Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Collingwood by 9.4 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 170 was close to the actual 174, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
58%
West Coast Eagles
42%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Collingwood carry a 363-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1177). Recent form favours Collingwood with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 9.4 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.05
Winner ✓
Edge
-36.8%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+38.1%
Margin Band
Collingwood 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | R6W R7W R8L R9L R10L older → newer | 92.2 |
West Coast Eagles | R6L R7L R8L R9L R10W | 65.2 |
Avg Conceded
87.8
Collingwood
101.8
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
4.4
Collingwood
-36.6
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
350.0
Collingwood
350.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Collingwood predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +9.4
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