# Fremantle v Brisbane Lions — AFL Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Fremantle v Brisbane Lions?

Alphr's AFL model rates Brisbane Lions a narrow 55% favourite over Fremantle in Grand Final — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Brisbane Lions by 8 in a low-scoring game (178 total, under the 180.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Brisbane Lions lead on ELO Rating, Forward Line and Stat Profile.

_Alphr AFL Model v1.0 · 81.9% head-to-head accuracy across 216 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 26 Sept, 02:30 pm AEST · MCG · Grand Final

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.67 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 54.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -7.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.7%)
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%)
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 178

### Match Preview

**Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Grand Final 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Sept 2026, 09:27 pm_

Fremantle meet Brisbane Lions in AFL Grand Final at MCG. The model makes Brisbane Lions the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Brisbane Lions at 55%, and the model's not shy about why: a 36-point ELO gap, 1804 to Fremantle's 1768. That's the heaviest single factor on the sheet, and it's built on genuine substance, not vibes.

Six of the seven factors line up for Brisbane Lions: ELO Rating, Forward Line, Stat Profile, Lineup Strength, Recent Form and Venue. Fremantle get one thing in their column, Weather, which is worth something on Grand Final day but isn't going to move a 36-point gap on its own.

The positional numbers back it in. Brisbane Lions hold the edge in Midfield, 1231 to 1197, Forwards, 1184 to 1129, and Defence, 1197 to 1145. Fremantle's one genuine advantage is in the ruck, and it's not small: 1196 to Brisbane Lions' 1011. If the game turns into a physical arm-wrestle around stoppages, that's where Fremantle have to make it count.

Form supports the favourite too. Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5, Fremantle 3. The scoring gap is the story here: Brisbane Lions averaging 123.4 points a game against 100.6 conceded, Fremantle scoring 87.4 and leaking 91.2. Average margin tells the same tale, Brisbane Lions at plus 22.8, Fremantle at minus 3.8.

It's not one-way traffic everywhere. Fremantle actually lead the disposal count, 357.4 to 350.4, and they've been the harder side at the contest, laying 60.8 tackles a game to Brisbane Lions' 48.8. Inside 50s are dead even at 50 apiece, and clearances are close, 38.6 to 38.8. So Fremantle can work their way into the contest. The problem is turning that pressure into scoreboard pressure, and lately they haven't.

The model's predicted margin is Brisbane Lions by 8.2, with a combined total around 178. That sits under the market's total line of 180.5 and inside the market's handicap line of minus 7.5 on Brisbane Lions.

On price, Brisbane Lions are $1.67 for the head to head, and the model reads that as short, an edge of minus 5.3% against its own number. The line bet, Brisbane Lions at minus 7.5 for $1.90, is the model's pick without a priced edge attached, same story with the margin play at $3.30 and the total, taking the Under 180.5 at $1.90. All three are the model's lean rather than a market mismatch it's flagging.

For Fremantle to get up, the pattern probably has to flip: more tackles turning into turnovers, the ruck edge feeding a scrappy, low-scoring arm-wrestle where Weather actually bites, and their defence holding a Brisbane Lions forward line that's rated well above them. It's asking a fair bit.

Brisbane Lions are the read, by 8.2, with the ratings, the form line and the venue all pointing the same way. Fremantle aren't dead in the water at 45%, but they need the ugly version of this game, not the pretty one.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 87.4pts | Avg Score | 123.4pts |
| 91.2pts | Avg Conceded | 100.6pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.8pts |
| 357.4 | Disposals | 350.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.8 | Tackles | 48.8 |
| 38.6 | Clearances | 38.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 3W–2L | 87.4 |
| Brisbane Lions | 4W–1L | 123.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 250 · 206 | 317 · 260 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.6/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 111 · 55 | 90 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 4.6/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.1/g | 26.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73% | 68.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 13 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.4% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 4.09/g (lg 3.93) +4% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.5) -5% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.52) -8%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.5) -4% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.93) -13% · Midfielders 2.11/g (lg 2.49) -15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 62 in 25g | 26/10g (1·2·4·5·0·5·5·1·2·1) | 10/5g | 25/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 91% Fair odds; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 56 in 26g | 19/10g (4·3·1·3·2·1·3·1·1·0) | 10/5g | 20/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 84% AI backs — priced short |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 46 in 25g | 16/10g (2·1·1·1·4·0·2·0·4·1) | 4/2g | 15/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% AI backs — priced short |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 32 in 26g | 13/10g (0·1·1·1·2·3·1·0·2·2) | 1/1g | 4/3g | 76% | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 29 in 26g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·2) | 9/11g | 17/31g | 74% | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 26 in 21g | 12/10g (2·3·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 6/6g | 8/10g | 64% | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 25 in 25g | 12/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 7/11g | 94/73g | 76% | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 13 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 4/13g | 40% | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 12 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 50% | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/12g | 32% | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 10 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 4/10g | 40% | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 8 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 7/17g | 28% | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 8 in 26g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 24% | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 14/14g | 82/87g | 36% | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/8g | 18% | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/19g | 8% | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 2% | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/40g | 4% | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/44g | 14% | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/13g | 8% | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/11g | 6% | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/17g | 0% | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 69 in 25g | 28/10g (2·1·3·0·4·4·8·2·2·2) | 5/2g | 30/12g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 89% Fair odds; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 58 in 26g | 24/10g (2·2·3·2·3·2·2·0·5·3) | 32/15g | 54/34g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 86% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 53 in 26g | 24/10g (3·4·3·2·5·0·0·0·2·5) | 0/2g | 19/11g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 83% AI backs — priced short |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 34 in 25g | 11/10g (2·1·3·1·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 13/9g | 24/22g | 70% | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 27 in 26g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/9g | 22/24g | 74% | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 24 in 20g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1) | 2/9g | 11/32g | 44% | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 23 in 14g | 16/10g (3·1·1·1·0·2·4·4·0·0) | 6/9g | 15/11g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 75% Fair odds |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 20 in 13g | 17/10g (2·1·1·0·2·1·3·2·2·3) | 12/10g | 38/23g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 77% Fair odds |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 17 in 26g | 10/10g (3·0·2·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/3g | 12/14g | 48% | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 16 in 25g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 17/27g | 62% | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 14 in 26g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 4/9g | 48% | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·3) | 5/12g | 23/25g | 54% | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 8 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/11g | 24% | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 7/24g | 26% | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 26g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/36g | 20% | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/16g | 16/29g | 14% | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 9/25g | 22% | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/15g | 12% | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/18g | 8% | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/23g | 6% | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 11% | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/22g | 10% | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/28g | 0% | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.95 | 60% | market |
| Caleb Serong | 23.5 | $1.95 | 60% | market |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 67% | value |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 72% | value |
| Jordan Clark | 20.5 | $1.94 | 53% | market |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 72% | value |
| Luke Ryan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 67% | value |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.92 | 60% | market |
| Matt Johnson | 16.5 | $1.92 | — | market |
| Luke Jackson | 16.5 | $1.92 | 53% | market |
| Neil Erasmus | 16.5 | $1.89 | 54% | market |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.87 | 59% | market |
| Heath Chapman ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 68% | value |
| Cameron Rayner | 14.5 | $1.87 | — | market |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 62% | value |
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $1.92 | 52% | market |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 67% | value |
| Josh Dunkley | 21.5 | $2.00 | 55% | market |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | value |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 70% | value |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.95 | 60% | market |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | market |
| Darcy Wilmot | 16.5 | $1.91 | 52% | market |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 16.5 | $1.92 | 43% | market |
| Ryan Lester ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.90 | 65% | value |
| Conor McKenna | 12.5 | $1.87 | 61% | market |
| Harris Andrews | 11.5 | $1.92 | 39% | market |
| Kai Lohmann | 11.5 | $1.91 | 44% | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1768 · Brisbane Lions 1804 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1197 (best 1197) | 1231 (best 1289) | Brisbane Lions +35 |
| Forwards | 1129 (best 1370) | 1184 (best 1429) | Brisbane Lions +55 |
| Defence | 1145 (best 1282) | 1197 (best 1296) | Brisbane Lions +52 |
| Ruck | 1196 (best 1391) | 1011 (best 1023) | Fremantle +184 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Rating | 16.4% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Weather | 15.4% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Forward Line | 14.8% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Stat Profile | 10.9% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Lineup Strength | 10.6% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Recent Form | 9.1% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue | 7.6% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 178 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Brisbane Lions win, around 93–85 (total ~178 — under the 180.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 180.5 line (model projects 178).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-24 11:27 UTC (latest tip update)