Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 201 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 168. Sydney Swans trailed 18–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 132–69. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
60%
Carlton
40%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 40%. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 89-point ELO rating advantage (1599 vs 1510). The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 2.3 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-17.0%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 91.2 |
Carlton | W W W L L | 93.2 |
Avg Conceded
91.4
Sydney Swans
93.5
Carlton
Avg Margin
3.7
Sydney Swans
5.7
Carlton
Disposals
360.9
Sydney Swans
344.7
Carlton
Inside 50s
46.5
Sydney Swans
53.5
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1599 vs 1510), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.30).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +2.3
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