Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 156 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 179. Sydney Swans trailed 24–45 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 81–75. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
59%
Collingwood
41%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 253-point ELO rating advantage (1801 vs 1548). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 1.8 points with a combined total of 179.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.14
Winner ✓
Edge
-29.1%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +35.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+33.7%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | R5W R6W R7W R8W R9W older → newer | 113.8 |
Collingwood | R5L R6W R7W R8L R9L | 85.0 |
Avg Conceded
81.0
Sydney Swans
80.6
Collingwood
Avg Margin
32.8
Sydney Swans
4.4
Collingwood
Disposals
350.0
Sydney Swans
350.0
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 179 · Line: +1.8
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