# St Kilda v Collingwood — AFL Opening Round 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 66 – 78 Collingwood

_Collingwood roar back to sink St Kilda._

Half time: 37 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 69% / Collingwood 31% · MCG · Sun, 08 Mar, 07:20 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Bradley Hill (12' 1st), Cooper Sharman (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (47'), Mitch Owens (69' Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (81' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (27m 23s)Liam Ryan (62'), Jack Higgins (65' Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Jordan de Goey (17' ×3), Lachie Schultz (24' ×2), Daniel McStay (28'), Beau McCreery (63'), Roan Steele (79'), Darcy Cameron (86'), Jamie Elliott (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 69% | Lost |
| Collingwood | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 02:20 pm_

St Kilda 66–78 Collingwood in AFL Opening Round at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked St Kilda by 2.2 points and had this one finishing as a 168-point shootout. What actually turned up at the MCG was a Collingwood win by 12, 78 to 66, in a game that finished 24 points short of that total. All four of Alphr's picks missed. That's the ledger, and the story of how it went wrong is worth walking through quarter by quarter.

On paper the read wasn't silly. St Kilda came in scoring more heavily over their last five games, 102.4 points a game to Collingwood's 90.8, with a tidier average margin too. Collingwood's form was stronger by wins, 3.85 to 1.46 across that same stretch, but they were also conceding more, 83.5 points a game against St Kilda's 73.2. Two teams trending in opposite directions. The overall rating gap, 1540 to 1475 in Collingwood's favour, was the number that mattered most and it wasn't backed hard enough.

Early on the model looked sharp. Collingwood led at quarter time, 27 to 16, before St Kilda hit back to edge in front 37 to 35 at half time. That's a tight, live contest, exactly the shape the numbers pointed to. It didn't hold.

Collingwood took over in the third quarter, outscoring St Kilda 35 to 15 to lead 70 to 52 at the last change. St Kilda's final term, 14 points to 8, came after the contest was already decided. The three-quarter time margin of 18 points was effectively the winning margin, plus a bit more.

The contested numbers make the scoreline look odd at first glance. St Kilda won the contested possession count, 128 to 113, won clearances 31 to 29, and piled forward 63 times to Collingwood's 40. On raw pressure and territory, St Kilda had the better of it. None of it showed up on the scoreboard.

Marks explain the gap. Collingwood finished with 147 to St Kilda's 92, and inside forward 50 it was 10 marks to 6. St Kilda kept getting the ball forward but couldn't convert that territory into clean possession once it arrived. Collingwood also had the better disposal efficiency, 76.3% to 73.1%, and racked up more total disposals, 434 to 387, so their extra ball use in general play compounded the marking edge.

That pattern lines up with the positional ratings going in. Collingwood's defence was rated 1053 to St Kilda's 927, and their ruck 1065 to 926, both sizeable advantages. A stronger defensive unit taking more of the intercept work, 74 to 71, and a dominant ruck setup, reflected in Collingwood's spread of marks, goes a long way to explaining how a team that lost the clearance count and the inside 50 count by wide margins still won by 12.

St Kilda did win the tackle count, 57 to 53, and had more hit-outs, 28 to 21, proof they were competitive in the areas that don't always show up on the scoreboard. But territory and pressure without targets inside 50 is just running metres. Collingwood made better use of fewer trips forward, and that's the whole game in one sentence.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 16 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 66 |
| Collingwood | 27 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Disposals | **434** |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| **31** | Clearances | 29 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| 92 | Marks | **147** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| **57** | Tackles | 53 |
| **28** | Hit-outs | 21 |
| 71 | Intercepts | **74** |
| 73.1% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Collingwood defied the model's 69% prediction for St Kilda, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 144 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 168. Collingwood trailed 37–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 66–78. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.80 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 69.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 2 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 43/64g | 26% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | no games | 16/10g (1·0·1·2·2·2·1·2·3·2) | 2/2g | 7/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 50' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | no games | 10/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·5) | 2/2g | 1/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | no games | 16/10g (0·1·2·0·2·4·2·2·3·0) | 16/10g | 44/33g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 6/25g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 34/53g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 8/21g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | no games | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·1·3·0·0) | 10/9g | 8/9g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 65% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | no games | 9/10g (3·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 5/11g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | no games | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/3g | 3/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | no games | 12/10g (1·1·3·3·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 2/2g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | no games | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·1·1·2·2·0·1) | 1/4g | 3/6g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | no games | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·2·4·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/9g | 34% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | no games | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 6/15g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 3/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 16/36g | 28% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 40/57g | 32% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 15/139g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 8/30g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | no games | 9/10g (2·0·4·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 43/39g | 68% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 38/70g | 28% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/30g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/76g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | no games | 11/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·3) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 51/154g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | no games | 23/10g (4·3·2·1·1·0·2·2·4·4) | 18/11g | 218/134g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | no games | 9/10g (2·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 12/6g | 121/114g | 60% | — | 🏉 17' 22' 75' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 30/87g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | no games | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 8/6g | 36/31g | 68% | — | 🏉 24' 58' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | no games | 8/10g (1·0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 33/59g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | no games | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 29/58g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 80/184g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | no games | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1·3·0) | 5/12g | 105/182g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | no games | 14/10g (2·2·2·2·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 2/1g | 57/30g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | no games | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 30.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 35 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 94% | 28 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 23.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 18 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 18.5 | $1.88 | 43% | 24 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 78% | 20 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.87 | 32% | 6 ✓ |
| Max Hall | 15.5 | $1.92 | 48% | 17 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 15.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 15.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 17 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 41 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.86 | 69% | 36 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 21.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 19 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 28 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 18.5 | $1.86 | 42% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $2.00 | 38% | 26 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 13 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 16.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 15.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 19 ✗ |
| Beau McCreery ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 16 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r0-st-kilda-v-collingwood
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-11 03:20 UTC (latest tip update)