Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 50% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Carlton by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. A clean sweep — all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Carlton
50%
Richmond
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Carlton a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 104-point ELO rating advantage (1597 vs 1493). Recent form favours Carlton with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Carlton by 2.9 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-24.8%
Line / Spread
Richmond +21.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
-24.8%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WWLLL | 80.3 |
Richmond | WLLLL | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
71.5
Carlton
69.4
Richmond
Avg Margin
0.4
Carlton
19.5
Richmond
Disposals
347.5
Carlton
347.0
Richmond
Inside 50s
54.3
Carlton
55.5
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Carlton predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +2.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.