AFL | Round 1

Geelong Cats defied the model's 61% prediction for Fremantle — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 210 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 168. Geelong Cats trailed 52–74 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 110–100. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

61%FremantleFavourite

Geelong Cats

39%

Fremantle

61%

✨

AI Match Overview

Fremantle hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 39%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 5.9 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Fremantle to Win @2.63

Lost ✗

Edge

+22.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Fremantle +13.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+22.5%

✓

Margin Band

Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 178.5 @1.86

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.2%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Geelong Cats	W W W L L	73.4
Fremantle	W W W L L	96.0

Avg Conceded

87.1

Geelong Cats

74.0

Fremantle

Avg Margin

12.6

Geelong Cats

17.6

Fremantle

Disposals

376.5

Geelong Cats

340.4

Fremantle

Inside 50s

53.4

Geelong Cats

43.6

Fremantle

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GEE

1530Overall1513

FRE

ELO difference: +17 in favour of Geelong Cats

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1089Midfield1045

GEE +44

1072Forwards1065

Even

1019Defence1069

FRE +49

1063Ruck1030

GEE +33

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GEE

Stat

FRE

2.7

Wins (Last 5)

2.8

73.4pts

Avg Score

96.0pts

87.1pts

Avg Conceded

74.0pts

12.6pts

Avg Margin

17.6pts

376.5

Disposals

340.4

53.4

Inside 50s

43.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Cats

Midfield ELO11.0%

Cats

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Fremantle

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Cats

Defensive ELO8.0%

Fremantle

Venue Advantage7.0%

Cats

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

61%

Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.9

2/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props