# Fremantle v St Kilda — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 104 – 74 St Kilda

_Fremantle fight back to topple St Kilda._

Half time: 44 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 43% / St Kilda 57% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 22 May, 08:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Jye Amiss (15' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (26' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (58' Tipped ⚡), Neil Erasmus (67'), Isaiah Dudley (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (70'), Shai Bolton (84' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Max Hall (9' 1st), Liam Henry (24' ×2), Mason Wood (28' ×2), Mattaes Phillipou (34' ×2), Bradley Hill (64' ×2), Darcy Wilson (63' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 57% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 22 May 2026, 11:26 pm_

Fremantle 104–74 St Kilda in AFL Round 11 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle beat St Kilda by 30 points, 104 to 74, at Optus Stadium. Written down like that it looks like a canter. It wasn't.

At three-quarter time Fremantle led by six, 65 to 59. Rewind further and St Kilda were actually up at the first two changes, leading 25 to 19 at quarter time and still in front 45 to 44 at the half. So for three quarters this was a genuine arm wrestle, decided by a handful of points either way. Then Fremantle put on 39 points to St Kilda's 15 in the last quarter and turned a squeak into a rout.

That final term explains most of the gap between what the model expected and what actually happened. Alphr's pre-match read had St Kilda winning by 11.1, with a 57% probability tag attached, on a combined total of 166. The final total landed close to that mark, 178, but the margin ran the other way entirely, and by a wide one. All four picks missed on this game, which is as clean a miss as the model's had.

The stat sheet tells you where the difference actually came from. Fremantle piled up 386 disposals to 351 and moved it better, hitting targets at 75.1% against St Kilda's 71.8%. They went inside 50 sixty times to 45, and when they got there they were efficient with it, 13 marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 10. Contested possession also went their way, 144 to 131. That's a side dominating the exits and the entries, even while St Kilda were doing perfectly fine work in other areas.

Because St Kilda didn't get bullied everywhere. They won the clearance count outright, 41 to 34, which should have been the platform for a much tighter contest, and they out-tackled Fremantle too, 55 to 52. That's a midfield that held its own at the coalface. The problem was what happened after the ball came out. Fremantle's intercept count, 70 to 63, and their extra marks, 100 to 90, suggest they were the side turning that clearance work back against St Kilda rather than the other way around.

The positional ratings picked Fremantle as the stronger unit in all four departments coming in, midfield, forwards, defence and ruck, and the defence gap in particular, 1120 to 1084, lines up neatly with a St Kilda scoreboard that stalled hard after three-quarter time. Recent form told a different story though. St Kilda arrived on the back of a healthier scoring average, 104.4 to 101.2, and had beaten better opposition of late by their own numbers, even with a scratchier LWWLW form line against Fremantle's clean WWWWW. On paper it looked like the sort of contest that could go either way for three quarters. It did, right up until it very much didn't.

For St Kilda, there's plenty to salvage from the clearance and tackle counts, proof the midfield group can hold a contest against a side rated above them in that zone. What they couldn't do was turn any of that pressure into scoreboard pressure once Fremantle found some rhythm going forward. A six-point game at three-quarter time becoming a 30-point defeat by the siren is the sort

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 19 | 25 | 21 | 39 | 104 |
| St Kilda | 25 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **386** | Disposals | 351 |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| 34 | Clearances | **41** |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **100** | Marks | 90 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 52 | Tackles | **55** |
| **33** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **70** | Intercepts | 63 |
| **75.1%** | Disposal eff. | 71.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 57% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 30 points. Fremantle trailed 44–45 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–74. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.78 (edge +30.4%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +23.5 @ $1.89 (edge +34.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 11 · Predicted total: 166

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Kilda are the call at 57%, but Fremantle stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Fremantle sit 265 ELO points clear, 1747 to 1482, so the model is backing St Kilda against the ratings gap. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for St Kilda.

On paper Fremantle shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with St Kilda, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has St Kilda by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 166. Lean St Kilda, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 101.2pts | Avg Score | 104.4pts |
| 73.2pts | Avg Conceded | 75.2pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Margin | 29.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 101.2 |
| St Kilda | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 104.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 91 · 69 | 92 · 85 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 16.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.4% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 23 | 31 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 168/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.1/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 12 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.4% | 78.6% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.68/g (lg 2.48) +8% · Key Forwards 3.8/g (lg 3.81) +0% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.46) -6%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.46) -7% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.48) -12% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.81) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (2·4·4·2·0·1·3·3·2·2) | 6/5g | 79/48g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 66' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 22 in 10g | 22/10g (1·0·2·4·2·5·3·0·3·2) | 4/3g | 71/44g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 36' 40' 78' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (3·3·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/2g | 17/15g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 73' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 13 in 9g | 16/10g (3·0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1·5) | 1/2g | 28/21g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 43' 87' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·2·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·2) | 21/12g | 39/28g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 42/47g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·2·1·3·1) | 4/6g | 70/60g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 17/19g | 64% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 3/6g | 40/59g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 33/94g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/35g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/29g | 14% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/43g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 9/58g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 10/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 21/72g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/95g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/11g | 16% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (2·0·0·3·1·1·2·2·0·2) | 8/5g | 1/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·4·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 9g | 14/10g (5·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·4·1) | 1/3g | 2/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 34' 47' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 12/9g | 60% | — | 🏉 28' 52' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 3/11g | 2/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 1/6g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 3/24g | 32% | — | 🏉 64' 90' |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1·0) | 2/2g | 6/22g | 28% | — | 🏉 24' 86' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 3/4g | 3/4g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Banfield | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 4/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 3/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 2/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 75% | 18 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 25 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.94 | 76% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 24 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 20 ✗ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.93 | 73% | 25 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 18.5 | $1.93 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 17.5 | $1.92 | 46% | 22 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Judd McVee | 16.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 16 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 76% | 25 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 86% | 10 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 18 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 86% | 25 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.76 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 14 ✓ |
| Ryan Byrnes ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1747 · St Kilda 1482 · ELO difference: 265 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1108 (best 1515) | 1091 (best 1253) | Fremantle +16 |
| Forwards | 1017 (best 1397) | 1008 (best 1493) | Fremantle +10 |
| Defence | 1120 (best 1377) | 1084 (best 1418) | Fremantle +36 |
| Ruck | 1165 (best 1341) | 1138 (best 1457) | Fremantle +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 166 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-22 13:26 UTC (latest tip update)