Win Probability
AI Game Review
Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 52% prediction for West Coast Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 59 points. The game's 203 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
48%
West Coast Eagles
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives West Coast Eagles a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees West Coast Eagles ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. West Coast Eagles carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1484). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 12.3 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @21.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+47.0%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +68.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+47.0%
Margin Band
Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W L L L L | 106.5 |
West Coast Eagles | W W L L L | 82.5 |
Avg Conceded
80.1
Gold Coast SUNS
90.5
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
13.5
Gold Coast SUNS
-5.6
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
335.7
Gold Coast SUNS
346.7
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.7
Gold Coast SUNS
47.0
West Coast Eagles
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1509 vs 1484), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.05).
The model sides with ELO, West Coast Eagles predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +12.3
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