# St Kilda v Richmond — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 109 – 73 Richmond

_St Kilda see off Richmond._

Half time: 65 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 65% / Richmond 35% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 17 May, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Max Hall (2' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Mattaes Phillipou (6' ×2), Anthony Caminiti (12' ×2), Cooper Sharman (15' Tipped ⚡), Tom De Koning (22' ×2), Darcy Wilson (49' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Garcia (55' ×2), Jack Higgins (70' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Banfield (80'), Rowan Marshall (73') · Richmond: Noah Roberts-Thomson (17' ×2), Tim Taranto (38'), Noah Balta (44'), Jonty Faull (56'), Liam Fawcett (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Lynch (90' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Ross (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 65% | Won |
| Richmond | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.6 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 06:08 pm_

St Kilda 109–73 Richmond in AFL Round 10 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led 65 to 39 at half time and the second half didn't so much rewrite that story as photocopy it. By three-quarter time it was 87 to 54. By the final siren it was 109 to 73. Same shape, bigger numbers, all the way through.

That's a 36-point win in the end, and the scoreboard barely wobbled once it got going. St Kilda scored 33 in the first quarter alone and never let Richmond within 20 points from that point on. There was no third-quarter fade to talk about, no late fightback. Just a team piling on more of the same.

The hit-out count tells you where it started: St Kilda 42, Richmond 19. That's a ruck division going in rated 1138 to Richmond's 1066, and it played out exactly like the numbers suggested it might. Clean taps feed clearances, and St Kilda won those 41 to 27. From there the disposal count blew out to 408 against 318, and Richmond simply didn't get their hands on it often enough to matter.

Inside 50 is where St Kilda made the meterage count. 63 entries to 36, and 15 marks inside forward 50 against Richmond's 9. That's not just getting there, that's arriving with a target standing under it. Richmond actually had the better disposal efficiency, 78.0 per cent to 75.0, which says their touch wasn't the problem. They just didn't get enough touches in space that mattered.

Where Richmond can point to something is intercepts, 54 to St Kilda's 58, close enough not to be embarrassing. But close on one column doesn't help when you're down 14 clearances and 23 hit-outs. Richmond's defence was rated stronger coming in, 1108 to 1084, and on another day that edge might have shown up. It didn't, mostly because the ball barely got there on Richmond's terms.

Form lines had this coming, to be fair. St Kilda arrived at 3 wins from their last 5, averaging 98.8 points scored and just 74 conceded. Richmond had 1 win from 5, averaging 72.4 scored and 114.6 conceded, a pattern of the same script we saw here. Richmond's last five reads LLLWL. This match slots straight back into that run.

Alphr's model had St Kilda at 65 per cent to win, which landed. The margin pick was the miss, tipped at 11.6 and the actual gap was 36, more than three times the call. The total score prediction fared better, 182 forecast against 182 delivered, dead on. Three from four, and the one that missed wasn't close.

St Kilda's ruck edge did the damage it was rated to do, and everything downstream followed. Richmond's defensive rating never got the chance to be tested properly, because the ball rarely came their way on fair terms. Wins and misses, all of it, but the story of this one was set by half time and the second half just kept typing.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 33 | 32 | 22 | 22 | 109 |
| Richmond | 12 | 27 | 15 | 19 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **408** | Disposals | 318 |
| **126** | Contested poss. | 98 |
| **41** | Clearances | 27 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 36 |
| **115** | Marks | 103 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **50** | Tackles | 40 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 19 |
| **58** | Intercepts | 54 |
| 75.0% | Disposal eff. | **78.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 182 was close to the actual 182, within 0 points. St Kilda led 65–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.10 (edge -26.3%) — model probability 64.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +40.5 @ $1.90 (edge +28.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 12 · Predicted total: 182

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 65% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 342 ELO points clear, 1470 to 1129. Form leans St Kilda's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has St Kilda by 11.6, with the two sides combining for about 182. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 98.8pts | Avg Score | 72.4pts |
| 74.0pts | Avg Conceded | 114.6pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Margin | -42.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 98.8 |
| Richmond | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L | 72.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 84 · 77 | 64 · 97 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 17.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 8.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 24 | 10 · 39 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.7/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 9 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.4% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.64/g (lg 0.5) +28% · Key Forwards 4.84/g (lg 3.81) +27% · Midfielders 3/g (lg 2.5) +20%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.71/g (lg 2.5) +8% · Key Forwards 3.76/g (lg 3.81) -1% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.45) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 16 in 7g | 21/10g (2·3·0·1·2·2·2·0·4·5) | 15/9g | 104/67g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 11 in 9g | 13/10g (2·2·0·0·3·1·1·2·2·0) | 7/6g | 56/42g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 10 in 9g | 12/10g (2·1·4·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/2g | 13/16g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 88' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 8 in 8g | 14/10g (1·5·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·4) | 3/4g | 16/24g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 15/27g | 44% | — | 🏉 6' 51' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/19g | 22/86g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 4 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 0/4g | 8/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 12/12g | 51/82g | 44% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/18g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' 68' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 13/34g | 24% | — | 🏉 22' 61' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/43g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 23/33g | 24% | — | 🏉 12' 85' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 29/42g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/16g | 40/112g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 6/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/81g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Banfield | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/51g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 28/136g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/45g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 6/43g | 14% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·0·3·0·0·1·2·2·3·1) | 3/4g | 9/6g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·2·0·3·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/2g | 3/5g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 7 in 5g | 18/10g (3·1·1·3·3·2·0·1·1·3) | 28/14g | 62/27g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 90' 66' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 5 in 3g | 6/4g (1·2·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 79' |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 3/8g | 8/16g | 34% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 10/18g | 36% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/14g | 12% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 4/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 5/34g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 9/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Roberts-Thomson | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' 23' |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.85 | 67% | 29 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 28 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 25 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 22.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 31 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 22.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 26 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.79 | 78% | 17 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 25 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 22.5 | $1.92 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Patrick Retschko | 18.5 | $1.90 | 33% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 21 ✗ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 16.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Trainor ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1470 · Richmond 1129 · ELO difference: 342 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1091 (best 1253) | 1099 (best 1475) | Richmond +8 |
| Forwards | 1008 (best 1493) | 986 (best 1491) | St Kilda +22 |
| Defence | 1084 (best 1418) | 1108 (best 1589) | Richmond +25 |
| Ruck | 1138 (best 1457) | 1066 (best 1392) | St Kilda +71 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Richmond |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 182 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 08:08 UTC (latest tip update)