Win Probability
AI Game Review
Geelong Cats defied the model's 61% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 27 points. Total score prediction of 193 was close to the actual 187, within 6 points. Geelong Cats led 58–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 27. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
39%
Sydney Swans
61%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Geelong Cats.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.47
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.2%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +11.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.0%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats Draw @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 189.5 @1.88
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | R6W R7L R8W R9W R10W older → newer | 114.0 |
Sydney Swans | R6W R7W R8W R9W R10W | 110.0 |
Avg Conceded
76.2
Geelong Cats
82.4
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
37.8
Geelong Cats
27.6
Sydney Swans
Disposals
350.0
Geelong Cats
350.0
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1809 vs 1800), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.68).
The model sides with ELO, Sydney Swans predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +0.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.