Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
44%
Hawthorn
56%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 44%. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form, but Hawthorn counter with ELO Difference and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 291-point ELO rating advantage (1750 vs 1459). The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 5.0 points with a combined total of 192.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.41
Lost ✗
Edge
-15.2%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +17.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.5%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 184.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | R5L R6W R7W R8L R9W older → newer | 102.2 |
Hawthorn | R5W R6W R7W R8L R9L | 94.2 |
Avg Conceded
97.0
Melbourne
78.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
5.2
Melbourne
15.4
Hawthorn
Disposals
350.0
Melbourne
350.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 192 · Line: -5.0
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.