Win Probability
AI Game Review
North Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting North Melbourne by 4.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 216 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 184. North Melbourne trailed 37–75 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 111–105. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The over 182.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
49%
Gold Coast SUNS
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 299-point ELO rating advantage (1638 vs 1339). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 4.9 points with a combined total of 184.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.58
Lost ✗
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +9.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.4%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 182.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | R6W R7L R8L R9L R10L older → newer | 95.2 |
Gold Coast SUNS | R6W R7L R8W R9W R10W | 90.4 |
Avg Conceded
106.6
North Melbourne
83.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-11.4
North Melbourne
6.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
350.0
North Melbourne
350.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 184 · Line: +4.9
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