# Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions — AFL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Prediction coming soon

Our AFL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 19 Sept, 05:15 pm AEST · MCG · Preliminary Finals

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 264 · 199 | 303 · 243 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 20.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 68 | 84 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.1/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 68.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 12 | 13 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.5/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 81.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 4.01/g (lg 3.92) +2% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.5) -6% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.52) -8%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.49) -6% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.5) -9% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.92) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-pf-hawthorn-v-brisbane-lions
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-17 04:15 UTC