# Collingwood v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 79 – 93 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows peck holes in Collingwood._

Half time: 32 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 33% / Adelaide Crows 67% · MCG · Sat, 14 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Nick Daicos (38' ×2), Roan Steele (50' ×2), Beau McCreery (54'), Lachie Schultz (82'), Final quarter (29m 10s)Lachie Schultz (60'), Jamie Elliott (64' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (70' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Alex Neal-Bullen (7' 1st), Riley Thilthorpe (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (42' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (61'), Brayden Cook (65'), Jake Soligo (70'), Luke Pedlar (77' Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 67% | Won |
| Collingwood | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Mar 2026, 08:00 pm · Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 11:13 pm_

Collingwood 79–93 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty nine inside 50s for Collingwood against 55 for Adelaide Crows, and Collingwood still lost by 14. That tells you most of what you need to know about how this one went. Collingwood kept shovelling the ball forward, hopeful and busy. Adelaide Crows kept it, worked it, and made every trip inside 50 count for more. Final score at the MCG: Adelaide Crows 93, Collingwood 79.

The gap opened early and never really closed. Collingwood managed just 1 point in the opening term to Adelaide Crows's 15. By half time it was 32 to 35, close enough that Collingwood could still fancy their chances. By three quarter time it was 46 to 76. Whatever happened in that third term, and the facts here only show the scoreboard moving, Adelaide Crows took a 30 point lead into the final break and Collingwood never got within a sniff of it again. The last quarter was a formality, Adelaide Crows adding to their tally to finish at 93 to Collingwood's 79.

The stats explain why Collingwood's volume of forward entries meant so little. Adelaide Crows won contested possession 139 to 115 and marks overall 117 to 98. That's the sort of grunt work that lets a team control tempo, hold the ball longer, and pick when to go forward rather than just hurling it forward and hoping. Collingwood had four more inside 50s for the game, 59 to 55, but only 10 marks inside there compared to Adelaide Crows's 14. That's the whole story in one stat: Collingwood got it forward, Adelaide Crows made it stick.

Ruck was another one way street. Adelaide Crows won hit outs 35 to 19, giving their midfield first use at a lot of stoppages. Clearances still finished dead even at 29 apiece, which suggests Collingwood's mids competed hard enough at the coalface. The problem was what happened after the clearance, not the clearance itself.

Adelaide Crows were also the sharper side with ball in hand. They had more disposals, 387 to 365, and a better disposal efficiency figure, 72.9 per cent to Collingwood's 71.2. Small margins individually, but they add up over four quarters, especially when paired with 79 intercepts to Collingwood's 71. Adelaide Crows were reading the play better and turning Collingwood's ball movement back against them.

Collingwood weren't disgraced on effort. Tackles went their way, 52 to 48, a sign they were prepared to work hard without the ball. But you can't tackle your way back into a game when the other side is winning the contested ball, the marking contest, and the ruck all at once.

Alphr's model had Adelaide Crows as 67 per cent favourites before the game, with a predicted margin of 5.1 points and a combined score of 168. The actual margin was 14, and the combined score finished at 172, both close enough to call the read a good one. All four of the model's headline picks landed for this match, which is about as clean a result as the numbers can produce. Adelaide Crows's contested and marking dominance did the rest, turning a game Collingwood dominated on paper for entries into a comfortable win on the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 1 | 31 | 14 | 33 | 79 |
| Adelaide Crows | 15 | 20 | 41 | 17 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Disposals | **387** |
| 115 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 29 | Clearances | 29 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| 98 | Marks | **117** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **52** | Tackles | 48 |
| 19 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 71 | Intercepts | **79** |
| 71.2% | Disposal eff. | **72.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 5.1 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 172, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 32–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.12 (edge +20.0%) — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +20.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 3 in 1g | 10/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·3) | 6/9g | 124/115g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/7g | 42/58g | 34% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·2) | 8/7g | 38/32g | 70% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·4·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 10/8g | 44/40g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 7/9g | 39/71g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 1 in 1g | 20/10g (3·2·1·1·0·2·2·4·4·1) | 24/15g | 219/135g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' 82' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 17% | — | 🏉 50' 68' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/29g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 15/140g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/17g | 8/31g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/31g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/77g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 51/155g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 30/88g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/24g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 33/60g | 56% | — | 🏉 38' 85' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 29/59g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 80/185g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·1·3·0·0) | 10/17g | 105/183g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 13/11g | 57/31g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/14g | 61/93g | 42% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | no games | 11/10g (2·0·1·3·0·1·0·3·0·1) | 0/12g | 7/12g | 70% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | no games | 4/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/5g | 30% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/13g | 14/17g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | no games | 12/10g (2·3·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 16/12g | 18/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 73' |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 5/7g | 40% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·3·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | no games | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 5/14g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | no games | 20/10g (2·2·1·5·3·3·0·2·0·2) | 4/5g | 10/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | no games | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·0·1·1·3·3·1) | 7/4g | 2/3g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | no games | 27/10g (0·6·2·3·4·3·1·3·2·3) | 6/7g | 9/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 63' 73' |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | no games | 19/10g (2·2·2·2·3·3·2·1·2·0) | 28/16g | 48/26g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 87% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.93 | 53% | 33 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.77 | 74% | 28 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.77 | 85% | 32 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 21.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 78% | 12 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 24 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 18.5 | $1.93 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 22 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 17.5 | $1.87 | 36% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 17.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 20 ✗ |
| Ned Long | 16.5 | $1.93 | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Lachie Schultz ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 15.5 | $1.84 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.82 | 46% | 17 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 25 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 21.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 68% | 34 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 14 ✓ |
| James Peatling | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 20 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 87% | 24 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 13 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 15.5 | $1.81 | 55% | 19 ✗ |
| Max Michalanney ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.86 | 66% | 16 ✗ |
| Isaac Cumming | 14.5 | $1.84 | 41% | 19 ✗ |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 13.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 15 ✗ |
| Callum Ah Chee | 13.5 | $1.84 | 50% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 12:13 UTC (latest tip update)