Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. The game's 141 points came in 37 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
56%
Adelaide Crows
44%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Adelaide Crows are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1654 vs 1625). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 2.3 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.4%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +13.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.2%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | R7W R8L R9L R10L R11W older → newer | 86.8 |
Adelaide Crows | R7L R8W R9W R10W R11L | 89.6 |
Avg Conceded
86.0
Hawthorn
80.6
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
0.8
Hawthorn
9.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
350.0
Hawthorn
350.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: +2.3
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.