Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 43 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Essendon
39%
Fremantle
61%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 517-point ELO rating advantage (1740 vs 1223). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 1.8 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.15
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.1%
Line / Spread
Essendon +33.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+31.7%
Margin Band
Fremantle 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.88
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | R5W R6L R7L R8L R9L older → newer | 90.2 |
Fremantle | R5W R6W R7W R8W R9W | 89.4 |
Avg Conceded
114.0
Essendon
68.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-23.8
Essendon
20.6
Fremantle
Disposals
350.0
Essendon
350.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Fremantle predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: -1.8
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