Win Probability
AI Game Review
West Coast Eagles defied the model's 67% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 159 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 178.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
33%
GWS GIANTS
67%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. GWS GIANTS carry a 368-point ELO rating advantage (1481 vs 1112). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 3.9 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.19
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.7%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +30.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.4%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | R5L R6L R7L R8L R9L older → newer | 62.8 |
GWS GIANTS | R5W R6L R7W R8L R9W | 93.6 |
Avg Conceded
112.0
West Coast Eagles
90.4
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-49.2
West Coast Eagles
3.2
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
350.0
West Coast Eagles
350.0
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
West Coast Eagles
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: +3.9
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