Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 68 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 178.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
51%
North Melbourne
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Adelaide Crows carry a 217-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1374). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 1.2 points with a combined total of 186.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.7%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +15.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.7%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 178.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | R5W R6W R7L R8W R9W older → newer | 93.2 |
North Melbourne | R5L R6W R7L R8L R9L | 95.4 |
Avg Conceded
90.2
Adelaide Crows
98.4
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
3.0
Adelaide Crows
-3.0
North Melbourne
Disposals
350.0
Adelaide Crows
350.0
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 186 · Line: -1.2
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