# Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 90 – 68 Western Bulldogs

_Adelaide Crows peck holes in Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 44 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 69% / Western Bulldogs 31% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Ben Keays (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Brayden Cook (25' ×2), Callum Ah Chee (54'), Josh Rachele (56' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (74' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (77' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (85' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards (10' ×2 1st), Joel Freijah (38'), Arthur Jones (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Naughton (42' Tipped ⚡), Will Lewis (64' ×2), Ryley Sanders (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 69% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.0 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Sept 2026, 07:39 pm · Last updated: 5 Sept 2026, 10:14 pm_

Adelaide Crows 90–68 Western Bulldogs in AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows defeated the Western Bulldogs 90 to 68 at Adelaide Oval. While the scoreline suggests a comfortable win, the numbers reveal a more nuanced story. Adelaide dominated disposals, racking up 404 to the Bulldogs' 317. This control was crucial, though the Bulldogs held their own in contested possessions, edging out the Crows 146 to 142.

The ruck battle was pivotal. Adelaide's ruckmen outperformed, winning 47 hit-outs to the Bulldogs' 23. Despite this, the Bulldogs led in clearances, 41 to 34, but failed to convert these into significant scoreboard pressure. They had more inside 50s, 61 to Adelaide's 49, yet couldn't capitalise effectively.

Adelaide's efficiency in the forward line was evident. They secured 13 marks inside 50 compared to the Bulldogs' 9, highlighting their sharper execution. When Adelaide went forward, they made it count. The Bulldogs had more opportunities to attack, but Adelaide's quality in execution made the difference.

Adelaide's forward line, rated at 1292 compared to the Bulldogs' 1125, lived up to expectations. Despite the Bulldogs' defence being rated slightly higher, they couldn't withstand Adelaide's efficient forward entries. Adelaide's clean play was a standout, reflecting their average of over 105 points in recent games.

For the Bulldogs, this result continues an inconsistent run. With only two wins from their last five games, converting inside 50s into scores remains a challenge, as shown by their average score of 80.8 points. Their midfield's clearance advantage wasn't enough to turn the tide.

Alphr's model predicted a 21-point margin, close to the actual 22-point difference, demonstrating its accuracy. The anticipated high-scoring game didn't fully materialise, with the combined total at 158, slightly below the projected 170.

The Bulldogs showed moments of promise but couldn't maintain control. At half-time, the game was still open with a 44 to 38 scoreline. By three-quarter time, Adelaide had extended their lead to 59 to 40, a gap the Bulldogs couldn't bridge. In the final term, Adelaide held firm and increased their lead, displaying maturity and composure.

Adelaide's win, built on efficiency and control, underscores their strength. Their steady accumulation of disposals and decisive forward entries secured the victory. It wasn't an easy win, but ultimately, a clear triumph for the Crows.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 19 | 25 | 15 | 31 | 90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 13 | 25 | 2 | 28 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 317 |
| 142 | Contested poss. | **146** |
| 34 | Clearances | **41** |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| **114** | Marks | 62 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **57** | Tackles | 56 |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| 75 | Intercepts | **79** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 21.0 vs the actual margin of 22 points. Adelaide Crows led 44–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 3/4 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 16.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 21 · Predicted total: 170

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model's call is Adelaide Crows at 69% to take down the Western Bulldogs. The ELO ratings gap is the big driver: Adelaide sits 119 points ahead, 1679 to 1561. That's a fair buffer.

Adelaide Crows have the recent form edge too, winning three of their last five. Western Bulldogs trail with just two wins. Adelaide's average score is a healthy 105.4 points compared to the Bulldogs' 80.8. Not a small gap.

In terms of positional strength, Adelaide's forward line is a standout: 1292 to the Bulldogs' 1125. They're also ahead in midfield. Western Bulldogs have the ruck advantage, rated at 1433 against Adelaide's 1230. But it's not enough to sway the model.

History isn't on the Bulldogs' side either. Adelaide's recent form and home advantage at Adelaide Oval are tipping the scales. The last five games show Adelaide with a positive average margin of 15.8 points, while the Bulldogs sit at -7.2.

This match is more than just numbers, though. It's a qualifying final, and the stakes are high. Adelaide Crows are looking to capitalise on their form and ratings advantage. Western Bulldogs will need to defy the odds.

On the personnel front, no milestone players or significant rest day advantages are noted. It's a straight shot at finals glory. The referee's numbers aren't in play here, so it's all about the teams on the field.

The predicted margin is Adelaide by 21.0 points, with a combined total of 170. The market has Adelaide at $1.40, and the model sees a slight edge in the margin bet at a line of -16.5. 

For the Bulldogs to upset, they'll need their ruck dominance to turn into clearances and scores. But with Adelaide's form and forward strength, it's a tough ask. The model backs Adelaide to deliver.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 105.4pts | Avg Score | 80.8pts |
| 89.6pts | Avg Conceded | 88.0pts |
| 15.8pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 358.0 | Disposals | 365.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 64.2 | Tackles | 55.2 |
| 41.4 | Clearances | 36.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 L · R24 W | 105.4 |
| Western Bulldogs | R21 L · R22 L · R23 D · R24 W · WF W | 80.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Western Bulldogs | 64 – 121 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2026 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 88 – 94 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R18 | Western Bulldogs | 98 – 109 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R22 | Adelaide Crows | 111 – 72 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 85 – 40 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 219 · 189 | 172 · 202 |
| Goal Assists | 6.1/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.8/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 91 · 59 | 88 · 76 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.6/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 71.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 16 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.4/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.52) +8% · Key Forwards 3.97/g (lg 3.91) +2% · Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.47) +1%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.06/g (lg 1.04) +2% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.5) -3% · Midfielders 2.18/g (lg 2.47) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 38 in 23g | 16/10g (3·1·1·3·1·1·2·0·2·2) | 10/5g | 80/53g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' 93' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 34 in 20g | 20/10g (3·1·1·0·2·3·5·0·2·3) | 13/4g | 80/57g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 32 in 16g | 21/10g (0·2·1·0·0·5·3·2·2·6) | 29/13g | 318/142g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 30 in 23g | 14/10g (1·1·3·2·0·1·3·0·0·3) | 6/9g | 85/89g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 69' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 30 in 14g | 24/10g (1·0·1·2·5·4·2·4·2·3) | 13/8g | 132/80g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 85' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 23 in 20g | 12/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1·1·4) | 7/8g | 80/48g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' 90' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 22 in 20g | 7/10g (2·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 11/9g | 44/67g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 12 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 22/40g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 10 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 11/28g | 38% | — | 🏉 25' 48' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 26/60g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 8 in 7g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·2·1) | 6/10g | 10/9g | 64% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 9/31g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/12g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 9/29g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 9/56g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 19/80g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/16g | 18/149g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/44g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/52g | 4% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 50 in 23g | 20/10g (2·2·1·5·1·1·2·0·2·4) | 21/9g | 19/12g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 31 in 23g | 12/10g (0·1·0·2·3·2·0·1·2·1) | 12/14g | 17/17g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 25 in 19g | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·3·4) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' 58' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 20 in 23g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 4/9g | 5/13g | 68% | — | 🏉 10' 69' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 18 in 23g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 6/6g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 12 in 22g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 11 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 4/3g | 6/4g | 38% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 4/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cody Weightman | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 3/5g | 10/6g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 6/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 5 in 21g | 5/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 7/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 2/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Kennedy | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Gardner | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Will Lewis | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 64' 66' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.92 | 45% | 28 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.93 | 37% | 22 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 23.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 20.5 | $1.91 | 45% | 20 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | 18.5 | $1.93 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 17.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 34 ✗ |
| Daniel Curtin | 16.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 15 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo | 16.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 20 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook | 15.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 17 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 15.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 18 ✗ |
| Timothy English | 15.5 | $1.85 | — | 10 ✓ |
| Luke Nankervis | 14.5 | $1.89 | 32% | 18 ✗ |
| Mark Keane | 14.5 | $1.90 | 36% | 22 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 27 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 24.5 | $1.80 | 51% | 17 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 10 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 77% | 24 ✗ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 16.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 6 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 16.5 | $1.86 | 44% | 26 ✗ |
| Rhylee West ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.81 | 82% | 21 ✗ |
| Cooper Hynes ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 20 ✗ |
| Sam Davidson | 14.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 10 ✓ |
| Connor Budarick | 12.5 | $1.83 | 41% | 10 ✓ |
| Aaron Naughton | 11.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 16 ✗ |
| Cody Weightman | 11.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 7 ✓ |
| Arthur Jones ⚡ Under | 11.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 5 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1679 · Western Bulldogs 1561 · ELO difference: 119 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | Western Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1175 (best 1302) | 1166 (best 1166) | Adelaide Crows +10 |
| Forwards | 1292 (best 1525) | 1125 (best 1397) | Adelaide Crows +168 |
| Defence | 1156 (best 1253) | 1172 (best 1363) | Western Bulldogs +15 |
| Ruck | 1230 (best 1230) | 1433 (best 1433) | Western Bulldogs +202 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 30.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 20.3% | Western Bulldogs |
| 3 | Recent Form | 14.6% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Venue | 8.4% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Forward Line | 7.6% | Western Bulldogs |
| 6 | Weather | 6.9% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Ruck | 3.8% | Western Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 170 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-05 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)