Win Probability
AI Game Review
Carlton defied the model's 56% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable result. The predicted margin of 7.9 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 136 points came in 48 points lower than the predicted 184. Carlton trailed 24–34 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 74–62. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 187.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Carlton
44%
Western Bulldogs
56%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 276-point ELO rating advantage (1537 vs 1261). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 7.9 points with a combined total of 184.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.55
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton +12.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.4%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | R5L R6L R7L R8L R9L older → newer | 83.2 |
Western Bulldogs | R5L R6L R7L R8L R9W | 71.2 |
Avg Conceded
102.6
Carlton
109.4
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-19.4
Carlton
-38.2
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
350.0
Carlton
350.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 184 · Line: +7.9
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