# Fremantle v St Kilda — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri, 22 May, 08:30 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 11

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.78 (edge +30.4%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +23.5 @ $1.89 (edge +34.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 11 · Predicted total: 166

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 101.2pts | Avg Score | 104.4pts |
| 73.2pts | Avg Conceded | 75.2pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Margin | 29.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 101.2 |
| St Kilda | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 104.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-fremantle-v-st-kilda
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 08:24 UTC