# Collingwood v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 92 – 82 West Coast Eagles

_Collingwood hold off a gallant West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 45 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 58% / West Coast Eagles 42% · MCG · Sat, 23 May, 04:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Patrick Lipinski (8' 1st), Roan Steele (24' ×2), Lachie Schultz (36' Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (45' ×3), Jamie Elliott (50' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Edward Allan (54'), Daniel McStay (79' Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Brady Hough (13'), Bailey Williams (28'), Harvey Johnston (43'), Jake Waterman (47' Tipped ⚡), Malakai Champion (63' ×2), Milan Murdock (73'), Elliot Yeo (86' ×2), Jobe Shanahan (78' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 58% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 May 2026, 10:16 am · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 11:35 am_

Collingwood 92–82 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 11 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

77 tackles to 44. That's the number that decided it, and it's how Collingwood got out of the MCG with a 92-82 win over West Coast Eagles.

West Coast actually did plenty right. More disposals, 366 to 357. More marks, 97 to 77. A disposal efficiency of 77.9% that put Collingwood's 72.3% to shame. On raw ball use, the Eagles were the better side. None of it mattered, because Collingwood won the fight for the ball first, 138 contested possessions to 119, and then made West Coast pay for every loose one with 64 intercepts to 50.

The scoreboard tells the same story in stages. Collingwood actually trailed at quarter time, 18-20, with West Coast's clean ball use up front. By half time the tackling and turnovers had flipped it, Collingwood out to 45-35. The margin held at three-quarter time, 72-61, and Collingwood carried it home from there, adding 20 to West Coast's 21 in the last term to close it out 92-82.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had Collingwood favourites at 58% and picked the margin at 9.4 points. Final margin: 10. Total score prediction was 170, the game finished on 174. Four from four on the picks that mattered, and the tackle count is the plain-English version of why the model liked Collingwood in the first place.

It lines up with the positional read too. West Coast came in rated higher in midfield, 1081 to 1043, and in defence, 1151 to 1102. But Collingwood held a real edge in the ruck, 1170 to 1084, and that platform fed the contested ball numbers all day. Hit-outs were close, 30 to 32, but Collingwood turned first use into second and third efforts at the contest that West Coast simply didn't match.

Form lines backed it too. Collingwood arrived averaging 92.2 points a game across their last five, conceding 87.8, good for a modest positive margin of 4.4. West Coast's numbers were the opposite kind of story: 65.2 scored, 101.8 conceded, an average margin of minus 36.6. A LLLLW form line against Collingwood's WWLLL. West Coast's underlying disposal and inside-50 numbers matched Collingwood's across the last five, 350 to 350 and 50 to 50, which says the talent gap isn't the issue. It's what happens under pressure that's been the problem, and it showed up again here.

Inside 50s went marginally West Coast's way, 52 to 50, and marks inside 50 were close, 9 to 10. So the Eagles had their looks. They just couldn't hang onto the ball when Collingwood came at them, and 77 tackles will do that to a side.

Collingwood built the lead through the middle two quarters and didn't let it go. West Coast had the polish. Collingwood had the grip.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 18 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 92 |
| West Coast Eagles | 20 | 15 | 26 | 21 | 82 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 357 | Disposals | **366** |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| 38 | Clearances | 38 |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **52** |
| 77 | Marks | **97** |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **77** | Tackles | 44 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **32** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 50 |
| 72.3% | Disposal eff. | **77.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Collingwood by 9.4 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 170 was close to the actual 174, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.05 (edge -36.8%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 9 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Collingwood are the call at 58%, but West Coast Eagles stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 363 ELO points clear, 1539 to 1177. Form leans Collingwood's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for West Coast Eagles.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Collingwood by 9.4, with the two sides combining for about 170. Lean Collingwood, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 92.2pts | Avg Score | 65.2pts |
| 87.8pts | Avg Conceded | 101.8pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Margin | -36.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 92.2 |
| West Coast Eagles | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W | 65.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 86 · 89 | 54 · 108 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 74/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 6.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 70.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 22 | 34 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 24.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 68.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 6 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.9/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 79.8% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.5) +46% · Midfielders 3.48/g (lg 2.5) +39% · Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.14) +24%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10% · Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.14) +0% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.45) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (1·0·2·4·1·2·2·1·3·1) | 5/9g | 52/45g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·0·3·2·3·0·1) | 12/12g | 229/140g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 68' 70' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 11/8g | 43/37g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·3·2·0·0) | 20/13g | 129/119g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 5/4g | 37/65g | 58% | — | 🏉 45' 67' 83' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/9g | 40% | — | 🏉 24' 63' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 46/62g | 36% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/7g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 53/160g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 4/19g | 83/189g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 31/64g | 32% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/20g | 107/187g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 16/145g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Charlie West | KF | 1 in 1g | 2/2g (1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 8/36g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 39/76g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 31/93g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/34g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 39/115g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 10% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/82g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 56/167g | 8% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 21 in 10g | 21/10g (3·1·4·1·1·1·1·3·3·3) | 3/7g | 9/11g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (1·2·0·0·4·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 91' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·2) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/12g | 8/19g | 44% | — | 🏉 86' 74' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 32/68g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/3g | 4/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 63' 89' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 21/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 6% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 31.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 34 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 78% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 25.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 24.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 23.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 25 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 18.5 | $1.91 | 45% | 12 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 75% | 28 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Jeremy Howe ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Ned Long | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 10 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 24.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 23.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 21.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 19.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 20 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 19.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 17 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 14 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 18.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Hamish Davis | 16.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 23 ✗ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 13.5 | $1.82 | 43% | 19 ✗ |
| Bailey J. Williams | 13.5 | $1.76 | 65% | 20 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Collingwood 1539 · West Coast Eagles 1177 · ELO difference: 363 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1043 (best 1258) | 1081 (best 1297) | West Coast Eagles +37 |
| Forwards | 1005 (best 1480) | 977 (best 1297) | Collingwood +28 |
| Defence | 1102 (best 1301) | 1151 (best 1414) | West Coast Eagles +49 |
| Ruck | 1170 (best 1328) | 1084 (best 1141) | Collingwood +86 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 01:35 UTC (latest tip update)