# North Melbourne v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 113 – 67 Port Adelaide

_North Melbourne see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 53 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 36% / Port Adelaide 64% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 15 Mar, 01:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (22' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Stephens (34'), Cooper Trembath (43' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Comben (57'), Colby McKercher (58'), Zane Duursma (59'), Luke Parker (73'), Jack Darling (92' Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (71' Tipped ⚡) · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (9' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Miles Bergman (48'), Corey Durdin (88' ×2), Jack Whitlock (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 64% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Mar 2026, 06:44 pm · Last updated: 15 Mar 2026, 04:17 pm_

North Melbourne 113–67 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 1 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Port Adelaide favourites, 64% to win, on the back of ratings that had them stronger in every position bar the ruck. Expected margin was North Melbourne by 2.7, a total of 169. What actually happened was North Melbourne by 46, and Port Adelaide barely got out of first gear. Ratings are a good starting point. They're not the game.

North Melbourne led by 8 at quarter time, 25 at the half, 38 at three-quarter time, and just kept adding to it. That's not a side that stole a close one, that's a side that built a lead and then built some more. By the finish it was 113 to 67, and the only number moving in Port Adelaide's favour in the final stretch was the margin blowing out further.

Where the pre-match read really fell over was the midfield. Port Adelaide were rated ahead there, 1010 to 963, but North Melbourne won clearances 40 to 29 and turned that into 347 disposals against 287. Contested possessions went the same way, 129 to 112. Whatever edge the ratings saw on paper, it didn't survive first contact.

The one column where the model's positional read actually held up was the ruck. Port Adelaide were rated stronger there, 987 to 1004, and it showed up in the only stat they won on the day: 37 hit-outs to 21. Trouble is, hit-outs without clearances are just a number. Port Adelaide got the taps, North Melbourne got the ball.

Efficiency told the rest of the story. North Melbourne used their possessions at 80.1%, Port Adelaide at 70.0%. Marks were 114 to 74, and inside the forward 50 it was 13 to 9. North Melbourne weren't just getting more looks at goal, they were taking better care of the ball once they had it. That gap, more than any single passage, explains a scoreline that kept stretching rather than settling.

Port Adelaide came in on better recent form, 3.53 wins from their last five compared to North Melbourne's 1.57, and their forward and defensive ratings were rated well clear too, 1074 to 925 and 1056 to 907. None of that showed up on the day. North Melbourne average 105.7 points a game across their last five, and they were within a couple of scoring shots of doubling their own par. Port Adelaide average 81.3 and conceded a fair bit more than their own 92.7 average against.

Inside 50s were close, 50 to 47, which says Port Adelaide had their chances to get the ball forward. What they didn't have was the same conversion once it arrived, or the same grip on the ball in general play.

By Alphr's own scoring, the model went 2 from 4 on this one. It picked the wrong team, and it missed the margin by a fair way. It did nail the spread, with North Melbourne covering the 10.5 handily, and it called the total right, under 187.5 with the game finishing on 180. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 22 | 31 | 35 | 25 | 113 |
| Port Adelaide | 14 | 14 | 22 | 17 | 67 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **370** | Disposals | 287 |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 112 |
| **40** | Clearances | 29 |
| **51** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **119** | Marks | 74 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **58** | Tackles | 52 |
| 21 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **61** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **79.5%** | Disposal eff. | 70.0% |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 64% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 46 points. North Melbourne led 53–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 2/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 10.5-point line. The under 187.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.57 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.89 (edge +0.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 169

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 30/98g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | no games | 14/10g (0·3·0·2·3·0·3·2·0·1) | 11/10g | 95/63g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 26' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/22g | 2% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | no games | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/18g | 33% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | no games | 9/3g (3·3·3) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' 75' 90' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 2/22g | 16% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 2/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 10/30g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | no games | 13/10g (1·1·0·3·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 26/16g | 61/41g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 31/79g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Lachy Dovaston | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/8g | 23/56g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 11/100g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/17g | 35/41g | 38% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | no games | 23/10g (2·1·2·1·0·3·1·5·5·3) | 15/8g | 128/59g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 66' 80' 73' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | no games | 16/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·2·0·5·3) | 5/4g | 49/35g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Blamires | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/4g | 15/42g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/32g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | no games | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/11g | 36% | — | 🏉 59' |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/24g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/7g | 12/15g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 18/22g | 52% | — | 🏉 88' 66' |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | no games | 6/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 7/22g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | no games | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | no games | 4/4g (0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·3) | 3/3g | 6/15g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | no games | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 3/3g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/13g | 22% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | no games | 26/10g (1·5·4·3·2·1·3·2·1·4) | 7/3g | 16/10g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 76' 94' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 3/2g | 3/4g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 55% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | no games | 10/10g (1·5·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/7g | 20/14g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 10/14g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 26.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.89 | 47% | 23 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 23.5 | $2.00 | 42% | 11 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 21.5 | $1.96 | 39% | 24 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 20 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 19 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 16.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 29 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee | 26.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 19.5 | $2.01 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 12 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 17.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 17 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 17.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 12 ✓ |
| Todd Marshall ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.84 | 96% | 14 ✓ |
| Jacob Wehr | 15.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-15 05:17 UTC (latest tip update)