# GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 166 – 88 Brisbane Lions

_GWS GIANTS run riot over Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 59 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 39% / Brisbane Lions 61% · ENGIE Stadium · Sun, 24 May, 12:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (4' ×5 1st), Jake Riccardi (6' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (9' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (26'), Callum Brown (29' ×2), Aaron Cadman (56' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Brent Daniels (71' ×2), Phoenix Gothard (73'), Finn Callaghan (89') · Brisbane Lions: Cam Rayner (7' ×3), Will McLachlan (13'), Charlie Cameron (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (62' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (67' Tipped ⚡), Conor McKenna (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 61% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.5 predicted → 78 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 10:29 am_

GWS GIANTS 166–88 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 11 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS led from the first bounce and never had to look over their shoulder for long. Up 38-32 at quarter time, the margin held at a manageable six points by half time, 59-53. Brisbane Lions were still in the contest at that stage, still landing punches. Then the third quarter happened, and it wasn't a contest anymore.

GWS GIANTS piled on 86 points to Brisbane's 3 in that middle term, turning a six-point half time lead into an 89-point buffer by the last change, 145-56. Brisbane Lions found some pride in the final quarter, outscoring the home side 32-21, but by then the job was done. Final score: GWS GIANTS 166, Brisbane Lions 88. A 78-point win built almost entirely in one twenty-minute burst.

The disposal count tells you how that burst happened. GWS GIANTS finished with 430 disposals to 381, and they used the ball better too, 70.7% efficiency to Brisbane's 67.5%. Add in 75 inside 50s to 49 and the picture is simple: more footy, more often, going forward more often. Brisbane Lions couldn't get their hands on it enough to stay level.

Brisbane Lions did win some individual battles. They dominated hit-outs 47 to 31, no surprise given the ruck rating actually favoured GWS GIANTS coming in (1140 to 1076), which makes that number worth a second look. They also won the marking count comfortably, 88 to 67. But none of it mattered without the ball in dispute, and GWS GIANTS won that fight too, 168 contested possessions to 155, with 45 clearances to 43.

Where the game was really decided was pressure. GWS GIANTS laid 87 tackles to Brisbane's 50, a gulf that explains why the visitors could win the hit-out count and the marking count and still get buried on the scoreboard. Winning the ball in the air is one thing. Getting it out of the contest against that much tackling pressure is another. GWS GIANTS also read the ball better in defence, with 79 intercepts to 70.

Brisbane Lions came into this on the back of three wins from five and an average margin of plus 16.8, the sort of form that should travel. GWS GIANTS, by contrast, had won only two of their last five and were conceding more than they scored on average. On paper this favoured Brisbane Lions, and the model agreed, tipping them by 1.5 points with a combined total of 190. None of it landed. GWS GIANTS won by 78, and the two sides put up 254 points between them, 64 more than predicted.

Alphr's model went 2 from 4 on this one. It called the total right, the over at 188.5 always looked safe once the third quarter got going, but it badly missed the head-to-head and the margin, backing Brisbane Lions at 61% and predicting a contest that never showed up. GWS GIANTS covered the line by a distance. Form guides are useful right up until a team decides to score 86 points in one quarter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 38 | 21 | 86 | 21 | 166 |
| Brisbane Lions | 32 | 21 | 3 | 32 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **430** | Disposals | 381 |
| **168** | Contested poss. | 155 |
| **45** | Clearances | 43 |
| **75** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| 67 | Marks | **88** |
| **9** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **87** | Tackles | 50 |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| **79** | Intercepts | 70 |
| **70.7%** | Disposal eff. | 67.5% |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.5 but the actual margin was 78 points. The game's 254 points came in 64 points higher than the predicted 190. GWS GIANTS led 59–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 78. The model went 2/4 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 11.5-point line. The over 188.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.53 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 188.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 2 · Predicted total: 190

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Brisbane Lions are the call at 61%, but GWS GIANTS stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 271 ELO points clear, 1687 to 1416. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for GWS GIANTS.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 1.5, with the two sides combining for about 190. Lean Brisbane Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 81.6pts | Avg Score | 109.6pts |
| 93.0pts | Avg Conceded | 92.8pts |
| -11.4pts | Avg Margin | 16.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 81.6 |
| Brisbane Lions | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L | 109.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | Brisbane Lions | 96 – 107 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | QE | GWS GIANTS | 100 – 105 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 64 – 82 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R7 | GWS GIANTS | 113 – 59 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R6 | GWS GIANTS | 87 – 108 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 98 · 90 | 114 · 89 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 6/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.2/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 10.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65% | 66.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 34 | 29 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.3/g | 25.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 12 | 8 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.7/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 80.5% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.31/g (lg 4.46) -3% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.5) -4% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.48) -7%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.13) +8% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.5) +6% · Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.81) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (5·0·1·2·1·0·3·1·3·2) | 24/11g | 23/15g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 67' 88' 98' 87' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 12 in 8g | 13/10g (0·1·3·1·0·1·2·3·2·0) | 4/5g | 37/31g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 45' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 80% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 10 in 5g | 18/10g (2·4·2·0·0·4·3·2·1·0) | 11/5g | 27/21g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' 70' 78' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·3·0) | 26/12g | 150/90g | 74% | — | 🏉 4' 76' 86' 94' 95' |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 8 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2·2) | 6/8g | 31/36g | 54% | — | 🏉 71' 91' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 8 in 6g | 16/10g (2·0·3·3·2·0·1·1·2·2) | 1/1g | 12/6g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 58' 82' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 6g | 11/10g (1·2·1·2·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 16/25g | 56% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/16g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/26g | 20% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 36/80g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 2/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (0·5·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 31/21g | 42% | — | 🏉 29' 83' |
| – | Harrison Oliver | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 13/15g | 61/66g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/39g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/11g | 22% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (4·2·2·0·1·3·4·2·2·3) | 25/16g | 8/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 50' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 23 in 9g | 24/10g (1·3·2·3·0·3·2·4·4·2) | 6/3g | 0/1g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 18 in 10g | 18/10g (2·1·2·4·1·1·1·4·2·0) | 3/4g | 2/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 78' 92' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 15 in 9g | 18/10g (3·1·2·2·2·0·3·4·0·1) | 9/12g | 8/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·1·2·0·1·2·1·2·0·1) | 12/12g | 3/4g | 74% | — | 🏉 7' 15' 69' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 26% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 5 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·4·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 7/13g | 1/5g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 11/17g | 3/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 3/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 8g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | no games | 3/6g (2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 13' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.95 | 76% | 28 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 30.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 37 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 31 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 19.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 74% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 17.5 | $1.83 | 41% | 21 ✗ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 24 ✗ |
| Joe Fonti | 15.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 15.5 | $1.86 | 48% | 21 ✗ |
| Jayden Laverde | 14.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 17 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 29.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 32 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 27.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 23 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 20.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 24 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Keidean Coleman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Bruce Reville ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.86 | 65% | 11 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner | 14.5 | $1.84 | 53% | 17 ✗ |
| Harris Andrews | 14.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — GWS GIANTS 1416 · Brisbane Lions 1687 · ELO difference: 271 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | GWS GIANTS | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1100 (best 1474) | 1125 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +25 |
| Forwards | 1008 (best 1361) | 1030 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +22 |
| Defence | 1115 (best 1600) | 1113 (best 1463) | GWS GIANTS +2 |
| Ruck | 1140 (best 1370) | 1076 (best 1323) | GWS GIANTS +64 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | GWS GIANTS |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 190 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 00:29 UTC (latest tip update)