Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
87%
St Kilda
13%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Melbourne carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1487). The margin model predicts Melbourne by 30.5 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @2.45
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.5%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +10.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.5%
Margin Band
Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 93.4 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 89.8 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Melbourne
92.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-3.0
Melbourne
10.3
St Kilda
Disposals
339.9
Melbourne
371.5
St Kilda
Inside 50s
57.1
Melbourne
42.3
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1487), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.69).
The model sides with ELO, Melbourne predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Melbourne predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +30.5
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