# Essendon v Hawthorn — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 83 – 145 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 39 – 83 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 74% / Hawthorn 26% · MCG · Fri, 13 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Sam Durham (4' ×2 1st), Xavier Duursma (10' ×2), Dyson Sharp (19' ×2), Zach Merrett (41'), Brayden Fiorini (71'), Nate Caddy (76' Tipped ⚡), Hussien El Achkar (94'), Archie Perkins (84'), Peter Wright (86' Tipped ⚡), Jye Caldwell (88') · Hawthorn: Connor Macdonald (6' ×2), Josh Weddle (9' ×2), Ned Reeves (13' ×2), Jack Gunston (36' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (49' Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (56' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Massimo DAmbrosio (58'), Dylan Moore (75'), Conor Nash (78'), Jack Ginnivan (83' Tipped ⚡), Jai Newcombe (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 74% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 33.9 predicted → 62 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Mar 2026, 07:09 pm · Last updated: 13 Mar 2026, 10:47 pm_

Essendon 83–145 Hawthorn in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon will point to the tackle count first. Forty-six to Hawthorn's 52 isn't a shameful gap, and their contested possessions read 105 to 110, close enough to suggest they turned up for the physical stuff. That's about where the good news ends.

Everywhere the ball actually needed to go, Essendon came up short. Forty inside 50s to Hawthorn's 69. Seven marks inside forward 50 to Hawthorn's 23. Twenty-five hit-outs to 43. Those aren't marginal losses, they're a side getting out-worked at every contest that decides field position, and field position is most of what footy is. Essendon's defensive rating going in, 940 to Hawthorn's 1028, was the shakiest number on the sheet before a ball was bounced, and conceding 62 intercepts to 52 shows Hawthorn kept turning Essendon's own ball back the other way.

The quarter that broke it open was the second. Essendon trailed by only seven at the first change, 27-34, a game still alive. Then Hawthorn scored 49 points to Essendon's 12 in the second term, turning a manageable deficit into 39-83 by half time. From there it was about margins, not momentum. Hawthorn added 39 to Essendon's 20 in the third to push it out to 122-59. Essendon actually won the last quarter, 24 to 23, but the hole was too deep to matter.

Final score: Hawthorn 145, Essendon 83, at the MCG. A 62-point beating built largely in that one horror second quarter.

The disposal and efficiency numbers back up what the scoreboard already showed. Hawthorn finished with 409 disposals to 338 and cleaner hands under pressure, 78.2% efficiency to 76.0%. Hawthorn's ruck stocks were rated only marginally ahead pre-match, 1048 to 1033, yet that edge played out as a lopsided 43-25 hit-out win, which fed a midfield that dominated clearances 41 to 28. The forward line gap was even starker on paper, Hawthorn rated 1093 to Essendon's 997 going in, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: 23 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 7.

None of this should shock anyone who'd looked at recent form. Hawthorn arrived off an average winning margin of 13.2 points across their last five games and an average score near 110. Essendon's recent form sat at an average margin of minus 1.4. One side was building on decent touch, the other still trying to stop the bleeding, and Saturday looked a lot like an extension of both trends rather than a break from them.

Where it gets interesting is the model. Alphr had Essendon as 74% favourites, with a predicted margin of 33.9 points in Essendon's favour and a combined score of 170. None of that held up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 27 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 83 |
| Hawthorn | 34 | 49 | 39 | 23 | 145 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 338 | Disposals | **409** |
| 105 | Contested poss. | **110** |
| 28 | Clearances | **41** |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **69** |
| 75 | Marks | **157** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **23** |
| 46 | Tackles | **52** |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| 52 | Intercepts | **62** |
| 76.0% | Disposal eff. | **78.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 74% prediction for Essendon, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 33.9 but the actual margin was 62 points. The game's 228 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 170. Hawthorn led 39–83 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $4.45 (edge +52.0%) — model probability 74.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +52.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 34 · Predicted total: 170

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 6/55g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | no games | 7/7g (0·2·3·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 7/5g | 17/32g | 42% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 21/51g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 19' 45' |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 14/27g | 38% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | no games | 11/10g (3·2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 10/10g | 49/49g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/43g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | no games | 12/10g (3·0·1·2·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/11g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | no games | 10/10g (1·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 14/8g | 53/33g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 11/31g | 38% | — | 🏉 4' 27' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 9/18g | 44% | — | 🏉 10' 82' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/15g | 34/79g | 30% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 4 in 1g | 38/10g (3·3·4·4·7·2·3·5·3·4) | 28/14g | 234/119g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 61' 73' 73' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·0·2·3·0·1·2) | 14/7g | 62/48g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 2 in 1g | 14/10g (2·0·1·3·0·3·2·0·1·2) | 7/5g | 38/32g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 2 in 1g | 14/10g (1·2·1·2·1·1·1·2·1·2) | 3/2g | 32/19g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' 66' 93' 96' |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 9/25g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·3·1) | 1/1g | 58/31g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 12/77g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 28/38g | 62% | — | 🏉 6' 21' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 8/49g | 16% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 12/7g | 51/52g | 68% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/47g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 12/41g | 42% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 31/79g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 15/66g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/24g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/25g | 40% | — | 🏉 9' 81' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/10g | 10/35g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/19g | 22% | — | 🏉 13' 65' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Parish | 26.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| Zach Merrett | 26.5 | $1.77 | 46% | 32 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 24.5 | $1.77 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts | 24.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Durham | 20.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Zak Johnson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 88% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 18.5 | $1.87 | 30% | 20 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.87 | 35% | 12 ✓ |
| Dyson Sharp | 15.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 6 ✓ |
| Lachlan Blakiston ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 75% | 9 ✓ |
| Zach Reid | 14.5 | $1.83 | 43% | 10 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 22 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.93 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey | 20.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 77% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 20 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 24 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.83 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 21 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Scrimshaw ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-13 11:47 UTC (latest tip update)