Win Probability
AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 61% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 27 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
39%
Hawthorn
61%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1477). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 3.3 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.44
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.0%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.0%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W W L | 79.5 |
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 89.7 |
Avg Conceded
66.6
GWS GIANTS
71.0
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-1.5
GWS GIANTS
0.5
Hawthorn
Disposals
377.6
GWS GIANTS
368.9
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
42.8
GWS GIANTS
49.2
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +3.3
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.