Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 25 points. Total score prediction of 169 was close to the actual 171, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
53%
Port Adelaide
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 200-point ELO rating advantage (1619 vs 1419). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 2.4 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.23
Winner ✓
Edge
-28.0%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +26.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+24.1%
Margin Band
Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | R5L R6W R7L R8W R9W older → newer | 84.4 |
Port Adelaide | R5L R6L R7W R8L R9L | 79.0 |
Avg Conceded
89.0
Gold Coast SUNS
77.0
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-4.6
Gold Coast SUNS
2.0
Port Adelaide
Disposals
350.0
Gold Coast SUNS
350.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +2.4
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.