# Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne — AFL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 133 – 65 North Melbourne

_Adelaide Crows run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 90 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 51% / North Melbourne 49% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 16 May, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: James Peatling (11' ×2), Darcy Fogarty (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (17'), Izak Rankine (22' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (34'), Toby Murray (39' ×2), Josh Rachele (46' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Nankervis (48' ×2), Lachlan McAndrew (55' ×2), Brayden Cook (69'), Ben Keays (72' ×2) · North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (4' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), George Wardlaw (18'), Charlie Spargo (75'), Cooper Trembath (90' Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (90' Tipped ⚡), Finn OSullivan (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 51% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 68 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 May 2026, 07:20 pm · Last updated: 16 May 2026, 06:27 pm_

Adelaide Crows 133–65 North Melbourne in AFL Round 10 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows led 26-22 after the first quarter, a game still very much alive. Then the second term happened, and North Melbourne's afternoon effectively ended there. Adelaide poured on 64 points to North's 2 across the quarter, turning a four-point contest into a 90-24 procession by half time. Whatever plan North Melbourne had, it didn't survive that stretch.

From there it was about margin, not outcome. Adelaide added 29 to North's 14 in the third term to push the lead out to 119-38, and though North actually won the last quarter 27-14, the arithmetic was long since settled. Final score: 133-65.

The pre-match numbers said this should have been close. Alphr's model had North Melbourne favoured by 1.2 points on a combined total of 186, and North's own form line backed that up, a 95.4-point scoring average against Adelaide's 93.2. Adelaide's win probability sat at 51%, so the model called the right team, but a predicted margin of 1.2 points against an actual 68-point gap is as wrong as a margin call gets. Two from four on the day, with the total going over 178.5 as tipped, for what little comfort that's worth against a scoreline like this.

Where it actually went wrong for North Melbourne is in the contest away from the ruck. North had the stronger midfield rating coming in, 1111 to 1068, and it showed in the one column that mattered to them: 45 hit-outs to Adelaide's 32. Didn't matter. Adelaide won clearances 41-31 anyway, turning first use of the ball into actual territory, 49 inside 50s to 43, and marking it up when they got there, 16 marks inside 50 to 11.

Adelaide's defence rating, 1151 against North's 1080, is the number that explains the rest of the sheet. 387 disposals to 307, efficiency of 76.5% to 73.0%, and 73 tackles to 42 tell the story of a side that had the ball more, used it better, and made North Melbourne work for every metre they did get. North's forward rating, 996 to Adelaide's 974, suggested they had the tools up forward. They just never got the ball there often enough to use them.

North Melbourne came into this off one win in five, an average margin of minus-3, and conceding 98.4 points a game. Adelaide's four wins in five and plus-3 average margin made them the safer side on paper even before the whistle. Sunday just confirmed it, and then some.

None of it will show up kindly in North Melbourne's stat lines, but the honest read is simple. A four-point contest for one quarter, then a complete disappearance for the next thirty minutes. Adelaide Crows made it count, and North Melbourne never found a way back into it. That's a 68-point beating from a one-point pre-match model, and it's a reminder that ratings tell you who's likely to win, not by how much a team can fall away once the contest turns.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 26 | 64 | 29 | 14 | 133 |
| North Melbourne | 22 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **387** | Disposals | 307 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 100 |
| **41** | Clearances | 31 |
| **49** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **105** | Marks | 72 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **73** | Tackles | 42 |
| 32 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| **53** | Intercepts | 47 |
| **76.5%** | Disposal eff. | 73.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 68 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 178.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.44 (edge -18.7%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +16.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 1 · Predicted total: 186

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Adelaide Crows and North Melbourne. The model can't split them, landing on Adelaide Crows at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 217 ELO points clear, 1590 to 1374. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for North Melbourne.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has North Melbourne by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 186. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 93.2pts | Avg Score | 95.4pts |
| 90.2pts | Avg Conceded | 98.4pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W | 93.2 |
| North Melbourne | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 95.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 79 | 92 · 79 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 9.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 73.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 24 | 22 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 74.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 11 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 9/g | 9.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.22/g (lg 3.81) +37% · Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.14) +29% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.5) +24%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.14) +4% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Midfielders 2.3/g (lg 2.5) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 14 in 9g | 16/10g (2·1·2·1·1·4·1·0·2·2) | 0/4g | 67/45g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 64' 75' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·1·0·0·0·3·2·1·3·1) | 13/10g | 73/81g | 74% | — | 🏉 72' 86' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·0·2·1·2·1·1) | 15/7g | 73/41g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 9/11g | 19/32g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·2·1) | 4/9g | 34/59g | 52% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 6 in 8g | 10/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 3/2g | 25/25g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/2g | 9/21g | 41% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 7/26g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·1·2·2·0) | 19/8g | 118/74g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 44' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 23/53g | 40% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 39' 83' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/3g | 9/20g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' 43' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 8/21g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/48g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 55' 58' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/48g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 2% | — | 🏉 48' 81' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/44g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 18/142g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 18/74g | 6% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 22 in 9g | 25/10g (3·4·6·2·2·1·2·4·1·0) | 19/8g | 19/7g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 17 in 9g | 20/10g (3·1·2·1·2·1·6·2·1·1) | 8/6g | 7/4g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 66' 73' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·1·0·3·3·0·2·0·3·2) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 13 in 9g | 16/10g (3·3·0·2·3·2·3·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 90' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·3·2) | 37/20g | 26/18g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 13/9g | 7/8g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 4/11g | 3/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 5/10g | 36% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 3/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 15/17g | 7/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/15g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 72% | 24 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 67% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 76% | 21 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 22 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 18 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 24.5 | $1.89 | 48% | 28 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.89 | 49% | 20 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 15 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 21.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.89 | 41% | 18 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $2.00 | 45% | 17 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1590 · North Melbourne 1374 · ELO difference: 217 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1068 (best 1313) | 1111 (best 1475) | North Melbourne +43 |
| Forwards | 974 (best 1396) | 996 (best 1525) | North Melbourne +22 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1538) | 1080 (best 1302) | Adelaide Crows +71 |
| Ruck | 1089 (best 1172) | 1094 (best 1600) | North Melbourne +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 186 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-16 08:27 UTC (latest tip update)