Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 164, within 4 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 188.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
55%
Brisbane Lions
45%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Brisbane Lions are far from out of this at 45%. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 43-point ELO rating advantage (1517 vs 1474). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 5.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-17.9%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +18.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-17.9%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 188.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 92.2 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W W L | 73.1 |
Avg Conceded
83.1
Sydney Swans
93.2
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
9.1
Sydney Swans
-6.2
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
379.6
Sydney Swans
353.8
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
55.2
Sydney Swans
52.2
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1474), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.38).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.1
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