# Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 104 – 60 Brisbane Lions

_Sydney Swans sail past Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 66 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 55% / Brisbane Lions 45% · SCG · Sat, 14 Mar, 07:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Malcolm Rosas (3' 1st), Isaac Heeney (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Errol Gulden (14'), Joel Amartey (16' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (23' ×2), Justin McInerney (35' ×2), Brodie Grundy (68') · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bruce Reville (41' ×2), Oscar Allen (75' Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (60' Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (65' Tipped ⚡), James Tunstill (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 55% | Won |
| Brisbane Lions | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Mar 2026, 05:36 pm · Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 10:01 pm_

Sydney Swans 104–60 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 1 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans had this one shut down before most people had settled into their seats. Quarter time read 43 to 9. Brisbane Lions never got within cooee of it after that, and the final margin of 44 points, 104 to 60, was less a scoreline than a formality by the last change.

The gap only grew from there. Half time had Sydney out 66 to 18, three-quarter time 75 to 34. Brisbane's best patch of footy actually came in the last term, outscoring Sydney 26 to 29 to at least make the final margin look less brutal than it could have been. By then it was academic.

The disposal count tells the story of a side that had the ball and knew what to do with it. Sydney finished with 386 disposals to 345 and hit targets at 74.6% against Brisbane's 71.6%. Sydney also went inside 50 sixty-five times to 46, and turned that territory into something with 18 marks inside 50 against Brisbane's 12. Brisbane actually won the overall marking count, 99 to

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 43 | 23 | 9 | 29 | 104 |
| Brisbane Lions | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 60 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **386** | Disposals | 345 |
| 126 | Contested poss. | 126 |
| 23 | Clearances | **45** |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| 92 | Marks | **99** |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **52** | Tackles | 45 |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 22 |
| **81** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **74.6%** | Disposal eff. | 71.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 164, within 4 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 188.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.38 (edge -17.9%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +18.5 @ $1.90 (edge -17.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 188.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 5 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Sydney Swans | 141 – 88 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 126 – 83 | Sydney Swans |
| 2025 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 90 – 92 | Sydney Swans |
| 2025 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 82 – 86 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | PF | Sydney Swans | 60 – 120 | Brisbane Lions |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 3 in 1g | 14/10g (3·2·1·0·0·0·0·3·2·3) | 16/8g | 14/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 3 in 1g | 16/10g (0·3·0·2·4·0·2·0·2·3) | 2/5g | 46/31g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 27' 44' 69' 78' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 3 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·3) | 1/6g | 24/50g | 42% | — | 🏉 35' 66' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 2 in 1g | 22/10g (5·0·1·5·1·1·5·1·1·2) | 19/10g | 136/102g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 52' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 4/24g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 3/15g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/16g | 7/29g | 28% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 47/54g | 64% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 24/61g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·0·3·1·2·0·1) | 4/3g | 46/35g | 78% | — | 🏉 23' 70' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (2·1·2·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 4/4g | 58% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·3·1) | 10/12g | 145/88g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 11/82g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 6/119g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 8/6g | 32/46g | 48% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·2·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 21/120g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 12/26g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/51g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/9g | 23/66g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 16/36g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 18/66g | 8% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 4 in 1g | 15/10g (0·0·0·3·2·1·0·1·4·4) | 11/12g | 6/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 72' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 2 in 1g | 18/10g (2·1·1·2·2·2·3·1·2·2) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (3·2·0·2·2·3·1·2·1·1) | 9/9g | 5/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 14/15g | 6/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·0·0·2·2·4·0·0·1) | 5/3g | 2/1g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Zane Zakostelsky | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 41' 72' |
| – | Daniel Annable | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/16g | 2/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | no games | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 3/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | no games | 14/10g (1·1·3·1·1·1·3·2·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/7g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Callum Mills | 23.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 15 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 22.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney | 21.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts | 18.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 20 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 8 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 18.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 9 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 93% | 28 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 21 ✗ |
| James Jordon ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.77 | 69% | 9 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 28.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 21 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 26.5 | $1.88 | 39% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 22.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 21.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 12 ✓ |
| Keidean Coleman | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 16 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.84 | 67% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 11:01 UTC (latest tip update)