AFL | Opening Round

alphr.com.au

GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
HAW
Hawthorn
ENGIE STADIUM • SATURDAY 7 MAR, 4:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Hawthorn — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 27 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

61%HawthornFavourite

GWS GIANTS

39%

Hawthorn

61%

✨

AI Match Overview

Hawthorn hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1577 vs 1548). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 3.3 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hawthorn to Win @1.44

Lost ✗

Edge

-8.0%

✗

Line / Spread

GWS GIANTS +14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.0%

✓

Margin Band

Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 170.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
WWLLL
85.2
Hawthorn
WWWWL
89.0

Avg Conceded

89.4

GWS GIANTS

74.4

Hawthorn

Avg Margin

-4.2

GWS GIANTS

14.6

Hawthorn

Disposals

355.8

GWS GIANTS

346.4

Hawthorn

Inside 50s

50.0

GWS GIANTS

50.0

Hawthorn

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1577 vs 1548), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.44).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1577Overall1548
HAW
ELO difference: +29 in favour of GWS GIANTS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1093Midfield1235
Best: 1107HAW +142Best: 1274
977Forwards1078
Best: 1139HAW +101Best: 1244
1112Defence1151
Best: 1297HAW +40Best: 1261
1190Ruck1206
Best: 1337HAW +16Best: 1206

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
HAW
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
85.2pts
Avg Score
89.0pts
89.4pts
Avg Conceded
74.4pts
-4.2pts
Avg Margin
14.6pts
355.8
Disposals
346.4
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
73.8
Tackles
58.0
42.2
Clearances
36.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
GIANTS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Hawthorn
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hawthorn
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Hawthorn
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Hawthorn
6
Scoring Form8.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

61%

Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +3.3

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props