# Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs — AFL Opening Round 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 106 – 111 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs fight back to let the dogs loose on Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 43 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 34% / Western Bulldogs 66% · Gabba · Sat, 07 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (4' ×4 1st), Zac Bailey (9' Tipped ⚡), Zane Zakostelsky (26'), Dayne Zorko (54'), Kai Lohmann (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Oscar Allen (82'), Logan Morris (88' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fort (86'), Cam Rayner (88' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards (12' ×2), Marcus Bontempelli (31' ×2), Lachlan Bramble (43'), Sam Darcy (50' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Connor Budarick (61'), Aaron Naughton (91' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Williams (96'), Tim English (65' ×2), Rhylee West (69' Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 66% | Won |
| Brisbane Lions | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Opening Round 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 02:20 pm_

Brisbane Lions 106–111 Western Bulldogs in AFL Opening Round at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Western Bulldogs were 13 points down at the last change and still won by five. That gap between where the game sat at three-quarter time and where it finished tells you everything about how this one turned. Brisbane Lions led 81-68 heading into the final term. From there the Bulldogs piled on 43 points to Brisbane's 25 and snatched it, 111-106.

Work back through the quarters and Brisbane controlled almost all of it. The first term was locked at 19-19. Brisbane then took the second 24-21 and blew the third open, 38-28, to build what looked like a safe buffer. It wasn't. The last quarter belonged entirely to the Bulldogs, and it was enough.

The disposal numbers explain why Brisbane were in front for three quarters. They finished with 408 disposals to 361, won the contested ball 133 to 116, clearances 45 to 39, and got inside 50 an extra thirteen times, 63 to 50. Marks were even more lopsided: 115 to 78. On raw volume, this was Brisbane's game from start to finish.

But volume didn't hold up where it mattered. Marks inside 50 were dead level at 10 apiece, so all that extra territory wasn't landing the ball in dangerous hands any more often than the Bulldogs managed with fewer entries. Disposal efficiency actually favoured Western Bulldogs, 73.4% to 72.5%. Small number, but the kind of edge that shows up when a game gets scrappy in the last quarter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 19 | 24 | 38 | 25 | 106 |
| Western Bulldogs | 19 | 21 | 28 | 43 | 111 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **408** | Disposals | 361 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **45** | Clearances | 39 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **115** | Marks | 78 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 51 | Tackles | **60** |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **46** |
| 63 | Intercepts | 63 |
| 72.5% | Disposal eff. | **73.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 8.5 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. Western Bulldogs trailed 43–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 106–111. The model went 3/4 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 16.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $2.90 (edge +31.7%) — model probability 66.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +16.5 @ $1.92 (edge +31.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $1.92 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 9 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Brisbane Lions | 86 – 76 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R5 | Western Bulldogs | 97 – 118 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R13 | Western Bulldogs | 71 – 114 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R3 | Western Bulldogs | 67 – 53 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2022 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 108 – 67 | Western Bulldogs |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | no games | 17/10g (1·3·2·0·2·2·3·1·2·1) | 8/8g | 77/82g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | no games | 12/10g (1·0·0·0·3·2·1·0·1·4) | 21/14g | 169/91g | 72% | — | 🏉 4' 41' 47' 94' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 6/21g | 20% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 10/91g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/38g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 17/21g | 130/153g | 10% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 4/117g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | no games | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·4) | 9/13g | 68/103g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | no games | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/13g | 44/92g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 12/32g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/41g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | no games | 16/10g (0·2·1·1·2·2·2·3·1·2) | 3/2g | 27/25g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 79' |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/32g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 8/16g | 38/80g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 5/12g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | no games | 20/10g (1·0·6·3·4·1·1·2·1·1) | 6/3g | 33/19g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' 90' 74' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | no games | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·2·4·0·0) | 8/5g | 9/9g | 66% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 23/112g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | no games | 4/6g (0·0·0·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | no games | 8/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 3/3g | 12/27g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | no games | 17/10g (1·1·2·2·2·0·1·3·2·3) | 11/10g | 79/82g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Zane Zakostelsky | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | no games | 38/10g (1·3·5·5·2·7·5·5·3·2) | 17/10g | 9/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 91' 91' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | no games | 13/10g (0·1·2·1·3·2·1·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | no games | 4/8g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | no games | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·0·2·1·2·2·0) | 3/7g | 1/4g | 58% | — | 🏉 12' 73' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | no games | 10/10g (0·4·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | no games | 4/2g (2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lachie Jaques | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | no games | 13/10g (3·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·2·2) | 19/16g | 7/8g | 66% | — | 🏉 31' 83' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 4/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | no games | 19/10g (2·1·1·1·4·3·1·1·3·2) | 8/4g | 6/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | no games | 31/10g (5·3·4·2·1·6·5·2·3·0) | 3/2g | 1/1g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 95' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | no games | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·3·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 55% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | no games | 7/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 65' 94' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 4/8g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 28.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 39 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 27.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 4 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.94 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 22.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.83 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.96 | 49% | 21 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $2.00 | 43% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 18 ✗ |
| Harris Andrews | 15.5 | $1.75 | 57% | 18 ✗ |
| Cam Rayner | 14.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 16 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 25.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 19 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.93 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Tom Liberatore | 23.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 28 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 23.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 21.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 20 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 17.5 | $1.78 | 42% | 25 ✗ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 17.5 | $1.77 | 43% | 16 ✓ |
| Tim English | 17.5 | $1.78 | 53% | 16 ✓ |
| Connor Budarick ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 27 ✗ |
| Oskar Baker | 15.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Darcy | 13.5 | $1.75 | 57% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-11 03:20 UTC (latest tip update)