# Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 75 – 66 Adelaide Crows

_Hawthorn survive a scare against Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 47 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 56% / Adelaide Crows 44% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Thu, 21 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Blake Hardwick (6' ×4 1st), Nick Watson (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lloyd Meek (38'), Mitch Lewis (44' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (60'), Mabior Chol (86' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (9' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (11'), Josh Rachele (21' Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (88'), Darcy Fogarty (67' Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (69'), Callum Ah Chee (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 56% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs Adelaide Crows Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 07:13 pm · Last updated: 21 May 2026, 10:48 pm_

Hawthorn 75–66 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 11 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows did plenty right on the stat sheet and still walked away with nothing to show for it. They out-disposed Hawthorn 388 to 334, were more efficient going by hand and foot at 68.0% to 66.8%, and pushed the ball inside 50 a full seven more times, 57 to 50. They even out-marked Hawthorn 69 to 60 and pulled down more intercepts, 77 to 74. By most of the ledgers coaches actually care about, Adelaide had the better night.

None of it mattered where it counted. Hawthorn won 75-66, and the game turned on two numbers Adelaide couldn't do anything about: hit-outs and clearances. Hawthorn's ruck work was overwhelming, 55 hit-outs to 29, and that dominance fed straight into the clearance count, 47 to 33 in Hawthorn's favour. Adelaide could win the ball back plenty, but Hawthorn was winning it first, out of the middle, again and again. Tackle numbers were close, 81 to 78 in Adelaide's favour, and contested possessions were tight too, 141 to 134. None of it offset losing the ruck battle by 26.

The scoreboard tells the arc plainly enough. Adelaide were up 26-14 at quarter time, doing exactly what their disposal and inside-50 numbers suggest, camping in Hawthorn's forward half and racking up the footy. Then Hawthorn flipped it. By half time it was 47-34 Hawthorn's way, a second-quarter surge that lines up with that clearance and ruck edge starting to bite. The margin stretched to 20 points by the last change, 63-43. Adelaide finished the last quarter more evenly, closing 75-66, but the deficit built across the middle two terms was too much to chase down.

Pre-match, the positional ratings hinted at exactly this kind of split contest. Adelaide's defence rated stronger, 1151 to 1094, and Hawthorn's ruck was rated marginally behind too, 1084 to 1089, which makes the actual hit-out gap all the more striking against expectations. Hawthorn's forward line was rated well clear, 1058 to 974, and it delivered when the ball got there, helped by a midfield that only needed a narrow edge on paper, 1082 to 1068, to turn into a clearance rout on the day.

Form coming in painted Adelaide as the more convincing side. Three wins from five, an average margin of plus-9 compared to Hawthorn's plus-0.8, and a form line reading LWWWL against Hawthorn's WLLLW. That recent edge showed up in general play, in all those extra disposals and marks. It just didn't show up where the scoreboard actually moves, and Hawthorn's WLLLW run included the sort of contested midfield performance that flipped this one.

Alphr's model had Hawthorn a modest 56% favourite, tipping a 2.3-point win off combined ratings of 1654 to 1625. The final margin of 9 points was well within reason for that kind of lean, even if the model undercooked it slightly. The predicted total of 178 combined points was way off though, the sides combined for just 141, some 37 points under. Adelaide also covered the 13.5-point line, and the call on the 1-39 margin band landed. Add it up and the model went 3 from 4 on this one, a solid but not perfect read on a game where the ruck and clearance numbers, not the general disposal count, decided it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 14 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 75 |
| Adelaide Crows | 26 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 66 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 334 | Disposals | **388** |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **141** |
| **47** | Clearances | 33 |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **57** |
| 60 | Marks | **69** |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| 78 | Tackles | **81** |
| **55** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| 74 | Intercepts | **77** |
| 66.8% | Disposal eff. | **68.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. The game's 141 points came in 37 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 13.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.45 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 55.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 2 · Predicted total: 178

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hawthorn are the call at 56%, but Adelaide Crows stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 29 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1625. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Hawthorn.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Hawthorn by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 178. Lean Hawthorn, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 86.8pts | Avg Score | 89.6pts |
| 86.0pts | Avg Conceded | 80.6pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 86.8 |
| Adelaide Crows | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 89.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 117 · 95 | 86 · 86 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 66.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 37 | 43 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.1/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 5 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.1/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.2% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.14) +2% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.47) -2% · Midfielders 2.26/g (lg 2.48) -9%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.54/g (lg 2.48) +2% · Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.47) -8% · Key Forwards 3.49/g (lg 3.81) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at UTAS Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 26 in 10g | 26/10g (2·4·1·3·1·5·2·2·3·3) | 5/4g | 2/1g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.88 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 54' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (1·0·1·2·3·3·1·2·1·2) | 12/6g | 1/1g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·0·1·3·0·2·1·1·0·2) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 68% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 8/8g | 1/1g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·3·0·1) | 7/7g | 1/1g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 7 in 5g | 13/10g (0·3·2·0·1·2·1·2·2·0) | 11/9g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | no games | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 6' 24' 71' 92' |
| – | Bodie Ryan | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Nairn | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (1·2·1·1·4·1·0·2·2·3) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 14 in 9g | 17/10g (3·3·2·1·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 16/7g | 0/0g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·0·0·0·3·2·1·3·1·2) | 8/13g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·2·1·1·1) | 11/7g | 0/0g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 8 in 7g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·2·1·1) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 6 in 4g | 12/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·2·2·0·2) | 13/10g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (0·0·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 25.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 11 ✓ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 18 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 20.5 | $2.00 | 51% | 24 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.93 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 10 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 22 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.95 | 44% | 11 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 28 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 86% | 17 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 74% | 17 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 10 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele | 15.5 | $1.85 | 46% | 16 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hawthorn 1654 · Adelaide Crows 1625 · ELO difference: 29 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1082 (best 1238) | 1068 (best 1313) | Hawthorn +14 |
| Forwards | 1058 (best 1480) | 974 (best 1396) | Hawthorn +84 |
| Defence | 1094 (best 1402) | 1151 (best 1538) | Adelaide Crows +56 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1256) | 1089 (best 1172) | Adelaide Crows +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Hawthorn |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 178 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-21 12:48 UTC (latest tip update)