# Fremantle v Hawthorn — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 40 – 72 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off Fremantle._

Half time: 10 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 67% / Hawthorn 33% · Optus Stadium · Thu, 03 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw (73'), Sam Switkowski (80'), Josh Treacy (75' Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: Nick Watson (6' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Moore (17' ×2), Mabior Chol (20' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Ginnivan (60'), Mitch Lewis (75'), Harry Morrison (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 67% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.4 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 Sept 2026, 09:19 pm · Last updated: 3 Sept 2026, 10:42 pm_

Fremantle 40–72 Hawthorn in AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle's focus on ball control was evident as they amassed 402 disposals to Hawthorn's 328 at Optus Stadium. Yet, it was Hawthorn's ambition and efficiency that delivered them a decisive 72–40 victory. While Fremantle's disposal count suggested dominance, it was Hawthorn's ability to convert key moments into points that made all the difference.

Despite holding the ball more, Fremantle struggled to translate possession into scoreboard pressure. They went inside 50 a total of 57 times, bettering Hawthorn's 51, but couldn't make it count where it mattered most. In contrast, Hawthorn's efficiency was showcased with 11 marks inside 50, surpassing Fremantle's 9. The Hawks simply capitalised on opportunities better when it counted.

From the outset, Hawthorn asserted themselves. Leading 28–9 after the first quarter and extending the gap to 43–10 by half-time, their lead was undeniable. By three-quarter time, the Hawks had stretched it to 64–31. Fremantle's attempts to bridge the gap were largely ineffective, as the Hawks continued to press with consistency on both ends of the pitch.

Hawthorn showed particular strength in their forward line, rated at 1233 compared to Fremantle's 1102. This translated into a more threatening forward presence, one capable of making the most of fewer opportunities. Their ability to intercept, with 83 compared to Fremantle's 76, and their tackling edge, 57 to 48, indicated a more aggressive approach that kept Fremantle on the back foot.

Fremantle's midfield, while industrious, couldn't overcome Hawthorn's rated strength of 1176 compared to their 1100. Despite winning more ball overall, their midfield play failed to break through a well-organised Hawthorn defence, ranked 1189 to Fremantle's 1140. This defensive solidity from Hawthorn turned Fremantle's possession game into a largely fruitless exercise.

The ruck battle was another area of contention, with Fremantle's 1178 just falling short against Hawthorn's 1280. The contest remained tight in this department, reflected in the close hit-out count of 31 to 30 in Fremantle's favour. Yet, as with other areas of the game, Hawthorn's marginal advantages compounded and translated into their scoreboard success.

Leading into the match, Alphr's model had Fremantle as favourites with a 67% chance of winning and predicted a 16.4-point victory for them. Instead, Hawthorn flipped the script, winning by 32 points. The model also anticipated a combined total of 168 points; the actual match total of 112 was well short of expectations. It was a day for surprises, with Hawthorn defying the pre-match analysis across all four model picks.

Ultimately, Fremantle's high-disposal strategy did not pay off against Hawthorn's more direct and ambitious game plan. Hawthorn's ability to convert opportunities efficiently left Fremantle's possession football looking a bit toothless. In the end, it was Hawthorn's pragmatism that reigned supreme, delivering a well-deserved win on enemy turf.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 9 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 40 |
| Hawthorn | 28 | 15 | 21 | 8 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **402** | Disposals | 328 |
| **140** | Contested poss. | 139 |
| 31 | Clearances | **32** |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 51 |
| **106** | Marks | 77 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| 48 | Tackles | **57** |
| **31** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 76 | Intercepts | **83** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 67% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 112 points came in 56 points lower than the predicted 168. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 66.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Fremantle here: 67% to see off Hawthorn. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 141 ELO points clear, 1754 to 1613.

On paper Hawthorn shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Recent Form, Lineup Strength and Stat Profile. The model still sides with Fremantle, which says ELO Rating and Weather carry the most weight. The margin model has Fremantle by 16.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. Fremantle to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 98.6pts | Avg Score | 97.6pts |
| 80.6pts | Avg Conceded | 76.8pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | 20.8pts |
| 358.8 | Disposals | 394.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.8 | Tackles | 53.8 |
| 37.8 | Clearances | 34.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L | 98.6 |
| Hawthorn | R20 W · R21 W · R22 L · R23 D · R24 W | 97.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Fremantle lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Fremantle | 88 – 73 | Hawthorn | Fremantle 56% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Fremantle | 77 – 64 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2024 | R18 | Hawthorn | 87 – 74 | Fremantle | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Hawthorn | 56 – 93 | Fremantle | not priced |
| 2023 | R8 | Fremantle | 117 – 48 | Hawthorn | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 231 · 174 | 255 · 196 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 88/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 95 · 52 | 47 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.5/g | 21.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.2% | 71.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 25 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.1/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.9% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.49) -5% · Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.49) -8% · Key Forwards 3.46/g (lg 3.91) -12%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.49) -6% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.49) -13% · Key Forwards 3.36/g (lg 3.91) -14%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 58 in 22g | 28/10g (2·3·1·1·2·4·5·0·5·5) | 12/5g | 91/51g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 54 in 23g | 22/10g (2·0·3·4·3·1·3·2·1·3) | 9/7g | 92/55g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 41 in 22g | 17/10g (2·2·2·2·1·1·1·4·0·2) | 3/3g | 39/28g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 28 in 23g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·3·1) | 1/2g | 25/22g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 24 in 23g | 12/10g (3·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 50/54g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 60% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 23 in 18g | 13/10g (0·4·0·2·3·1·0·0·2·1) | 9/7g | 80/67g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 21 in 22g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·1) | 13/11g | 45/35g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 12 in 21g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 20/25g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/8g | 42/66g | 40% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 1/9g | 32/78g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 15/51g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 7 in 23g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/11g | 35/101g | 28% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 7 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/36g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/42g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 15/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 10/65g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/50g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/73g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Walker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/102g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 59 in 17g | 35/10g (6·5·1·3·1·7·2·3·2·5) | 25/13g | 25/10g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 37' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 55 in 21g | 27/10g (2·3·3·3·5·3·5·0·0·3) | 5/3g | 8/4g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 82' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 34 in 22g | 14/10g (0·1·2·1·1·5·0·0·2·2) | 7/4g | 6/4g | 78% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 29 in 18g | 16/10g (2·2·5·1·1·2·2·0·1·0) | 6/5g | 6/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 21 in 22g | 10/10g (4·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 9/8g | 9/7g | 64% | — | 🏉 17' 42' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 19 in 22g | 9/10g (0·1·2·2·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 5/5g | 64% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 23g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 4/5g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 4/7g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 23g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 2/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 6 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/9g | 26% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/13g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Max Beattie | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/67g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.77 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 30 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 21.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 38 ✗ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Cameron Mackenzie | 18.5 | $1.95 | — | 20 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 18.5 | $1.89 | 44% | 23 ✗ |
| Connor MacDonald | 17.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 17 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.83 | 39% | 22 ✗ |
| Matt Johnson | 16.5 | $1.94 | — | 14 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 15.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 24 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 14.5 | $1.85 | 46% | 18 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 22.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 11 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 10 ✓ |
| Will Day | 20.5 | $1.93 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick | 17.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 13 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.89 | 45% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 17.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 16.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Harry Morrison | 16.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Watson | 11.5 | $1.85 | 44% | 19 ✗ |
| Lloyd Meek | 11.5 | $1.91 | 39% | 8 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1754 · Hawthorn 1613 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1100 (best 1100) | 1176 (best 1211) | Hawthorn +76 |
| Forwards | 1102 (best 1265) | 1233 (best 1450) | Hawthorn +130 |
| Defence | 1140 (best 1247) | 1189 (best 1294) | Hawthorn +49 |
| Ruck | 1178 (best 1355) | 1280 (best 1280) | Hawthorn +103 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 25.8% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Recent Form | 17.8% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Lineup Strength | 13.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Stat Profile | 11.6% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Weather | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Midfield | 6.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Defence | 5.8% | Hawthorn |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-03 12:42 UTC (latest tip update)