# Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu, 14 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 10

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $2.84 (edge +16.0%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +17.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 2 · Predicted total: 192

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 112.8pts | Avg Score | 115.0pts |
| 82.6pts | Avg Conceded | 76.2pts |
| 30.2pts | Avg Margin | 38.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 112.8 |
| Geelong Cats | R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W | 115.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-brisbane-lions-v-geelong-cats
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 21:12 UTC