AFL | Round 10

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 41 points. Total score prediction of 192 was close to the actual 193, within 1 points. Geelong Cats led 45–57 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The over 183.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

51%Geelong CatsFavourite

Brisbane Lions

49%

Geelong Cats

51%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Geelong Cats a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 31-point ELO rating advantage (1759 vs 1728). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 1.8 points with a combined total of 192.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Geelong Cats to Win @2.84

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Geelong Cats +15.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+17.3%

✓

Margin Band

Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 183.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.1%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Brisbane Lions	R5W R6L R7W R8W R9W older → newer	112.8
Geelong Cats	R5W R6W R7L R8W R9W	115.0

Avg Conceded

82.6

Brisbane Lions

76.2

Geelong Cats

Avg Margin

30.2

Brisbane Lions

38.8

Geelong Cats

Disposals

350.0

Brisbane Lions

350.0

Geelong Cats

Inside 50s

50.0

Brisbane Lions

50.0

Geelong Cats

H2H History (Last 5)Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

Sep 2025BRI 122 - 75 GEE

Sep 2025BRI 74 - 112 GEE

Jun 2025BRI 92 - 51 GEE

Mar 2025BRI 70 - 61 GEE

Sep 2024BRI 95 - 85 GEE

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI

1759Overall1728

GEE

ELO difference: +31 in favour of Brisbane Lions

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1125Midfield1085

Best: 1600BRI +40Best: 1478

1030Forwards981

Best: 1600BRI +49Best: 1472

1113Defence1093

Best: 1463BRI +20Best: 1600

1076Ruck1104

Best: 1323GEE +28Best: 1302

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI

Stat

GEE

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

112.8pts

Avg Score

115.0pts

82.6pts

Avg Conceded

76.2pts

30.2pts

Avg Margin

38.8pts

350.0

Disposals

350.0

50.0

Inside 50s

50.0

60.0

Tackles

60.0

35.0

Clearances

35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Lions

Midfield ELO11.0%

Lions

Recent Win Rate10.0%

—

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Lions

Defensive ELO8.0%

Lions

Scoring Form8.0%

—

Venue Advantage7.0%

Lions

Model Confidence

51%

Geelong Cats predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 192 · Line: -1.8

3/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props