# Geelong Cats v Fremantle — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 110 – 100 Fremantle

_Geelong Cats surge back to claw past Fremantle from 22 down._

Half time: 52 – 74 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 39% / Fremantle 61% · GMHBA Stadium · Sat, 14 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (5' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (20' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jhye Clark (26'), Shaun Mannagh (45' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (97' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Smith (75'), Jack Martin (78') · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (2' ×2 1st), Caleb Serong (10'), Jye Amiss (11' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (16' ×3), Josh Treacy (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (28'), Nathan ODriscoll (32'), Murphy Reid (51'), Hayden Young (74'), Andrew Brayshaw (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 61% | Lost |
| Geelong Cats | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Mar 2026, 05:36 pm · Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 07:47 pm_

Geelong Cats 110–100 Fremantle in AFL Round 1 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle did plenty right here, right up until the final twenty minutes undid it. They controlled the guts of the contest all day, winning clearances 42 to 28 and hit-outs 45 to 26, and for three quarters that dominance showed up on the scoreboard. Fremantle led 96-86 at the last change. Then it all came apart.

Geelong Cats won 110-100 at GMHBA Stadium, and the story of how they did it is really the story of Fremantle's last quarter. Fremantle raced out to a 52-19 lead at the first break, the kind of start built on winning the ball at source and using it forward with purpose. But Geelong steadied, trimming it back to 74-52 at half time and 96-86 at the final change, before turning the last quarter into a rout: Fremantle managed just 4 more points while Geelong Cats piled on 24. That's the difference right there.

The irony is Fremantle won the fight for the ball in the areas that usually decide games. Contested possessions went their way, 132 to 120. Clearances too, comfortably. Their ruck division dominated hit-outs 45-26. None of it mattered in the end because Geelong turned volume into precision. Geelong finished with 361 disposals to 329 and a disposal efficiency of 74.0% against Fremantle's 70.2%, and every time they got the ball moving they made it count, going inside 50 sixty times to Fremantle's 46 and taking 18 marks inside forward 50 to Fremantle's 8. Marks overall told the same story: 111 to 61. Fremantle had the ball more often in dangerous areas early, but Geelong controlled where it ended up.

Pre-match, the model had Fremantle as 61% favourites, with Geelong's ratings edge in midfield (1089 to 1045) offset by Fremantle's advantage in defence (1069 to 1019). Geelong's ruck rating (1063 to 1030) looks better justified now given the final result, even with Fremantle winning the hit-out count outright. Fremantle came into this on the back of scoring at 96 points a game over their last five and averaging 43.6 inside 50s, both miles ahead of Geelong's recent form of 73.4 points and 53.4 inside 50s. On paper this had upset written all over it, and for three quarters it played out exactly that way.

The model called Geelong by 5.9 points and a total of 168. The actual margin was 10, close enough, but the total blew out to 210, forty-two points over the projection. Two sides finishing at a combined 210 points off a plodding first term (Geelong managed just 19) tells you plenty about how differently the last quarter played compared to the rest of the match.

Fremantle will look at the hit-out count, the clearance count, the contested ball count, and wonder how a side dominating all three still lost by ten. The answer is efficiency and forward-half pressure. Geelong found the extra gear when it mattered, Fremantle didn't have an answer for it, and a ten-point away loss is what happens when three quarters of good footy gets undone in one bad one.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 19 | 33 | 34 | 24 | 110 |
| Fremantle | 52 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 100 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **361** | Disposals | 329 |
| 120 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| 28 | Clearances | **42** |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **111** | Marks | 61 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 58 | Tackles | **63** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| **62** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **74.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Geelong Cats defied the model's 61% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 210 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 168. Geelong Cats trailed 52–74 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 110–100. The model went 2/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 13.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $2.63 (edge +22.5%) — model probability 60.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +22.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 6 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 4 in 1g | 16/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·3·0·4·4) | 3/4g | 20/23g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 1 in 1g | 23/10g (5·0·4·3·3·4·1·1·1·1) | 3/2g | 30/18g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 77' 82' 85' 82' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 1 in 1g | 15/10g (3·0·0·3·3·2·0·2·1·1) | 2/1g | 15/14g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 47' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 1/11g | 30% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 46/44g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 42/54g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 13/60g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (0·2·0·4·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 8/8g | 10/8g | 64% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | no games | 36/10g (1·5·11·6·4·0·4·2·3·0) | 29/14g | 122/44g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 5' 65' 67' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/17g | 22/96g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/51g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 15/38g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | no games | 11/10g (2·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·3·0) | 22/16g | 74/70g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 97' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/33g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/14g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/52g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/67g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/45g | 2% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Brandon Walker | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/3g | 34% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | no games | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 69% | — | 🏉 16' 50' 92' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | no games | 18/10g (3·2·1·0·0·3·2·2·3·2) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 56' |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | no games | 15/10g (0·1·2·2·3·3·0·0·3·1) | 5/4g | 1/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | no games | 11/10g (2·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 66% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | no games | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·1) | 4/1g | 4/1g | 77% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | no games | 23/10g (0·1·1·6·3·3·3·0·3·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | no games | 9/10g (2·1·1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | no games | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·2·1) | 7/7g | 0/0g | 68% | — | 🏉 2' 36' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 28.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 96% | 24 ✓ |
| Jhye Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 9 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 27 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 21.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 21.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 18.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.80 | 73% | 22 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 14.5 | $1.94 | 32% | 4 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 26.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 25.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 14 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 78% | 16 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 82% | 19 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 21 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 14 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Judd McVee ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 08:47 UTC (latest tip update)