# GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn — AFL Opening Round 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 122 – 95 Hawthorn

_GWS GIANTS tower over Hawthorn._

Half time: 82 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 39% / Hawthorn 61% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 07 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jake Riccardi (2' ×3 1st), Max Gruzewski (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (18'), Jake Stringer (20' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (22' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Stephen Coniglio (57' ×2), Harry Rowston (90'), Clayton Oliver (99'), Phoenix Gothard (94') · Hawthorn: Jack Ginnivan (4' ×2), Lloyd Meek (8'), Nick Watson (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (26' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Sam Butler (35' ×2), Mabior Chol (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 61% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 02:20 pm_

GWS GIANTS 122–95 Hawthorn in AFL Opening Round at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen marks inside forward 50 to nine. That's the stat that decided it, and the scoreboard reflects it plainly: GWS GIANTS 122, Hawthorn 95 at ENGIE Stadium. When you're taking marks inside your own forward line at that rate, you're not scrambling for snap shots under pressure, you're setting up quality looks at goal, and that's the difference between a comfortable win and a genuine arm wrestle.

The timeline backs up how one-sided this was for long stretches. GWS GIANTS led 51-32 at quarter time, extended it to 82-47 by half time, and had the game well shut down at 114-73 heading into the final term. Working out the actual quarter-by-quarter split, GWS GIANTS' biggest term was the third (32 points to Hawthorn's 26), while both sides had their most productive quarter in that same period. Hawthorn's final term, 22 points to GWS GIANTS' 8, was their best scoring stretch of the day, but by then it was a matter of arithmetic, not momentum.

What makes this one worth a second look is that Hawthorn came in rated stronger everywhere that matters on paper. Better ruck (1106 to 975), better defence (1065 to 966), better midfield (1036 to 926), better forward line too. Their recent form had them averaging more points a game (89.65 to 79.47) and winning more often across their last five outings. None of that showed up where it counted on the day. GWS GIANTS won the disposal count 357 to 341, the contested ball 134 to 123, the clearances 44 to 37, and used that platform to push forward 63 times to 58.

Hawthorn's genuine advantage was in reading the ball in defence.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 51 | 31 | 32 | 8 | 122 |
| Hawthorn | 32 | 15 | 26 | 22 | 95 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **357** | Disposals | 341 |
| **134** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| **44** | Clearances | 37 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 58 |
| **91** | Marks | 78 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **50** | Tackles | 43 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **74** |
| 74.8% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 27 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 14.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.44 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | no games | 12/10g (2·1·1·2·0·0·5·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 30/19g | 54% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 99' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 6/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 60/63g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 19% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 7/13g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/28g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | no games | 10/10g (2·1·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/3g | 32/28g | 72% | — | 🏉 2' 16' 68' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | no games | 22/10g (3·2·2·1·4·3·3·1·3·0) | 20/12g | 14/12g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 47' 63' 80' 97' |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | no games | 21/10g (1·4·0·2·6·2·1·2·0·3) | 26/10g | 89/28g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 29' 33' |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 8/25g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/36g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 30/91g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | no games | 11/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·2·0·3·3) | 0/1g | 7/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 45' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 34/77g | 26% | — | 🏉 57' 73' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | no games | 19/10g (0·2·3·2·2·1·3·2·4·0) | 17/15g | 147/87g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 83% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/7g | 7/26g | 32% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | no games | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1·1) | 8/6g | 5/3g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | no games | 10/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 9/9g | 2/3g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | no games | 11/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·2·3·0·1) | 6/7g | 3/1g | 72% | — | 🏉 4' 71' |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | no games | 35/10g (1·3·3·4·4·7·2·3·5·3) | 33/14g | 17/7g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 42' 87' 91' |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/8g | 1/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/13g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | no games | 17/10g (5·2·0·1·3·0·3·2·0·1) | 10/7g | 7/4g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 89' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | no games | 11/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·3) | 3/5g | 0/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | no games | 13/10g (1·1·2·1·2·1·1·1·2·1) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 82' |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 35' 81' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 27 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 26.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 26 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 26.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 26 ✓ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.83 | 86% | 20 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 22 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 94% | 15 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| Jayden Laverde | 15.5 | $1.95 | 42% | 14 ✓ |
| Ryan Angwin | 15.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 12 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.97 | 73% | 25 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 90% | 20 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 20.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.96 | 45% | 13 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.83 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 17.5 | $1.96 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 17.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r0-gws-giants-v-hawthorn
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-11 03:20 UTC (latest tip update)