Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 81 points. The game's 187 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 168. Western Bulldogs led 67–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 81. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 195.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
66%
GWS GIANTS
34%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 86-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1504). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 11.6 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.5%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +21.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.5%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 195.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 77.6 |
GWS GIANTS | W W L L L | 71.1 |
Avg Conceded
91.8
Western Bulldogs
67.9
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-0.6
Western Bulldogs
4.2
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
370.5
Western Bulldogs
365.6
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
55.6
Western Bulldogs
51.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +11.6
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