AFL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

Thu 12 Mar7:30pm
CARCAR
RICRIC
Fri 13 Mar7:40pm
ESSESS
HAWHAW
Sat 14 Mar1:15pm
WBDWBD
GWSGWS
Sat 14 Mar4:15pm
GEEGEE
FREFRE
Sat 14 Mar7:10pm
SYDSYD
BRIBRI
Sat 14 Mar7:35pm
COLCOL
ADEADE
Sun 15 Mar1:10pm
NORNOR
PORPOR
Sun 15 Mar3:15pm
MELMEL
STKSTK
Sun 15 Mar6:10pm
GCSGCS
WCEWCE
GEE
Geelong Cats
VS
FRE
Fremantle
GMHBA STADIUM • SATURDAY 14 MAR, 4:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Geelong Cats defied the model's 61% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 210 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 168. Geelong Cats trailed 52–74 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 110–100. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

61%FremantleFavourite

Geelong Cats

39%

Fremantle

61%

✨

AI Match Overview

Fremantle hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 39%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 5.9 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Fremantle to Win @2.63

Lost ✗

Edge

+22.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Fremantle +13.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+22.5%

✓

Margin Band

Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 178.5 @1.86

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.2%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Geelong Cats
W
W
W
L
L
73.4
Fremantle
W
W
W
L
L
96.0

Avg Conceded

87.1

Geelong Cats

74.0

Fremantle

Avg Margin

12.6

Geelong Cats

17.6

Fremantle

Disposals

376.5

Geelong Cats

340.4

Fremantle

Inside 50s

53.4

Geelong Cats

43.6

Fremantle

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GEE
1530Overall1513
FRE
ELO difference: +17 in favour of Geelong Cats

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1089Midfield1045
GEE +44
1072Forwards1065
Even
1019Defence1069
FRE +49
1063Ruck1030
GEE +33

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GEE
Stat
FRE
2.7
Wins (Last 5)
2.8
73.4pts
Avg Score
96.0pts
87.1pts
Avg Conceded
74.0pts
12.6pts
Avg Margin
17.6pts
376.5
Disposals
340.4
53.4
Inside 50s
43.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cats
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Cats
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Fremantle
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Cats
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Fremantle
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Cats
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

61%

Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.9

2/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props