Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 5.1 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 172, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 32–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
33%
Adelaide Crows
67%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Collingwood with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 5.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @2.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +4.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.0%
Margin Band
Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W W L L | 108.8 |
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 71.9 |
Avg Conceded
80.6
Collingwood
79.2
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
6.2
Collingwood
10.8
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
341.5
Collingwood
330.7
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
43.0
Collingwood
56.4
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: -5.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.