# West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 88 – 71 GWS GIANTS

_West Coast Eagles swoop on GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 46 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 33% / GWS GIANTS 67% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 17 May, 06:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jack Hutchinson (3' ×2 1st), Jobe Shanahan (39' Tipped ⚡), Jake Waterman (43' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harley Reid (53'), Milan Murdock (55' ×2), Harvey Johnston (66'), Bailey Williams (92' ×2) · GWS GIANTS: Toby Bedford (4'), Harrison Oliver (47'), Jake Stringer (57' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (65' Tipped ⚡), Brent Daniels (68'), Harvey Thomas (72'), Joe Fonti (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 67% | Lost |
| West Coast Eagles | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 09:23 pm_

West Coast Eagles 88–71 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 10 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Optus Stadium had West Coast up 46 to 32, a scoreline that looked like business as usual against GWS GIANTS' shaky recent form. The Eagles had turned a level opening term into a 14-point buffer by the main break. Then GIANTS did something the ladder position didn't suggest they could.

The third quarter belonged entirely to GWS. They outscored West Coast 32 to 14 in that term alone, flipping a 14-point deficit into a four-point lead, 64-60 at three-quarter time. For a side that had lost three of its last five, it was the sort of period that usually settles a contest.

It didn't. West Coast answered with 28 points to 7 in the final quarter, turning that four-point deficit into a 17-point win, 88 to 71. Whatever GWS did in the third, the Eagles had an answer for in the fourth, and a big one.

The hit-out count tells you where a chunk of that final-term shift came from. West Coast's ruck division won the battle 50 to 35, a wide enough margin to feed clean ball to a side that made the most of it. Disposal efficiency backs that up: West Coast used it at 74.7 per cent against GWS's 65.3, the difference between winning the footy and doing something with it.

Because GWS actually won the raw numbers. They had 355 disposals to 312, took the contested possession count 142 to 132, and won clearances 39 to 37. On paper that's the side controlling the ball. On the scoreboard it's the side that lost by 17. Efficiency and structure around goal mattered more than volume, and West Coast's 88 marks to 57 says plenty about who was actually finding targets in space.

The positional ratings coming in had GWS stronger everywhere that mattered on the stat sheet, midfield 1100 to 1081, ruck 1140 to 1084, forwards 1008 to 977. West Coast's only rated edge was defence, 1151 to 1115. On the day it was the Eagles' ruck that flipped the expected order, and that defensive rating held up when it counted most, in a final term where West Coast conceded just 7 points.

Form lines made this result harder to see coming. GWS arrived with three wins from five and an average score of 93.6, West Coast with none and 62.8.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 8 | 38 | 14 | 28 | 88 |
| GWS GIANTS | 18 | 14 | 32 | 7 | 71 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Disposals | **355** |
| 132 | Contested poss. | **142** |
| 37 | Clearances | **39** |
| **47** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **88** | Marks | 57 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| **79** | Tackles | 78 |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 59 | Intercepts | **65** |
| **74.7%** | Disposal eff. | 65.3% |

**Model Report Card**

West Coast Eagles defied the model's 67% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 159 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 178. The model went 3/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 30.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 178.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.19 (edge -16.7%) — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +30.5 @ $1.90 (edge +34.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 178

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on GWS GIANTS here: 67% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 368 ELO points clear, 1481 to 1112. Form leans GWS GIANTS's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for West Coast Eagles.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has West Coast Eagles by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 178. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back GWS GIANTS to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 62.8pts | Avg Score | 93.6pts |
| 112.0pts | Avg Conceded | 90.4pts |
| -49.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 62.8 |
| GWS GIANTS | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W | 93.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | GWS GIANTS | 111 – 57 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2025 | R17 | West Coast Eagles | 52 – 111 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R4 | GWS GIANTS | 132 – 51 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 108 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 100 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 47 · 101 | 91 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 23.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 9.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 66.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 33 | 18 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.8/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 18 | 1 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 81.9% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.14) +9% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.81) -1%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.75/g (lg 0.5) +50% · Midfielders 3.53/g (lg 2.5) +41% · Defenders 1.4/g (lg 1.14) +23%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 18 in 9g | 21/10g (3·3·1·4·1·1·1·1·3·3) | 11/5g | 99/63g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' 75' 77' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 9 in 9g | 12/10g (3·1·2·0·0·4·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 12/9g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (2·0·0·2·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/11g | 26/61g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 7 in 9g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/3g | 17/25g | 48% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 5/9g | 10/25g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 19/44g | 32% | — | 🏉 92' 84' |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/12g | 18% | — | 🏉 3' 48' |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 7/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 24/66g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 1/66g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/44g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (1·1·2·2·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 19/21g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 4/85g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 16 in 9g | 16/10g (0·5·0·1·2·1·0·3·1·3) | 30/17g | 16/11g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' 74' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 12 in 7g | 14/10g (1·0·1·3·1·0·1·2·3·2) | 6/7g | 8/6g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 12 in 9g | 12/9g (1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 89% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 10 in 4g | 21/10g (3·2·4·2·0·0·4·3·2·1) | 6/3g | 5/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·3) | 25/14g | 11/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 6 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2) | 5/6g | 6/8g | 52% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 6 in 5g | 14/10g (0·2·0·3·3·2·0·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·2·1·2·2·1·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 3/3g | 54% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/12g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 11/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Oliver | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | James Leake | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 80% | 13 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 23.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 34 ✗ |
| Tim Kelly | 23.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 19 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 22 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 18.5 | $2.05 | 45% | 16 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 31.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 38 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 20.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 13 ✓ |
| Ryan Angwin | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1112 · GWS GIANTS 1481 · ELO difference: 368 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1081 (best 1297) | 1100 (best 1474) | GWS GIANTS +20 |
| Forwards | 977 (best 1297) | 1008 (best 1361) | GWS GIANTS +31 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1414) | 1115 (best 1600) | West Coast Eagles +36 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1141) | 1140 (best 1370) | GWS GIANTS +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 178 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 11:23 UTC (latest tip update)