# Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu, 21 May, 07:30 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 11

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.45 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 55.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 2 · Predicted total: 178

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 86.8pts | Avg Score | 89.6pts |
| 86.0pts | Avg Conceded | 80.6pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 86.8 |
| Adelaide Crows | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 89.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-hawthorn-v-adelaide-crows
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:35 UTC