Win Probability
AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Hawthorn — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 27 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
39%
Hawthorn
61%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1477). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 3.3 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.44
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.0%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.0%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W W L | 79.5 |
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 89.7 |
Avg Conceded
66.6
GWS GIANTS
71.0
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-1.5
GWS GIANTS
0.5
Hawthorn
Disposals
377.6
GWS GIANTS
368.9
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
42.8
GWS GIANTS
49.2
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +3.3
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.