# Melbourne v Hawthorn — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 120 – 81 Hawthorn

_Melbourne see off Hawthorn._

Half time: 42 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 44% / Hawthorn 56% · MCG · Sat, 16 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Harry Petty (4' ×3 1st), Jacob van Rooyen (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Langford (58' ×2), Bailey Laurie (69'), Ed Langdon (71'), Bayley Fritsch (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matthew Jefferson (81'), Final quarter (30m 55s)Kade Chandler (61'), Kysaiah Pickett (71' Tipped ⚡), Harry Sharp (72' ×2) · Hawthorn: Mitch Lewis (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (28' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Max Ramsden (48'), Josh Weddle (55'), Harry Morrison (78'), Connor Macdonald (90'), Massimo DAmbrosio (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 56% | Lost |
| Melbourne | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.0 predicted → 39 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 16 May 2026, 08:58 pm_

Melbourne 120–81 Hawthorn in AFL Round 10 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Hawthorn by 5. Melbourne won by 39. That's about as wrong as a margin call gets, and it's worth sitting with for a second before getting into how it actually played out.

Alphr's rating had Hawthorn at 1750 to Melbourne's 1459, good for a 56% chance and a expected final score around 192 combined. The total was fine, 201 points said the over was always the safer side of that bet. The margin was the problem. Anyone leaning on the ruck and forward line numbers pre-game would have backed Hawthorn to control it. Instead Melbourne walked out to a 39-point win and never looked troubled doing it.

The scoreboard tells the story of a game that started even and finished as anything but. Quarter time had it locked at 21-all. By half time Melbourne had nudged in front, 42-36. Then the third quarter happened: Melbourne 80, Hawthorn 60, a 38-point term to 24. Whatever the model expected Hawthorn's forward structure to do in that period, it didn't happen. From there it was just about how far Melbourne wanted to push it, and the answer was 40 more points in the final quarter to Hawthorn's 21.

Hawthorn actually won plenty of the ledger stats that usually decide these things. They had 395 disposals to Melbourne's 359, more marks (109 to 91), more marks inside 50 (15 to 9), and more inside 50 entries, 57 to 55. Their ruck division dominated, 42 hit-outs to 25, which lines up with the pre-match rating gap of 1201 to 1084 in Melbourne's favour being flipped on its head on the day. None of it mattered.

What actually decided it was the contest. Melbourne won contested possessions 142 to 133 and clearances 37 to 34, modest edges on paper but the kind that let a side dictate terms when it counts. They also tackled more, 50 to 46, and were fractionally more efficient with the ball, 75.5% to 74.9%. Hawthorn had the volume, Melbourne had the control, and Melbourne's defence rating coming in, 1153 to Hawthorn's 1094, showed up exactly where it needed to: limiting what all that extra possession and marking actually turned into on the scoreboard.

Form lines had these two roughly level too, three wins apiece in the last five, both sides averaging 350 disposals, 50 inside 50s and 35 clearances across that stretch. The gap was in scoring. Melbourne came in averaging 102.2 points a game, Hawthorn 94.2, and Melbourne's habit of leaking points, 97 conceded on average against Hawthorn's tighter 78.8, made this result look like an outlier for both sides in different directions. Hawthorn's defensive discipline from recent weeks didn't turn up, and Melbourne's tendency to bleed points simply didn't either.

Alphr's model went 2 from 4 on this one. Right on the total, right that Melbourne would cover a 17.5-point line, wrong on the winner and wrong on the margin by 34 points. Fair to call that one a miss and move on. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 21 | 21 | 38 | 40 | 120 |
| Hawthorn | 21 | 15 | 24 | 21 | 81 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Disposals | **395** |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 133 |
| **37** | Clearances | 34 |
| 55 | Inside 50s | **57** |
| 91 | Marks | **109** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| **50** | Tackles | 46 |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **72** | Intercepts | 70 |
| **75.5%** | Disposal eff. | 74.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Melbourne defied the model's 56% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.0 but the actual margin was 39 points. Melbourne led 42–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 39. The model went 2/4 on this match. Melbourne covered the 17.5-point line. The over 184.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.41 (edge -15.2%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +17.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 184.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 5 · Predicted total: 192

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hawthorn are the call at 56%, but Melbourne stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 291 ELO points clear, 1750 to 1459.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Hawthorn by 5.0, with the two sides combining for about 192. Lean Hawthorn, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Melbourne | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 102.2pts | Avg Score | 94.2pts |
| 97.0pts | Avg Conceded | 78.8pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 15.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W | 102.2 |
| Hawthorn | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 94.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 84 · 94 | 108 · 82 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.6/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.6/g | 11/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 69.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 44 · 30 | 16 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.2/g | 18/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 72.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 6 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 144/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.2/g | 15.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78% | 83.1% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.52/g (lg 2.5) +1% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.45) -9% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.81) -10%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.14) +21% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.45) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 17 in 9g | 18/10g (1·6·0·0·1·0·3·0·2·5) | 7/5g | 57/41g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 73' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 13 in 9g | 15/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·4·2·1) | 13/8g | 110/68g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 12 in 8g | 15/10g (0·3·1·2·4·1·2·2·0·0) | 14/10g | 148/88g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 82' |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 12 in 9g | 12/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·2·1·2·1) | 1/3g | 12/15g | 56% | — | 🏉 72' 77' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·0·0·2·2·1·3·1·1·1) | 4/2g | 17/17g | 59% | — | 🏉 58' 91' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 4/6g | 45/52g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 8/15g | 65/130g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 26/64g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 29/78g | 34% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/6g | 52% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 19% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 6/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 12/24g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/17g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | 1 in 4g | 4/8g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 8g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 28/56g | 38% | — | 🏉 4' 8' 38' |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/45g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/73g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/65g | 16% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 23 in 9g | 24/10g (1·2·4·1·3·1·5·2·2·3) | 4/3g | 42/23g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 84' 86' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 14 in 9g | 17/10g (3·1·0·1·2·3·3·1·2·1) | 5/6g | 63/35g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 73' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 66/52g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·3·0·2·1·1·0) | 7/9g | 56/56g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 79' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·3·0) | 5/5g | 33/42g | 56% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 15/45g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 14/29g | 40% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 7/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (2·2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 17/10g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 9/30g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 5/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 9/29g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/16g | 15/70g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 12/81g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodie Ryan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 10/49g | 20% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Henry Hustwaite | MID | no games | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 31/83g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/33g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 10/38g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 48' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 76% | 24 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 78% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 75% | 27 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 19.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Koltyn Tholstrup ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $2.00 | 73% | 12 ✓ |
| Kade Chandler ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 22 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 24 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 23 ✓ |
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 23.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 23 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 21.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 21 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Henry Hustwaite ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 95% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Melbourne 1459 · Hawthorn 1750 · ELO difference: 291 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Melbourne | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1088 (best 1342) | 1082 (best 1238) | Melbourne +7 |
| Forwards | 1031 (best 1471) | 1058 (best 1480) | Hawthorn +27 |
| Defence | 1153 (best 1488) | 1094 (best 1402) | Melbourne +58 |
| Ruck | 1201 (best 1461) | 1084 (best 1256) | Melbourne +117 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Melbourne |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Melbourne |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 192 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-16 10:58 UTC (latest tip update)