# Sydney Swans v Collingwood — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 81 – 75 Collingwood

_Sydney Swans fight back to ruffle the feathers of Collingwood from 21 down._

Half time: 24 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 59% / Collingwood 41% · SCG · Fri, 15 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Brodie Grundy (26'), Charlie Curnow (50' Tipped ⚡), Jai Serong (60'), Nick Blakey (66'), Tom Papley (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (85' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Justin McInerney (87'), Chad Warner (93'), Isaac Heeney (96' Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Charlie West (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (11'), Angus Anderson (14'), Nick Daicos (19' ×2), Ned Long (37'), Daniel McStay (80' Tipped ⚡), Will Hayes (82'), Roan Steele (77'), Jamie Elliott (93' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 59% | Won |
| Collingwood | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 15 May 2026, 10:59 pm_

Sydney Swans 81–75 Collingwood in AFL Round 10 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood spent the first half doing most of the scoreboard damage, and for a good stretch of Saturday's clash at the SCG, it looked like the Swans were chasing a game that was getting away from them. By quarter time Collingwood led 32 to 10. By half time that margin had barely moved, 45 to 24. Sydney Swans needed something to change, fast.

It did, in the third quarter. Sydney Swans outscored Collingwood 42 to 15 in that period alone, turning a 21 point deficit into a 6 point lead. By three-quarter time it was Sydney Swans 66, Collingwood 60, a complete reversal of the shape of the match. Whatever had been going wrong for the home side in the first half, it stopped happening after the break.

The last quarter was tighter, both sides adding 15 points, and the margin that had opened in the third term held all the way to the final siren. Sydney Swans 81, Collingwood 75. Six points, the same gap that existed at the last change, carried through to the end.

The underlying numbers back up the shift in territory. Sydney Swans finished with 401 disposals to 373, won contested possession 160 to 145, and had 41 clearances to Collingwood's 38. They also went inside 50 a full 15 times more, 71 to 56, and that extra volume of entries showed up on the marking count too: 89 marks to 66, though the more clinical mark inside 50 figure was dead even at 8 apiece. Disposal efficiency was close, 69.3 per cent to 68.6, so it wasn't a case of one side being sloppy. Sydney Swans simply had the ball more and used the extra territory to push the margin their way in that third term.

One number stands out above the rest: hit-outs, 52 to 10 in Sydney Swans's favour.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 10 | 14 | 42 | 15 | 81 |
| Collingwood | 32 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **401** | Disposals | 373 |
| **160** | Contested poss. | 145 |
| **41** | Clearances | 38 |
| **71** | Inside 50s | 56 |
| **89** | Marks | 66 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 56 | Tackles | **74** |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 10 |
| 80 | Intercepts | **81** |
| **69.3%** | Disposal eff. | 68.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 156 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 179. Sydney Swans trailed 24–45 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 81–75. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.14 (edge -29.1%) — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +35.5 @ $1.90 (edge +33.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 2 · Predicted total: 179

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sydney Swans are the call at 59%, but Collingwood stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 253 ELO points clear, 1801 to 1548. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Collingwood.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 179. Lean Sydney Swans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 113.8pts | Avg Score | 85.0pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 80.6pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 113.8 |
| Collingwood | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 85.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 96 · 59 | 79 · 84 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.1/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.6/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 70% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 53 · 28 | 25 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 160/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.7/g | 18.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 72.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 4 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.1/g | 12.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8% · Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.14) +0% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.5) +32% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.5) -5% · Forwards 3.98/g (lg 4.45) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 21 in 9g | 23/10g (2·3·5·1·2·0·2·3·4·1) | 1/3g | 57/34g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 20 in 8g | 25/10g (3·2·3·0·2·4·0·3·7·1) | 26/12g | 18/10g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 15 in 9g | 15/10g (0·1·2·3·0·1·2·0·3·3) | 7/5g | 53/38g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' 85' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 13 in 7g | 20/10g (5·1·1·2·2·4·2·0·0·3) | 12/11g | 138/105g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 96' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 13 in 8g | 13/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·7·0) | 1/3g | 13/7g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 12 in 9g | 15/10g (3·1·0·1·2·3·1·1·1·2) | 14/9g | 147/91g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 89' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·2·2·1·3·0·1) | 7/7g | 48/57g | 66% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·3·2·1·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 29/53g | 50% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 9/32g | 38% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/13g | 23/123g | 34% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 14/29g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/18g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 25/69g | 30% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Billy Cootee | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 17/91g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 24/64g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 16/39g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/85g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/53g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 18/68g | 8% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 16 in 9g | 17/10g (1·1·0·2·4·1·2·2·1·3) | 9/9g | 4/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 13 in 9g | 17/10g (4·1·2·1·1·0·3·2·3·0) | 19/13g | 4/5g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (1·0·3·0·0·1·0·3·2·0) | 6/6g | 4/5g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 16/8g | 4/2g | 72% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 7/7g | 5/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 2/3g | 56% | — | 🏉 19' 23' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (1·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 4 in 4g | 5/6g (0·1·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 3 in 4g | 11/10g (2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/14g | 6/11g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/18g | 3/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 3/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie West | KF | no games | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 39 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 26.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 25.5 | $1.84 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 25.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 31 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 34 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Riley Bice | 21.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 14 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 21 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom | 15.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 14 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.94 | 44% | 28 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 23.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 22.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 29 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 18.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 15 ✓ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 16.5 | $1.82 | 57% | 22 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sydney Swans 1801 · Collingwood 1548 · ELO difference: 253 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sydney Swans | Collingwood | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1188 (best 1471) | 1043 (best 1258) | Sydney Swans +145 |
| Forwards | 1001 (best 1600) | 1005 (best 1480) | Collingwood +3 |
| Defence | 1140 (best 1534) | 1102 (best 1301) | Sydney Swans +38 |
| Ruck | 1153 (best 1513) | 1170 (best 1328) | Collingwood +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sydney Swans |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 179 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-15 12:59 UTC (latest tip update)