# Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 98 – 73 Port Adelaide

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse Port Adelaide._

Half time: 69 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 53% / Port Adelaide 47% · TIO Stadium · Fri, 15 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ned Moyle (10' ×3), Leo Lombard (13'), Ben King (16' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Gulbin (21'), Joel Jeffrey (38'), Jed Walter (50' ×3 Tipped ⚡), John Noble (52'), Christian Petracca (53' Tipped ⚡), Zeke Uwland (59'), Bodhi Uwland (70') · Port Adelaide: Ewan Mackinlay (5' ×2 1st), Mitch Georgiades (9' Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (39' Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (46' ×3), Kane Farrell (79'), Joe Berry (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 53% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 15 May 2026, 11:14 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 98–73 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 10 at TIO Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-seven points up at the main break, forty up three quarters in, that's the story of this one. Gold Coast SUNS led 69–42 at half time, then pushed it out to 90–50 by the last change. Everything after that was just Port Adelaide trying to save some pride, and to be fair, they did outscore the SUNS 23–8 in the final quarter. Wasn't nearly enough. Final score: Gold Coast SUNS 98, Port Adelaide 73.

The gap opened in the second term. Gold Coast SUNS scored 37 to Port's 26 in that quarter alone, turning a 16-point lead into a 27-point one. From there it was about maintaining separation, not building it, and a 21–8 third quarter did exactly that.

Strange thing about this game is Port Adelaide actually won the count where it usually matters most. They had 41 clearances to Gold Coast's 30, which on paper should mean first use of the ball and territory on their terms. Didn't translate. Gold Coast SUNS still ran up 389 disposals to 355 and, more tellingly, used it at 77.6% efficiency against Port's 68.2%. Winning the clearance battle counts for less when the other side is finding a target three times out of four and you're not.

Where Gold Coast really took the game away was going inside 50. They got there 62 times to 55, and once they were in, they made it count with 11 marks inside 50 to Port's 6. That's clean, controlled entries against a scramble. The overall marking numbers back it up too, 94 to 57, which says a lot about which side was dictating terms in the air.

The ratings going in had Port Adelaide's forward line stronger on paper, 998 to 912, and that's usually the sort of edge that shows up on the scoreboard. Instead it was Gold Coast's ruck advantage, 1150 to 1119, and their defence rating, 1113 to 1105, that did the damage. Winning primary use of the footy through the ruck and then locking it down on the rebound outweighed a theoretical forward-line edge that never really showed up in the forward 50 count.

Form lines told part of this too. Gold Coast SUNS came in on the back of three wins from five, Port Adelaide with just one, and Port's average of conceding 77 points a game blew out badly here. Whatever they'd been doing defensively across their last five didn't turn up at TIO Stadium.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast SUNS the right side of the ledger at 53% and picked the winner, no argument there. The margin read was the miss, tipped at 2.4 points and the actual gap ran out to 25. The total was much closer to the mark, 169 projected against 171 actual, within a couple of points.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 32 | 37 | 21 | 8 | 98 |
| Port Adelaide | 16 | 26 | 8 | 23 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **389** | Disposals | 355 |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 141 |
| 30 | Clearances | **41** |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **94** | Marks | 57 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 47 | Tackles | **50** |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| **81** | Intercepts | 77 |
| **77.6%** | Disposal eff. | 68.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 25 points. Total score prediction of 169 was close to the actual 171, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.23 (edge -28.0%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 2 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Gold Coast SUNS and Port Adelaide. The model can't split them, landing on Gold Coast SUNS at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Gold Coast SUNS sit 200 ELO points clear, 1619 to 1419. Form leans Gold Coast SUNS's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Port Adelaide.

Gold Coast SUNS own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. The margin model has Gold Coast SUNS by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 169. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 84.4pts | Avg Score | 79.0pts |
| 89.0pts | Avg Conceded | 77.0pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W | 84.4 |
| Port Adelaide | R5 L · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 79.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 101 · 71 | 70 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 6.7/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.9/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 23 | 30 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 153/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.7/g | 25.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 68.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 11 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.1/g | 8.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.1% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.14) +9% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.5) +6% · Key Forwards 3.79/g (lg 3.81) -1%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.14) +4% · Forwards 4.47/g (lg 4.45) +0% · Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.5) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 32 in 9g | 34/10g (2·4·5·7·3·2·3·2·2·4) | 8/6g | 21/8g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 7g | 15/10g (1·0·1·3·4·0·3·0·2·1) | 9/12g | 3/5g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (0·1·3·0·4·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/2g | 10/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 57% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 6 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·2·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' 67' 92' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 2/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·1) | 3/9g | 3/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 5/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 4 in 9g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 7/10g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/12g | 3/4g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 2% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 10' 57' 81' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | no games | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 5/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 25 in 9g | 29/10g (4·3·2·3·2·2·2·4·3·4) | 10/4g | 0/0g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 15 in 9g | 15/10g (0·2·2·2·1·2·1·2·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·2·0·3·2·0·2·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 69% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 11 in 9g | 14/10g (3·0·3·1·2·2·2·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 48% | — | 🏉 46' 80' 83' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' 48' |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Anastasopoulos | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | no games | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 33 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 31 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 27 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 68% | 23 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 23.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 31 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 83% | 23 ✗ |
| Mac Andrew ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 22 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.94 | 63% | 35 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 21 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 76% | 19 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Christian Moraes ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.88 | 91% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Gold Coast SUNS 1619 · Port Adelaide 1419 · ELO difference: 200 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Gold Coast SUNS | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1112 (best 1475) | 1106 (best 1563) | Gold Coast SUNS +5 |
| Forwards | 912 (best 1418) | 998 (best 1469) | Port Adelaide +86 |
| Defence | 1113 (best 1463) | 1105 (best 1600) | Gold Coast SUNS +8 |
| Ruck | 1150 (best 1341) | 1119 (best 1513) | Gold Coast SUNS +31 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-15 13:14 UTC (latest tip update)