# Melbourne v St Kilda — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 120 – 107 St Kilda

_Melbourne see off St Kilda._

Half time: 61 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 87% / St Kilda 13% · MCG · Sun, 15 Mar, 03:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Caleb Windsor (5' 1st), Jacob van Rooyen (18' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Brody Mihocek (39' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Latrelle Pickett (43'), Jai Culley (76'), Kade Chandler (83'), Jack Steele (84'), Kysaiah Pickett (98' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (31m 2s)Max Gawn (70'), Harry Sharp (90'), Bayley Fritsch (95' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Liam Ryan (6'), Max Hall (8' ×4), Jack Higgins (32' Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (55' ×2), Darcy Wilson (59'), Isaac Keeler (89' Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 87% | Won |
| St Kilda | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 30.5 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Mar 2026, 12:36 am · Last updated: 15 Mar 2026, 04:18 pm_

Melbourne 120–107 St Kilda in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne beat St Kilda 120-107 at the MCG. Fair enough, a 13-point win, job done. Except St Kilda had 411 disposals to Melbourne's 341, ran at 77.9% efficiency to Melbourne's 74.5%, and out-marked them 106 to 82. By most of the ledger that's a side that should have won, not lost by 13.

So how does a team get beaten by 70 more possessions and a cleaner disposal rate? Start at the stoppage. Melbourne's ruck division smashed St Kilda 44 hit-outs to 25, a number that lines up with the 1065-to-946 ruck rating gap coming in. St Kilda still won the clearance count 41-36, which tells you Melbourne's first use of the ball out of the contest, not the count itself, is where the real work got done.

The scoreboard backs that up. St Kilda actually led at quarter time, 28 to 21, doing exactly what a side with a stronger midfield rating (1042 to 1002) should do early. Melbourne clawed it back to lead 61-59 at the half, then pushed it out to 93-89 at the three-quarter mark. St Kilda hung around the whole way and were still within four points heading into the last change. This was not a procession.

Melbourne's forward and defensive ratings, 1089 and 1058 against St Kilda's 1042 and 990, look like the difference when you consider inside 50s: Melbourne won that count 56-53 despite being buried on the disposal count. Fewer touches, more meaningful ones. St Kilda's extra ball use never quite turned into scoreboard pressure to match, and their intercept count, 55 to Melbourne's 53, wasn't enough to offset it either.

Form lines suggest this had been coming. Melbourne walked in averaging 93.4 points a game across their last five with 57 inside 50s a match, both well up on St Kilda's 89.8 and 42.3. St Kilda had the better recent win rate and a healthier average margin, +10.3 to Melbourne's -3.0, but scoring output and forward-half pressure were Melbourne's turf all along, and that's roughly how it played out.

Alphr's model backed Melbourne at 87% and got the winner right. The margin was another story: 30.5 points predicted, 13 delivered, so the model overrated how comfortable this would be. It also undercooked the total badly, tipping 170 combined points against an actual 227. St Kilda's disposal volume and the shootout nature of the final quarter blew that number apart. Credit where it's due, the 10.5-point line was covered and the 1-39 margin band landed, so three out of four calls held up. The margin projection just didn't see St Kilda's stubbornness coming, and neither, really, did the raw stat sheet until you looked at where the points actually came from.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 21 | 40 | 32 | 27 | 120 |
| St Kilda | 28 | 31 | 30 | 18 | 107 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **411** |
| 119 | Contested poss. | **129** |
| 36 | Clearances | **41** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| 82 | Marks | **106** |
| 19 | Marks inside 50 | **20** |
| **42** | Tackles | 41 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| 53 | Intercepts | **55** |
| 74.5% | Disposal eff. | **77.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Melbourne to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.5 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 227 points came in 57 points higher than the predicted 170. Melbourne led 61–59 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 13. The model went 3/4 on this match. Melbourne covered the 10.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $2.45 (edge +46.5%) — model probability 87.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +46.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 31 · Predicted total: 170

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | no games | 22/10g (2·2·1·3·2·3·4·2·0·3) | 14/9g | 139/84g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 95' |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | no games | 12/10g (2·2·2·2·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 14/7g | 154/93g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 57' 74' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/21g | 22% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/27g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 16/103g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/20g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 27/73g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | no games | 13/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·3·2·2·1) | 2/7g | 28/52g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/10g | 27% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 9/12g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 4/20g | 20% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | no games | 12/10g (0·2·2·1·1·0·2·1·2·1) | 3/2g | 47/36g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 20' 41' 50' 64' 78' |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | no games | 9/10g (4·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/68g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 4/3g | 38/47g | 52% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | no games | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/12g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | no games | 19/10g (3·3·2·1·5·1·0·1·1·2) | 7/7g | 103/63g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 98' |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/17g | 62/125g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 24/59g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/64g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/9g | 7% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 2 in 1g | 17/10g (0·1·2·2·2·1·2·3·2·2) | 3/4g | 9/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 2 in 1g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·1·2·2·0·1·2) | 4/4g | 5/7g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 70' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 44/65g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (1·2·0·2·4·2·2·3·0·1) | 13/8g | 45/34g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·3·0·0·1) | 11/10g | 9/10g | 62% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 1 in 1g | 12/10g (1·3·3·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 2/2g | 3/3g | 68% | — | 🏉 8' 61' 72' 93' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·4·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/5g | 3/10g | 38% | — | 🏉 55' 81' |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·5·0) | 1/1g | 1/5g | 46% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | no games | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.57 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 6/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/5g | 34/54g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 8/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 9/8g | 5/12g | 52% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 3/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 16/37g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $2.00 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Harvey Langford | 20.5 | $1.78 | 66% | 9 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Caleb Windsor ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 94% | 21 ✗ |
| Changkuoth Jiath ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.97 | 91% | 19 ✓ |
| Xavier Lindsay ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.84 | 92% | 18 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 18.5 | $1.86 | 57% | 10 ✓ |
| Jai Culley ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 11 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.94 | 76% | 31 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.83 | 95% | 28 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 29.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 32 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 99% | 11 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 20.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.81 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.86 | 75% | 18 ✗ |
| Jack Carroll ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 98% | 15 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia | 16.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-15 05:18 UTC (latest tip update)