# Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions — AFL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 122 – 131 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions hit back to run down Hawthorn._

Half time: 67 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 52% / Brisbane Lions 48% · MCG · Sat, 19 Sept, 05:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Nick Watson (6' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (12' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (27' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (54'), Dylan Moore (72'), Mabior Chol (79' Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (3' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Levi Ashcroft (10'), Will Ashcroft (22'), Eric Hipwood (23' ×3), Conor McKenna (29'), Kai Lohmann (60' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jarrod Berry (74'), Hugh McCluggage (82' ×3), Logan Morris (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 52% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Preliminary Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Sept 2026, 09:42 pm · Last updated: 19 Sept 2026, 08:05 pm_

Hawthorn 122–131 Brisbane Lions in AFL Preliminary Finals at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn showed fight and led by 14 at half-time but ultimately fell short 131–122 to the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. Their tackling pressure looked promising early, and they laid 52 tackles to Brisbane's 48. That effort, plus a slight edge in clearances, hinted at an upset. Yet they could not sustain the intensity once the Lions clicked into gear after the break.

The forward line created chances with 13 marks inside 50, yet Brisbane’s stronger-rated defence shut down most of them. After half-time Hawthorn’s attack lost penetration while the Lions recorded 19 marks inside 50 and converted their opportunities more cleanly. Those edges inside the forward 50 proved decisive in a contest that tightened as the game wore on.

In the midfield Hawthorn faced a clear step up. Brisbane entered with higher positional strength and used it. They racked up 327 disposals to Hawthorn’s 282 and won contested possessions 116 to 109. The extra touches and cleaner ball movement let them control the crucial stretches and slowly wrest the lead away.

Hawthorn’s lead evaporated in the third quarter. They had been averaging 85.6 points over the last five matches but managed to push to 122 in this game. Scoring was not their main problem. Brisbane, averaging 122.2 points recently, responded with real power and finished at 131 after overhauling the 14-point deficit.

The Lions held a slight edge in the ruck battle, 45 to 44 in hit-outs, which helped them maintain momentum when the game opened up. Their recent form had already shown four wins in five and a 34.4-point average margin. That pedigree surfaced in a high-pressure second half that rattled Hawthorn and turned the contest.

The pre-match expectation was different. Alphr’s model gave a narrow edge to Hawthorn, pegging them at 52% to win. A predicted margin of 2.1 seemed feasible against the actual 9-point result. The match total was expected at 177, but both sides blew past this, finishing with a combined 253. A tough read, with all 4 picks missed on this one.

In the end Brisbane’s victory came through greater composure under pressure and a ruthless second half. Hawthorn had their moments and led at the main break, but it was not enough against a Lions side with more firepower and endurance.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 31 | 36 | 10 | 45 | 122 |
| Brisbane Lions | 32 | 21 | 44 | 34 | 131 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Disposals | **327** |
| 109 | Contested poss. | **116** |
| 40 | Clearances | **41** |
| 55 | Inside 50s | **62** |
| 83 | Marks | **104** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| **52** | Tackles | 48 |
| 44 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| 56 | Intercepts | **59** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 52% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.1 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. The game's 253 points came in 76 points higher than the predicted 177. Brisbane Lions trailed 67–53 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 122–131. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.95 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 2 · Predicted total: 177

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions. The model can't split them, landing on Hawthorn at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Brisbane Lions sit 91 ELO points clear, 1780 to 1689, so the model is backing Hawthorn against the ratings gap. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Hawthorn.

On paper Brisbane Lions shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Line, Stat Profile and ELO Rating. The model still sides with Hawthorn, which says Weather and Venue carry the most weight. The margin model has Hawthorn by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 177. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 85.6pts | Avg Score | 122.2pts |
| 77.0pts | Avg Conceded | 87.8pts |
| 8.6pts | Avg Margin | 34.4pts |
| 354.8 | Disposals | 363.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 56.8 | Tackles | 49.2 |
| 35.6 | Clearances | 37.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R21 W · R22 L · R23 D · R24 W · QE W | 85.6 |
| Brisbane Lions | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · QE L · SF W | 122.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 125 – 58 | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions 58% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Brisbane Lions | 89 – 79 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Hawthorn | 60 – 93 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2024 | R11 | Hawthorn | 100 – 75 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Hawthorn | 98 – 73 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 264 · 199 | 303 · 243 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 20.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 68 | 84 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.1/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 68.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 12 | 13 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.5/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 81.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 4.01/g (lg 3.92) +2% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.49) -6% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.52) -8%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.49) -6% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.49) -8% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.92) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 61 in 18g | 31/10g (5·1·3·1·7·2·3·2·5·2) | 28/15g | 259/127g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 37' 47' 80' 87' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 57 in 22g | 27/10g (3·3·3·5·3·5·0·0·3·2) | 1/3g | 59/29g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 66' 78' 85' 90' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 35 in 23g | 15/10g (1·2·1·1·5·0·0·2·2·1) | 12/8g | 75/42g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 13' 44' 97' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 30 in 19g | 15/10g (2·5·1·1·2·2·0·1·0·1) | 13/9g | 53/41g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 23 in 23g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·2) | 10/7g | 62/63g | 64% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 20 in 23g | 10/10g (1·2·2·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/7g | 72/59g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 24g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/5g | 37/49g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 12/88g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 8/32g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 16/52g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 6 in 24g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/40g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 6 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/34g | 30% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 13/55g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 5 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 17/76g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 10/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/27g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 10/36g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Beattie | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 32/90g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/31g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 10/43g | 6% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 67 in 24g | 29/10g (3·2·1·3·0·4·4·8·2·2) | 9/4g | 28/11g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' 77' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 55 in 25g | 23/10g (2·2·2·3·2·3·2·2·0·5) | 28/16g | 51/33g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 39' 61' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 48 in 25g | 24/10g (5·3·4·3·2·5·0·0·0·2) | 9/4g | 14/10g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 84' 91' 94' 103' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 34 in 24g | 14/10g (3·2·1·3·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 4/10g | 24/21g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 27 in 25g | 10/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 18/11g | 22/23g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 23 in 19g | 11/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·0·4·1·1) | 2/6g | 10/31g | 42% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 23 in 13g | 19/10g (3·3·1·1·1·0·2·4·4·0) | 2/8g | 15/10g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 17 in 12g | 14/10g (0·2·1·1·0·2·1·3·2·2) | 21/10g | 35/22g | 72% | — | 🏉 23' 80' 89' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 16 in 24g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 17/26g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 16 in 25g | 9/10g (0·3·0·2·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 11/13g | 44% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 13 in 25g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 3/8g | 46% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 4/11g | 20/24g | 52% | — | 🏉 82' 95' 102' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 8 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/19g | 12/35g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 12/17g | 16/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 6/23g | 22% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 25g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 9/24g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/17g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/27g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 23.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 74% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 20.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey | 18.5 | $1.88 | 43% | 11 ✓ |
| Cameron Mackenzie | 18.5 | $1.91 | — | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 17.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 10 ✓ |
| Connor MacDonald | 17.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 11 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 16.5 | $1.94 | 57% | 13 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 16.5 | $1.92 | 52% | 17 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 15.5 | $1.90 | 42% | 14 ✓ |
| Cameron Rayner | 15.5 | $1.85 | — | 12 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 28.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 28 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 26.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 26 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 10 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 17.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 14 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 17.5 | $1.82 | 41% | 23 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester | 15.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Harris Andrews | 12.5 | $1.83 | 40% | 11 ✓ |
| Kai Lohmann | 12.5 | $1.82 | 45% | 11 ✓ |
| Conor McKenna | 12.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1780 vs 1689), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.95). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hawthorn 1689 · Brisbane Lions 1780 · ELO difference: 91 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1139 (best 1167) | 1230 (best 1267) | Brisbane Lions +91 |
| Forwards | 1156 (best 1395) | 1271 (best 1543) | Brisbane Lions +115 |
| Defence | 1126 (best 1227) | 1257 (best 1334) | Brisbane Lions +131 |
| Ruck | 1037 (best 1037) | 1021 (best 1041) | Hawthorn +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forward Line | 27.6% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Stat Profile | 21.5% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Weather | 10.2% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | ELO Rating | 8.7% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Venue | 7.6% | Hawthorn |
| 6 | Defence | 5.7% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Recent Form | 5.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 177 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-19 10:05 UTC (latest tip update)