# Gold Coast SUNS v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 131 – 72 West Coast Eagles

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 84 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 48% / West Coast Eagles 52% · People First Stadium · Sun, 15 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (4' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Christian Petracca (6' ×4), Noah Anderson (16'), Alex Davies (20'), Jarrod Witts (31'), Jy Farrar (40'), Jake Rogers (43'), Daniel Rioli (51'), Ben Long (52' Tipped ⚡), Sam Clohesy (85'), Leo Lombard (88' ×2), Touk Miller (84') · West Coast Eagles: Milan Murdock (8' ×2), Jake Waterman (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Elliot Yeo (67' ×2), Jobe Shanahan (79' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Newton (95'), Archer Reid (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 52% | Lost |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.3 predicted → 59 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Mar 2026, 12:45 am · Last updated: 16 Mar 2026, 09:23 am_

Gold Coast SUNS 131–72 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 1 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast wanted the ball in their hands and West Coast wanted it in dangerous positions, and only one of those plans survived contact. The Suns piled up 369 disposals to 306 and turned that volume into 60 inside 50s against 35. West Coast, for their part, put bodies on the footy and racked up 68 tackles to 46. Pressure alone doesn't win you a game when you can't get it forward, and the scoreboard at People First Stadium ended up 131 to 72.

The timeline tells you this wasn't a slow burn. Gold Coast led 45 to 7 at quarter time, then 84 to 22 at the half. By three-quarter time it was 104 to 56 and the only question left was how far it would stretch. It didn't ease off, either: another 27 points apiece in the last term while the margin held firm.

Start with the ruck, because that's where the game was decided before it was ever decided. Gold Coast won hit-outs 53 to 24, a number that looks almost unfair given West Coast came in rated the stronger ruck division on paper, 1045 to 927. First use of the footy went the Suns' way all day, and from there the clearance count followed: 40 to 30. Contested possessions told the same story, 138 to 116. When you're winning the ball at source that often, the rest of the game becomes a formality.

Gold Coast's forward entries were clean as well as frequent. Fifteen marks inside 50 to West Coast's eight means a side that wasn't just camping in the arc, it was finding targets in good positions once it got there. Sixty inside 50s off 369 disposals is a side playing on its terms, patient enough to build it but happy to use it fast when the chance was on.

West Coast's 68 tackles were the one column where they had the clear edge, and their 96 marks to 80 suggests they had their moments of clean footy too. But marks up the ground don't mean much if you can't turn them into forward pressure, and their 35 inside 50s against Gold Coast's 60 says the ball spent most of its day at the other end. Intercepts went to the Suns as well, 61 to 52, so even when West Coast did move it forward, it kept coming back.

Form lines had flagged this as competitive on paper, with West Coast the more fancied side over the last five and Gold Coast averaging concedes of 80 a game against a side that had been giving up over 90. The pre-match model liked West Coast at 52 percent and picked Gold Coast to win by 12.3 in a 169-point game. Reality delivered 203 points and a 59-point margin the other way. That's a swing that makes the model's job look easy in hindsight and difficult in the moment, which is usually how it goes.

Gold Coast's disposal efficiency, 74.3 percent to West Coast's 74.2, was almost identical, so this wasn't decided by clean hands. It was decided by whose hands got the ball first and how often.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 45 | 39 | 20 | 27 | 131 |
| West Coast Eagles | 7 | 15 | 34 | 16 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **369** | Disposals | 306 |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **40** | Clearances | 30 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 35 |
| 80 | Marks | **96** |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 46 | Tackles | **68** |
| **53** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| **61** | Intercepts | 52 |
| **74.3%** | Disposal eff. | 74.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 52% prediction for West Coast Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 59 points. The game's 203 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 68.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $21.00 (edge +47.0%) — model probability 51.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +68.5 @ $1.89 (edge +47.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 12 · Predicted total: 169

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R1 | West Coast Eagles | 49 – 136 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R21 | West Coast Eagles | 97 – 87 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R7 | Gold Coast SUNS | 112 – 75 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R9 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 113 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2022 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 107 – 104 | West Coast Eagles |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 4 in 1g | 31/10g (1·2·4·6·2·3·7·0·2·4) | 20/6g | 115/49g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.30 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 37' 46' 86' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 3 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·3) | 13/13g | 8/9g | 64% | — | 🏉 6' 22' 24' 70' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 2 in 1g | 19/10g (0·4·2·3·2·3·1·2·0·2) | 8/7g | 27/26g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 3/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 2 in 1g | 3/5g (1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 88' 83' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 30/53g | 36% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 28/91g | 36% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/14g | 26% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 13/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 11/10g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 1/5g | 21% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 12/74g | 26% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·3·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/16g | 28% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 14/49g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/25g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/12g | 24% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/56g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 8/55g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 5/10g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Archer Reid | KF | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.95 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 10/12g | 5/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 67' 70' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | no games | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | no games | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 5/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Newton | FWD | no games | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | no games | 21/10g (2·2·2·0·4·2·3·1·2·3) | 13/7g | 9/5g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 91' 66' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | no games | 10/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·2·1·1·1) | 18/16g | 8/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | no games | 12/9g (1·2·1·1·0·1·3·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.89 | 74% | 34 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.94 | 73% | 23 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 24 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 25 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.92 | 72% | 12 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 19.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 68% | 20 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 24 ✗ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Clohesy | 17.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 17 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 23 ✗ |
| Deven Robertson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 17 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 20.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom Cole | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 9 ✓ |
| Brady Hough | 15.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 10 ✓ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 15.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-15 22:23 UTC (latest tip update)