# Essendon v Fremantle — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Essendon v Fremantle
Sun, 17 May, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 10

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.15 (edge -26.1%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +31.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2 · Predicted total: 178

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 90.2pts | Avg Score | 89.4pts |
| 114.0pts | Avg Conceded | 68.8pts |
| -23.8pts | Avg Margin | 20.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 90.2 |
| Fremantle | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 89.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-essendon-v-fremantle
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 21:12 UTC