# Essendon v Fremantle — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 61 – 104 Fremantle

_Fremantle see off Essendon._

Half time: 14 – 66 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 39% / Fremantle 61% · MCG · Sun, 17 May, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Sullivan Robey (10' ×2), Archie May (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nate Caddy (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Parish (62'), Will Setterfield (89') · Fremantle: Josh Treacy (2' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Michael Frederick (5' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (19' Tipped ⚡), Chris Scerri (34'), Patrick Voss (39' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (82'), Shai Bolton (72' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (83'), Jye Amiss (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 61% | Won |
| Essendon | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 43 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 04:17 pm_

Essendon 61–104 Fremantle in AFL Round 10 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon spent the day winning the fight for the ball and losing everything that mattered after they got it. Fremantle walked out 104-61 winners at the MCG, and the gap between the two sides' approaches tells the whole story: Essendon wanted the contest, Fremantle wanted the scoreboard.

Look at the clearances. Essendon won that battle 33 to 29, and edged contested possessions 127 to 124. By the numbers you'd think Essendon controlled the game. They didn't. Fremantle picked up 375 disposals to Essendon's 350, ran to 88 marks against 79, and posted the better efficiency, 76.3% to 74.3%. Essendon won the scraps. Fremantle turned the ball into distance.

The scoreline built early and never really wobbled. Fremantle led 34-9 at quarter time, then piled on to be up 66-14 by half time, a second term where they outscored Essendon 32 to 5. By three-quarter time it was 84-30. Essendon's only decent stretch came in the last quarter, outscoring Fremantle 31-20 once the contest had long been decided.

Inside 50s tell the same tale as the disposal count. Fremantle went inside 52 times to Essendon's 47, more entries backed by more efficient use of the ball. Essendon actually won marks inside 50, 11 to 9, and out-tackled Fremantle 64 to 59, evidence they were prepared to work hard without the ball. Problem is, work rate doesn't show up on the board when the other side is running through you at the source. Fremantle's 35 hit-outs to 28 gave them first use out of the ruck, and their positional edge in that department, 1165 to 1103 pre-match, showed up exactly where you'd expect.

The wider positional picture explains why. Fremantle rated stronger in forwards, 1017 to 981, and considerably stronger in defence, 1120 to 1041. Essendon's only real advantage was the midfield, 1172 to 1108, and it wasn't enough to offset getting beaten at both ends of the ground. Winning the clearance count means little if the sides either side of it are getting outplayed.

Form lines pointed this way before a ball was bounced. Fremantle arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging a plus-20.6 margin and conceding just 68.8 a game. Essendon had won one of their last five, conceding 114 a game on average with a margin of minus-23.8. This result sits comfortably inside both trends.

Alphr's model had Fremantle favourites at 61% and picked the right winner, but its margin read of 1.8 points wasn't close to the 43-point gap that actually opened up. A rating gap of 1223 to 1740 suggested this wouldn't be tight, and it wasn't, the model just underestimated by how much.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 9 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 61 |
| Fremantle | 34 | 32 | 18 | 20 | 104 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **375** |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| **33** | Clearances | 29 |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **52** |
| 79 | Marks | **88** |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **64** | Tackles | 59 |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 63 |
| 74.3% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 43 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.15 (edge -26.1%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +31.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2 · Predicted total: 178

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Fremantle are the call at 61%, but Essendon stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 517 ELO points clear, 1740 to 1223. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Fremantle by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 178. Lean Fremantle, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 90.2pts | Avg Score | 89.4pts |
| 114.0pts | Avg Conceded | 68.8pts |
| -23.8pts | Avg Margin | 20.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 90.2 |
| Fremantle | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 89.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 59 · 111 | 79 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 74/g | 83/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.3/g | 10.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 71.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 31 | 40 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 170/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 28.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.3% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 2 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 156/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.2/g | 10.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 82.4% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.45) -6% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.81) -11% · Midfielders 2.21/g (lg 2.5) -12%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.49/g (lg 4.45) +23% · Defenders 1.29/g (lg 1.14) +13% · Key Forwards 4.2/g (lg 3.81) +10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 17 in 8g | 19/10g (1·1·1·4·1·2·1·3·3·2) | 2/2g | 10/13g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 78' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·2·3) | 8/8g | 54/35g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | 9 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·3) | 2/1g | 1/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 60' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 9g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 11/20g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/29g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 14/33g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/13g | 35/81g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 7/9g | 51/51g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 18/33g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 10' 79' |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/57g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 21/53g | 14% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 7/44g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/32g | 10% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 21 in 9g | 23/10g (2·2·4·4·2·0·1·3·3·2) | 6/3g | 16/8g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 22' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 20 in 9g | 21/10g (1·1·0·2·4·2·5·3·0·3) | 6/3g | 18/8g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 85' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·3·3·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·2·2·0·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 14/9g | 91/71g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 8 in 8g | 14/10g (3·3·0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 42' 54' 57' 68' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 9/5g | 16/29g | 68% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 6 in 4g | 14/10g (4·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·1·3) | 7/4g | 7/8g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/10g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 63% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 3/6g | 3/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 7/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 7/10g | 82/85g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/17g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/38g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/42g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.95 | 78% | 30 ✓ |
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 26 ✓ |
| Darcy Parish ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 81% | 20 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 11 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell | 19.5 | $1.94 | 57% | 20 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 19.5 | $1.96 | 60% | 22 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow | 16.5 | $1.71 | 67% | 18 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 27.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 24 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 24 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 25.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 22 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 19.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 17.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 27 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1223 · Fremantle 1740 · ELO difference: 517 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1172 (best 1385) | 1108 (best 1515) | Essendon +65 |
| Forwards | 981 (best 1454) | 1017 (best 1397) | Fremantle +36 |
| Defence | 1041 (best 1451) | 1120 (best 1377) | Fremantle +79 |
| Ruck | 1103 (best 1323) | 1165 (best 1341) | Fremantle +62 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 178 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 06:17 UTC (latest tip update)