# Geelong Cats v Carlton — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 107 – 74 Carlton

_Geelong Cats surge back to toy with Carlton._

Half time: 34 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 53% / Carlton 47% · MCG · Fri, 04 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Patrick Dangerfield (25' ×5), Gryan Miers (46' ×2), Brad Close (48'), Max Holmes (59'), Shaun Mannagh (63'), Oliver Henry (77' Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (89' Tipped ⚡), Jay Polkinghorne (92' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (34m 14s)Shannon Neale (64') · Carlton: Francis Evans (10' ×2 1st), Matthew Cottrell (16'), Patrick Cripps (27'), Cooper Lord (29' ×2), Oliver Hollands (44'), Brodie Kemp (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry McKay (71' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (92' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 53% | Won |
| Carlton | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 33 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:39 pm · Last updated: 4 Sept 2026, 10:26 pm_

Geelong Cats 107–74 Carlton in AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats defeated Carlton 107–74 at the MCG, showcasing contrasting styles. Carlton aimed for control and clearances, while Geelong focused on raw metres and intercepts. This strategy helped Geelong overturn a half-time deficit and dominate the second half.

Carlton started strong, leading 27–11 at quarter time. They controlled the clearances, winning 44 to Geelong’s 37, thanks to their midfield efforts. Despite Geelong's higher midfield rating of 1489 against Carlton's 1245, the Cats trailed by three points at half-time, 34–37.

After the break, Geelong shifted gears. Down 34-37 at half-time, they capitalised on their superior forward and ruck setups. They marked inside 50 on 17 occasions compared to Carlton's 10, highlighting their clinical edge in attack. By three-quarter time, Geelong led 73-50, converting opportunities into points.

Geelong's ruck division was crucial, winning 47 hit-outs to Carlton’s 37. This foundation allowed them to dominate the inside 50 count, 56 to Carlton's 45. Consistent forward pressure eventually wore down Carlton's defence.

Defensively, Geelong excelled with 71 intercepts to Carlton's 46. This defensive strength kept Carlton’s attack in check and neutralised their clearance advantage. Intercepts enabled Geelong to transition swiftly from defence to attack, showcasing their tactical agility.

Geelong's win marked their sixth consecutive victory, with an average winning margin of 36.8 points. Carlton, despite the loss, had been in good form, winning four of their last five. However, their inability to turn midfield dominance into scoreboard pressure was evident.

Alphr’s model had Geelong as slight favourites with a 53% probability of winning, predicting a narrow victory by 2.5 points. The actual 33-point margin highlighted Geelong's ability to step up in crucial second-half spells. While the predicted margin was off, the pre-match expectation correctly identified the contest as closely poised.

Ultimately, Geelong's ambitious and proactive approach outshone Carlton's methodical control. Their victory at the MCG came not just from a statistical edge but from a strategic one, turning speed and agility into a winning formula.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 11 | 23 | 39 | 34 | 107 |
| Carlton | 27 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **356** | Disposals | 355 |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| 37 | Clearances | **44** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **78** | Marks | 69 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 55 | Tackles | **64** |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| **71** | Intercepts | 46 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 33 points. Geelong Cats trailed 34–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 107–74. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.57 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 3 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model gives Geelong Cats 53% here, Carlton 47%. That's about as close as a call gets without the model just shrugging and walking off. Worth saying up front: this is a lean, not a lock.

The ELO gap backs that up, just 18 points separating them, 1777 to 1759. Geelong Cats gets there on the back of five factors out of seven: Recent Form, Ruck, Forward Line, Weather and the ELO Rating itself. Carlton's got Lineup Strength and Venue in its corner, which isn't nothing at the MCG, but it's not enough to flip the ledger.

Look at the engine room and it's not close. Geelong Cats' midfield sits at 1489 against Carlton's 1245, and the ruck gap is bigger still, 1294 to 1020. Forwards are tighter, 1159 to 1130. The one spot where Carlton actually leads on the raw numbers is defence, 1268 to Geelong's 1182, which is a bit of a riddle given Geelong's the one putting bigger scores on the board.

Form has both sides ticking along nicely, but Geelong's the tidier of the two. Five wins from five, Carlton four from five with a draw mixed in there, WWWWW against WWDWW. Geelong's averaging 117.8 a game and leaking 81, Carlton scoring 107 and conceding 71.8, so Carlton's actually the stingier side on raw defence, matching that positional rating. Where Geelong pulls it back is around the ball: 61.8 tackles a game to Carlton's 50.4, and 42.8 clearances to 39.8, even though Carlton's shifting more the footy overall, 424.2 disposals to Geelong's 369.6. Inside 50s are dead level at 50 apiece.

No head-to-head record or venue history was on the sheet for this one, so we'll leave that alone. This is finals footy though, a Qualifying and Elimination Final at the MCG, and that alone should tell you neither side's turning up to make up the numbers.

Nothing on team news, captains or milestones this time round either, so it's the numbers doing the talking. The model's settled on Geelong Cats by 2.5, with the total sitting around 168 combined.

On the market, Geelong Cats is $1.57 for the win, but the model reckons that's overs, marking an edge of minus 10.3%. The line has more appeal: Carlton at plus 9.5 is paying $1.90, and the model likes that number, an edge of plus 7.0%. The margin price on Geelong Cats at $3.30 lines up almost exactly with the model's own number, no edge either way. The total's leaning under 168.5 at $1.90, a modest plus 2.4% edge.

So the win's basically a coin flip with a slight lean to Geelong Cats, on the strength of their midfield and ruck dominance and the shape their last five wins have taken. For Carlton to get there, that defensive rating needs to hold up under it, and the extra ball movement needs to actually turn into scoreboard pressure rather than just more disposals for the highlights package. The model's happy to back Geelong Cats to get home, but only just, and it likes the number on the line a good deal more than the number on the head-to-head.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 117.8pts | Avg Score | 107.0pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 71.8pts |
| 36.8pts | Avg Margin | 35.2pts |
| 369.6 | Disposals | 424.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 61.8 | Tackles | 50.4 |
| 42.8 | Clearances | 39.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W | 117.8 |
| Carlton | R21 W · R22 W · R23 D · R24 W · WF W | 107.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 250 · 206 | 213 · 194 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.9/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 72 · 56 | 74 · 79 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.1/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 15 | 12 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 77.7% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.52) +27% · Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.05) +18% · Forwards 4.62/g (lg 4.5) +3%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.9) +2% · Forwards 4.32/g (lg 4.5) -4% · Rucks 0.46/g (lg 0.52) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 47 in 23g | 24/10g (2·2·3·0·1·5·2·3·2·4) | 0/2g | 24/16g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 42 in 22g | 21/10g (2·2·0·1·2·4·3·4·1·2) | 13/8g | 64/35g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 39 in 17g | 16/10g (1·3·3·4·0·3·2·0·0·0) | 47/14g | 133/49g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 35 in 23g | 14/10g (0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1·3·3) | 1/2g | 21/15g | 72% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 30 in 23g | 17/10g (2·0·2·3·2·0·2·4·1·1) | 5/4g | 28/21g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 23 in 17g | 14/10g (1·1·1·0·5·0·1·0·2·3) | 13/16g | 61/70g | 72% | — | 🏉 25' 73' 69' 71' 75' |
| – | Jay Polkinghorne | KF | 13 in 6g | 13/6g (2·2·3·1·3·2) | 0/0g | 5/2g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 13 in 14g | 11/10g (0·3·2·1·1·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/5g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 11 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 4/7g | 9/22g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 10 in 16g | 7/10g (2·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 28/38g | 54% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 10/45g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 4/15g | 26/84g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 25/42g | 34% | — | 🏉 46' 81' |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/44g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 20/35g | 26% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 5/49g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/57g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/43g | 2% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 37 in 24g | 15/10g (0·2·0·1·0·5·2·1·3·1) | 2/3g | 13/28g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' 83' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 34 in 22g | 17/10g (1·3·1·0·0·3·3·2·2·2) | 16/11g | 108/57g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 34 in 24g | 13/10g (2·1·2·2·2·1·2·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 46/52g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 29 in 24g | 15/10g (1·1·1·2·1·1·2·0·3·3) | 2/8g | 16/14g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 22 in 22g | 14/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·1·2·5·0) | 0/4g | 9/18g | 58% | — | 🏉 10' 73' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 15 in 24g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/12g | 45/98g | 50% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 15 in 19g | 10/10g (3·0·1·0·3·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/8g | 48% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 13 in 20g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 20/57g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 10 in 24g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 10 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/39g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 16/56g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/34g | 42% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 16/44g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/12g | 16/46g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 6/31g | 18% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 19% | — | 🏉 29' 89' |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/28g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/30g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 7/81g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/26g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.93 | 75% | 27 ✓ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 16 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 14 ✓ |
| Thomas Stewart | 20.5 | $1.93 | — | 20 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 79% | 24 ✗ |
| Ollie Dempsey | 19.5 | $1.91 | — | 23 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.89 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 15.5 | $1.84 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Matt Cottrell | 15.5 | $1.91 | — | 9 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 16 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 9 ✓ |
| Connor O'Sullivan | 14.5 | $1.74 | 65% | 7 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 28.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 29 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith | 25.5 | $1.93 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 24 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 24.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 21.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.93 | 47% | 14 ✓ |
| Cooper Lord | 18.5 | $1.98 | 42% | 19 ✗ |
| Billy Wilson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 19 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 16.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 19 ✗ |
| Jacob Weitering | 14.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Marc Pittonet ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.86 | 69% | 13 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan | 14.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 16 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Geelong Cats 1777 · Carlton 1759 · ELO difference: 18 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Geelong Cats | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1489 (best 1489) | 1245 (best 1330) | Geelong Cats +244 |
| Forwards | 1159 (best 1410) | 1130 (best 1304) | Geelong Cats +30 |
| Defence | 1182 (best 1296) | 1268 (best 1380) | Carlton +86 |
| Ruck | 1294 (best 1302) | 1020 (best 1020) | Geelong Cats +274 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lineup Strength | 21.5% | Carlton |
| 2 | Venue | 17.5% | Carlton |
| 3 | Recent Form | 12.4% | Geelong Cats |
| 4 | Ruck | 10.8% | Carlton |
| 5 | Forward Line | 8.7% | Geelong Cats |
| 6 | Weather | 6.9% | Geelong Cats |
| 7 | ELO Rating | 5.0% | Geelong Cats |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Geelong Cats predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-04 12:26 UTC (latest tip update)