Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 182 was close to the actual 182, within 0 points. St Kilda led 65–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
65%
Richmond
35%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. St Kilda carry a 342-point ELO rating advantage (1470 vs 1129). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 11.6 points with a combined total of 182.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.3%
Line / Spread
Richmond +40.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.9%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 179.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9L older → newer | 98.8 |
Richmond | R5L R6L R7L R8W R9L | 72.4 |
Avg Conceded
74.0
St Kilda
114.6
Richmond
Avg Margin
24.8
St Kilda
-42.2
Richmond
Disposals
350.0
St Kilda
350.0
Richmond
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
St Kilda predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 182 · Line: +11.6
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