Win Probability
AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.5 but the actual margin was 78 points. The game's 254 points came in 64 points higher than the predicted 190. GWS GIANTS led 59–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 78. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The over 188.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
39%
Brisbane Lions
61%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 271-point ELO rating advantage (1687 vs 1416). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 1.5 points with a combined total of 190.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.53
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.0%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.0%
Margin Band
Brisbane Lions 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 188.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | R6L R7W R8L R9W R10L older → newer | 81.6 |
Brisbane Lions | R6L R7W R8W R9W R10L | 109.6 |
Avg Conceded
93.0
GWS GIANTS
92.8
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-11.4
GWS GIANTS
16.8
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
350.0
GWS GIANTS
350.0
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 190 · Line: -1.5
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