# Carlton v Richmond — AFL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 75 – 71 Richmond

_Carlton scrape past Richmond in a tight one._

Half time: 63 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 50% / Richmond 50% · MCG · Thu, 12 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Harry McKay (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Marc Pittonet (5'), Mitch McGovern (7' ×2), Brodie Kemp (10' Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (23'), Will Hayward (52' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Lord (62'), Zac Williams (85') · Richmond: Steely Green (8' ×2), Rhyan Mansell (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Lynch (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (47' ×2), Jayden Short (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 50% | Won |
| Richmond | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Mar 2026, 08:30 am · Last updated: 12 Mar 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 75–71 Richmond in AFL Round 1 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton played it tight and territorial. Richmond played it loose and ambitious. Final score, 75 to 71, tells you the tight version won, just.

The gap in style shows up everywhere in the stat sheet. Richmond went inside 50 sixty times to Carlton's 43, a difference of 17 entries that on paper should have buried them. Richmond also marked it inside forward 50 fifteen times to Carlton's seven, twice as clean once they got there. All that ambition, and it still wasn't enough.

Because Carlton controlled where the ball started. Thirty-seven clearances to 29, contested possessions 138 to 127, and a ruck contest that was basically one-way traffic: 39 hit-outs to 24. Carlton's ruck rating (1154 to Richmond's 990) and midfield edge (1112 to 1031) were the two biggest pre-match gaps between the sides, and that's exactly where the game was decided. Win the taps, win the clearances, and you don't need seventeen extra forward entries. You just need the right seven.

The shape of the scoreboard backs this up. Carlton raced out to 40 points at quarter time against Richmond's 21, then stretched it to 63-36 at the main break. That's a 27-point buffer built almost entirely on first use of the ball. Richmond's method, patient build-up through the corridor via all that mark-up-the-ground work (97 marks to Carlton's 75), takes time to click, and by the time it did, the margin was already ugly.

And it did click, eventually. Richmond outscored Carlton in both the third and final terms, dragging the margin from 27 points down to single figures late. Carlton led 67-54 at three-quarter time, a lead of 13, and then watched Richmond find another 17 points in the last quarter to Carlton's 8. That's the passage that made this a genuine contest rather than a formality. Richmond just started the comeback too late to finish it.

Disposal efficiency tells a similar story in miniature: Richmond actually used it better, 74.1 per cent to 72.2, and had more of it too, 355 to 367 isn't far off even. Richmond weren't sloppy. They were just starting from further back on the park too often, chasing territory Carlton had already claimed at the source.

Carlton's defensive rating (1151 to Richmond's 995) coming in matched what played out, a backline that had to survive fifteen inside-50 marks and still only conceded 71. Richmond's recent form had them a wildly inconsistent outfit, an average losing margin of 19.5 points across their last five compared to Carlton's near-even 0.4, and glimpses of both versions showed up here: the class to nearly run down a 27-point deficit, and the same old third-quarter softness that let Carlton get out to it in the first place.

Alphr's model had Carlton by 2.9 points before a ball was bounced, with the total sitting at 169. The actual margin landed at 4, the actual total 23 points lower at 146. A scrappier, tighter game than projected, but the read on the winner and the closeness of it both held up. Four from four on the picks for this one, and the ruck and clearance numbers explain why.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 40 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 75 |
| Richmond | 21 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 71 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **367** | Disposals | 355 |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 127 |
| **37** | Clearances | 29 |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 75 | Marks | **97** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| **53** | Tackles | 49 |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| **70** | Intercepts | 69 |
| 72.2% | Disposal eff. | **74.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 50% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carlton by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 4 points. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.33 (edge -24.8%) — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +21.5 @ $1.89 (edge -24.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 3 · Predicted total: 169

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 3 in 1g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·3) | 0/3g | 5/32g | 20% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 2 in 1g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·2·0·2·0·1·2) | 5/9g | 5/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (0·4·1·0·1·1·5·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 11/10g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 1 in 1g | 19/10g (0·3·2·0·1·1·3·7·1·1) | 16/9g | 98/48g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 44' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (1·3·0·1·3·0·3·0·2·1) | 7/8g | 27/22g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Campbell Chesser | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 15/49g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | no games | 3/5g (0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 7/76g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 17/36g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·3·4·0·1·1·0) | 5/10g | 33/43g | 28% | — | 🏉 7' 15' |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/21g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/16g | 39/89g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 15/47g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·3·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 3/14g | 17/37g | 52% | — | 🏉 85' |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/40g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | no games | 6/8g (0·2·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 12/33g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/50g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 8/40g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 18/103g | 12% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | no games | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/9g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Josh Gibcus | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/14g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 16/30g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/93g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 10/7g | 26/57g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | no games | 12/10g (0·1·3·0·3·0·1·2·1·1) | 2/4g | 28/43g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 75' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/26g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | no games | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 2/1g | 9/7g | 62% | — | 🏉 47' 69' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | no games | 11/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·3·2) | 3/3g | 18/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 9/14g | 43% | — | 🏉 8' 40' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 31/50g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 26/92g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | no games | 17/10g (0·2·2·2·0·3·1·1·3·3) | 45/16g | 154/69g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 90' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 30 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.83 | 87% | 32 ✗ |
| George Hewett | 26.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 23 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 14 ✓ |
| Cooper Lord ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 20 ✓ |
| Zac Williams ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Elijah Hollands | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 14 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan | 16.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| Campbell Chesser | 15.5 | $1.82 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Harry McKay | 14.5 | $1.78 | 62% | 12 ✓ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 14.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 8 ✓ |
| Mitch McGovern ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.92 | 69% | 15 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.77 | 64% | 29 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 20.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Kane McAuliffe ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 86% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 19 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| James Trezise | 14.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 12 ✓ |
| Nathan Broad | 13.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 15 ✗ |
| Noah Balta ⚡ Under | 12.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 19 ✗ |
| Ben Miller | 12.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 17 ✗ |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | 12.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-12 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)