# Sydney Swans v Carlton — AFL Opening Round 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 132 – 69 Carlton

_Sydney Swans roar back to ruffle the feathers of Carlton._

Half time: 18 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 60% / Carlton 40% · SCG · Thu, 05 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Joel Amartey (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Malcolm Rosas (46'), Justin McInerney (63' ×3), Logan McDonald (67' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Curnow (73' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Matt Roberts (83' ×2), Tom Papley (95' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (31m 31s)Brodie Grundy (59'), Chad Warner (64'), Angus Sheldrick (76'), James Rowbottom (83') · Carlton: Brodie Kemp (6' 1st), Will Hayward (8' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Marc Pittonet (55' ×3), Elijah Hollands (80'), Harry McKay (66' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 60% | Won |
| Carlton | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 63 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 02:20 pm · Last updated: 11 Mar 2026, 02:33 pm_

Sydney Swans 132–69 Carlton in AFL Opening Round at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventy five to twenty six. That's the third term alone, Sydney Swans against Carlton, and it's the number that turned a two-goal half-time deficit into a procession. Final score: Sydney Swans 132, Carlton 69, and the only real contest was in the opening two quarters.

Because for a while there, Carlton looked the part. They led 14 to 3 at quarter time and were still up 28 to 18 at the main break, which lines up with the pre-match numbers: Carlton came in rated stronger everywhere, midfield 1134 to 1023, forwards 1071 to 964, defence 1147 to 1032, ruck 1125 to 990. Alphr's model had Sydney as a 60% chance but only by 2.3 points, with a combined total of 168. Through half time, that read looked sound.

Then the third quarter happened, and the wheels came off for Carlton entirely. Sydney outscored them 75 to 26 in that term to lead 93 to 54 at the three-quarter time siren, then added another 39 to Carlton's 15 in the last to close it out 132 to 69. A combined 201 points, 33 more than the model expected, and a final margin of 63 in a game tipped at 2.3. The win probability call landed. The margin didn't come within cooee.

The hit-out count tells you where the platform came from. Sydney's ruck division, rated the weaker unit going in at 990 to 1125, still won the hit-out battle 48 to 34. That's not supposed to happen against a bigger-rated pack, but it did, and it fed everything else. Sydney also won the disposal efficiency read, 72.4% to 70.2%, and picked Carlton apart inside forward 50 with 12 marks there to just 5.

Carlton actually won the arm-wrestle for the ball itself, 151 contested possessions to 134, and edged total marks 69 to 64. On paper that's the side doing the dirty work. But none of it translated to scoreboard pressure, because Sydney went inside 50 sixty-seven times to fifty and tackled like their finals spot depended on it, 67 tackles to Carlton's 38. Winning the footy at stoppages means little if you can't stop the opposition using it, and Carlton couldn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 3 | 15 | 75 | 39 | 132 |
| Carlton | 14 | 14 | 26 | 15 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **384** | Disposals | 382 |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **151** |
| **40** | Clearances | 39 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| 64 | Marks | **69** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **67** | Tackles | 38 |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 34 |
| **77** | Intercepts | 72 |
| **72.4%** | Disposal eff. | 70.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 201 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 168. Sydney Swans trailed 18–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 132–69. The model went 2/4 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 23.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.30 (edge -17.0%) — model probability 60.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 2 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 26% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 6/28g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/81g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 7/6g | 46/53g | 62% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | no games | 14/10g (3·3·2·1·0·0·0·0·3·2) | 0/0g | 11/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 96' 79' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 6/118g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 32/45g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | no games | 22/10g (2·5·0·1·5·1·1·5·1·1) | 18/13g | 134/101g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' 92' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·1·2·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 21/119g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 12/25g | 28% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 2/7g | 23/60g | 36% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | no games | 16/10g (3·0·3·0·2·4·0·2·0·2) | 5/3g | 43/30g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 75' 69' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/7g | 21/49g | 38% | — | 🏉 63' 65' 86' |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/50g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | no games | 13/10g (4·1·1·0·1·0·3·1·2·0) | 5/3g | 45/34g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | no games | 10/10g (2·2·1·2·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 3/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/23g | 6% | — | 🏉 83' 90' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/8g | 23/65g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 16/35g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 18/65g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | no games | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·3) | 16/11g | 144/87g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 95' |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | no games | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·4·0·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | no games | 11/10g (0·1·3·1·1·2·0·2·0·1) | 6/9g | 1/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 80' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | no games | 12/10g (0·0·4·1·0·1·1·5·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Campbell Chesser | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | no games | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 16/60g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | no games | 21/10g (3·0·3·2·0·1·1·3·7·1) | 10/8g | 7/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | no games | 6/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Liam Reidy | RUC | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | no games | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 55' 61' 88' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | no games | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·4·0·1·1) | 10/10g | 3/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 20/84g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 11/14g | 6/9g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | no games | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 5/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | no games | 14/10g (1·1·3·0·1·3·0·3·0·2) | 0/0g | 93/80g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | no games | 10/10g (1·1·3·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/12g | 4/7g | 54% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 27 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Callum Mills | 22.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 23 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney | 19.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 31 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | $1.89 | 44% | 16 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.95 | 43% | 18 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 17.5 | $1.90 | 39% | 18 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 20 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 26.5 | $1.83 | 50% | 32 ✗ |
| George Hewett | 26.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 27 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 20.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Zac Williams | 18.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Cooper Lord | 17.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 26 ✗ |
| Elijah Hollands | 16.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 19 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-11 03:33 UTC (latest tip update)