# Fremantle v Brisbane Lions — AFL Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 89 – 96 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions survive a scare against Fremantle._

Half time: 43 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 45% / Brisbane Lions 55% · MCG · Sat, 26 Sept, 02:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (5' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (18' ×2), Murphy Reid (28'), Jye Amiss (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hayden Young (85' ×2), Michael Frederick (78') · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (3' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Oscar Allen (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (26' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Conor McKenna (35'), Levi Ashcroft (40'), Sam Draper (50'), Logan Morris (69' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 55% | Won |
| Fremantle | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Grand Final 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:27 pm · Last updated: 26 Sept 2026, 05:17 pm_

Fremantle 89–96 Brisbane Lions in AFL Grand Final at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-four points to seventeen. That's what Brisbane Lions did to Fremantle in the last quarter at the MCG, turning a ten-point deficit into a seven-point win, 96-89. Everything before that final term was building towards a Fremantle boilover. Everything after it belonged to the Lions.

The scoreboard tells the story of a game that flipped late rather than one that was ever truly out of reach. Quarter time had Brisbane up 23-22. Half time was locked at 43-43. Fremantle then put together their best stretch of the day, outscoring Brisbane 29-19 in the third term to lead 72-62 at the last change. Then the Lions found seventeen more points than Fremantle could manage in the shortest of windows and the result was gone.

Fremantle actually won most of the arm-wrestle stats that are supposed to matter. They had 45 clearances to 31, a number that lines up with the pre-match ruck read: Fremantle came in rated 1196 to Brisbane's 1011 in that department, and it showed, 51 hit-outs to 33. They pushed forward more often too, 62 inside 50s to 48, and were cleaner when they got there, 13 marks inside 50 to 10. On paper, that's the profile of a side that should have controlled the contest.

Brisbane won the game anyway, and the disposal count explains a fair bit of it. They finished with 358 to Fremantle's 308, and edged the marking count 84 to 77, control that let them manufacture the shift when it counted. Tackles were dead level at 70 apiece, so it wasn't a pressure story, it was a case of Brisbane doing more with the ball once they had it. Intercepts were close too, 65 to 63, but Brisbane's came at the right time.

That matches the pre-game read on personnel. Brisbane were rated stronger everywhere except the ruck: 1231 to 1197 in the midfield, 1184 to 1129 forward, 1197 to 1145 in defence. Their recent form backed it up, averaging 123.4 points a game against Fremantle's 87.4, with four wins from five compared to Fremantle's three. A side scoring at that clip was always going to find something when it mattered, and the last quarter is exactly when it showed up.

Fremantle's form line coming in had them at minus 3.8 average margin, and for three quarters they were playing well above that trend. The clearance and forward-entry work was genuinely strong, and for most of the afternoon it looked like enough. It just didn't hold up when Brisbane lifted.

Alphr's model had Brisbane Lions favourites at 55% and picked the margin at 8.2 points. The actual margin was 7. Not a bad piece of forecasting for a game that was tied at half time and led by the other side at the final change. The model finished 2 from 4 on this one, with the margin band call landing. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 22 | 21 | 29 | 17 | 89 |
| Brisbane Lions | 23 | 20 | 19 | 34 | 96 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Disposals | **358** |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 130 |
| **45** | Clearances | 31 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| 77 | Marks | **84** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 70 | Tackles | 70 |
| **51** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| 63 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 8.2 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.67 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -7.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 178

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Brisbane Lions are the call at 55%, but Fremantle stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 36 ELO points clear, 1804 to 1768. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Fremantle.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Rating, Forward Line and Stat Profile. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 178. Lean Brisbane Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 87.4pts | Avg Score | 123.4pts |
| 91.2pts | Avg Conceded | 100.6pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.8pts |
| 357.4 | Disposals | 350.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.8 | Tackles | 48.8 |
| 38.6 | Clearances | 38.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 3W–2L | 87.4 |
| Brisbane Lions | 4W–1L | 123.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Brisbane Lions | 78 – 103 | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions 52% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Fremantle | 44 – 101 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2024 | R1 | Fremantle | 93 – 70 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2023 | R21 | Fremantle | 74 – 77 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2023 | R7 | Brisbane Lions | 115 – 67 | Fremantle | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 250 · 206 | 317 · 260 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.6/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 111 · 55 | 90 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 4.6/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.1/g | 26.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73% | 68.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 13 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.4% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 4.09/g (lg 3.93) +4% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.5) -5% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.52) -8%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.5) -4% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.93) -13% · Midfielders 2.11/g (lg 2.49) -15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 62 in 25g | 26/10g (1·2·4·5·0·5·5·1·2·1) | 10/5g | 25/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 65' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 56 in 26g | 19/10g (4·3·1·3·2·1·3·1·1·0) | 10/5g | 20/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 46 in 25g | 16/10g (2·1·1·1·4·0·2·0·4·1) | 4/2g | 15/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 83' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 32 in 26g | 13/10g (0·1·1·1·2·3·1·0·2·2) | 1/1g | 4/3g | 76% | — | 🏉 18' 73' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 29 in 26g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·2) | 9/11g | 17/31g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 26 in 21g | 12/10g (2·3·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 6/6g | 8/10g | 64% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 25 in 25g | 12/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 7/11g | 94/73g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 13 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 4/13g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 12 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 50% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 10 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 4/10g | 40% | — | 🏉 85' 91' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 8 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 7/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 8 in 26g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 14/14g | 82/87g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/19g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/40g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/44g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 69 in 25g | 28/10g (2·1·3·0·4·4·8·2·2·2) | 5/2g | 30/12g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 89' 91' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 58 in 26g | 24/10g (2·2·3·2·3·2·2·0·5·3) | 32/15g | 54/34g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 84' 84' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 53 in 26g | 24/10g (3·4·3·2·5·0·0·0·2·5) | 0/2g | 19/11g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 78' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 34 in 25g | 11/10g (2·1·3·1·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 13/9g | 24/22g | 70% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 27 in 26g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/9g | 22/24g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 24 in 20g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1) | 2/9g | 11/32g | 44% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 23 in 14g | 16/10g (3·1·1·1·0·2·4·4·0·0) | 6/9g | 15/11g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 81' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 20 in 13g | 17/10g (2·1·1·0·2·1·3·2·2·3) | 12/10g | 38/23g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 17 in 26g | 10/10g (3·0·2·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/3g | 12/14g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 16 in 25g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 17/27g | 62% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 14 in 26g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 4/9g | 48% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·3) | 5/12g | 23/25g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 8 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 7/24g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 26g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/36g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/16g | 16/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 9/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/28g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 23.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 72% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 20.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 13 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Matt Johnson | 16.5 | $1.92 | — | 16 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 16.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 16.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 10 ✓ |
| Cameron Rayner | 14.5 | $1.87 | — | 18 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $1.92 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 21.5 | $2.00 | 55% | 21 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 16.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 20 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 16.5 | $1.92 | 43% | 20 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Conor McKenna | 12.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 10 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 11.5 | $1.92 | 39% | 11 ✓ |
| Kai Lohmann | 11.5 | $1.91 | 44% | 14 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1768 · Brisbane Lions 1804 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1197 (best 1197) | 1231 (best 1289) | Brisbane Lions +35 |
| Forwards | 1129 (best 1370) | 1184 (best 1429) | Brisbane Lions +55 |
| Defence | 1145 (best 1282) | 1197 (best 1296) | Brisbane Lions +52 |
| Ruck | 1196 (best 1391) | 1011 (best 1023) | Fremantle +184 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 16.4% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Weather | 15.4% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Forward Line | 14.8% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Stat Profile | 10.9% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Lineup Strength | 10.6% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Recent Form | 9.1% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue | 7.6% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 178 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 07:17 UTC (latest tip update)