 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.1/g | 25.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.3% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 39 | 21 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.7/g | 16.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.2% | 71.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 16 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.9/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 83.6% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.14) +4% · Forwards 4.5/g (lg 4.46) +1% · Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.48) +0%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.5) +36% · Key Forwards 5.16/g (lg 3.81) +35% · Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.14) +30%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (4·6·2·2·1·2·4·1·0·1) | 23/11g | 138/64g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 73' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 20 in 10g | 20/10g (1·2·1·2·1·6·2·1·1·3) | 6/6g | 60/40g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 77' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (3·0·2·3·2·3·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 14/6g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' 70' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·0·3·3·0·2·0·3·2·0) | 2/1g | 14/16g | 49% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·3·2·1) | 30/16g | 66/45g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 27' 86' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 100/68g | 66% | — | 🏉 99' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 6/12g | 34/84g | 44% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 13/35g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 5/4g | 7/13g | 38% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/23g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/27g | 18% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/21g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/12g | 41% | — | 🏉 21' 57' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 24/61g | 26% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/15g | 36/46g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 14/35g | 24% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 11/105g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 30/103g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 33 in 10g | 33/10g (4·5·7·3·2·3·2·2·4·1) | 21/8g | 41/18g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 14 in 8g | 15/10g (0·1·3·4·0·3·0·2·1·1) | 9/11g | 27/20g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·0·3·2·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 31/52g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 79' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 9 in 5g | 13/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·2·2·0·3) | 3/2g | 5/6g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 33' 46' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 7 in 7g | 11/10g (1·3·0·4·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/10g | 48% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 1/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/17g | 9/29g | 46% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 5/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 19% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 6/18g | 34% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 12/25g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/6g (0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 9/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 25.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 22.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.77 | 49% | 29 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 19.5 | $2.05 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw | 19.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 13 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 12 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 15.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 9 ✓ |
| Cameron Zurhaar | 14.5 | $1.79 | 65% | 15 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 25.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 75% | 15 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca | 23.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 22.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 67% | 12 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 16.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 15.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 16 ✗ |
| Sam Collins | 13.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 15 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 12.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 13 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — North Melbourne 1339 · Gold Coast SUNS 1638 · ELO difference: 299 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1111 (best 1475) | 1112 (best 1475) | Gold Coast SUNS +1 |
| Forwards | 996 (best 1525) | 912 (best 1418) | North Melbourne +84 |
| Defence | 1080 (best 1302) | 1113 (best 1463) | Gold Coast SUNS +33 |
| Ruck | 1094 (best 1600) | 1150 (best 1341) | Gold Coast SUNS +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 184 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 01:16 UTC (latest tip update)