Win Probability
AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 57% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 30 points. Fremantle trailed 44–45 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–74. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
43%
St Kilda
57%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 43%. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate, but St Kilda counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 265-point ELO rating advantage (1747 vs 1482). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 11.1 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @3.78
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.4%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +23.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+34.6%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | R6W R7W R8W R9W R10W older → newer | 101.2 |
St Kilda | R6L R7W R8W R9L R10W | 104.4 |
Avg Conceded
73.2
Fremantle
75.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
28.0
Fremantle
29.2
St Kilda
Disposals
350.0
Fremantle
350.0
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
St Kilda predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: -11.1
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