# Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 100 – 47 Gold Coast SUNS

_Brisbane Lions devour Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 60 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 75% / Gold Coast SUNS 25% · Gabba · Sat, 13 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (7' Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (12'), Jarrod Berry (18'), Will Ashcroft (40' ×2), Cam Rayner (42' Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (56' ×3), Zac Bailey (63' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ty Gallop (88') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Noah Anderson (4'), Matt Rowell (36'), Sam Flanders (46'), Ben Ainsworth (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 75% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 53 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 100–47 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions ran away from Gold Coast SUNS 100–47 at Gabba. Brisbane Lions led 82–39 at three-quarter time and held on.

Brisbane Lions controlled the midfield, winning 43 clearances to 25. Brisbane Lions racked up the footy, finishing with 374 disposals to 318. Brisbane Lions pressed forward more often, going inside 50 60 times to 49. Brisbane Lions were cleaner inside forward 50 with 12 marks to 9.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 23 | 37 | 22 | 18 | 100 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 22 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 47 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **374** | Disposals | 318 |
| **130** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| **43** | Clearances | 25 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **115** | Marks | 86 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **63** | Tackles | 56 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **48** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 60 |
| 71.0% | Disposal eff. | **72.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.1 but the actual margin was 53 points. The game's 147 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 163. Brisbane Lions led 60–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 53. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.60 (edge +12.1%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 9 · Predicted total: 163

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Brisbane Lions | 95 – 53 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | R13 | Gold Coast SUNS | 75 – 106 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 130 – 64 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 66 – 49 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 65 – 93 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 212 · 185 | 248 · 181 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.5/g | 19.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 71 · 69 | 53 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.3/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 25 | 27 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.3% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.34/g (lg 1.24) +8% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.39) +0% · Forwards 4.41/g (lg 4.44) -1%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.44) -1% · Midfielders 2.21/g (lg 2.39) -8% · Key Forwards 3.32/g (lg 3.63) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 49 in 23g | 24/10g (5·1·2·1·0·6·3·4·1·1) | 1/3g | 31/18g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 34 in 23g | 15/10g (1·0·5·1·1·2·2·2·0·1) | 15/12g | 76/81g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 76' 83' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 32 in 24g | 18/10g (3·0·2·1·3·2·0·2·2·3) | 14/13g | 76/81g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 27 in 22g | 13/10g (0·3·3·1·0·0·0·3·2·1) | 43/19g | 169/90g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 23 in 23g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 35/63g | 62% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 14 in 15g | 14/10g (0·3·1·0·2·1·1·2·2·2) | 3/4g | 24/24g | 72% | — | 🏉 56' 67' 90' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 13 in 24g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 9/16g | 68/102g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 24g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 24g | 6/10g (1·1·1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/26g | 30% | — | 🏉 40' 53' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 8 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 43/91g | 26% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 12/31g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 10/90g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 24g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 6 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 8/12g | 7/40g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/20g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 39/84g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 21/26g | 130/152g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 6/64g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/21g | 23/111g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 4/116g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 88' |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 69 in 24g | 31/10g (4·2·1·2·4·6·2·3·7·0) | 22/10g | 14/8g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 15' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 45 in 23g | 18/10g (0·1·0·4·2·3·2·3·1·2) | 8/8g | 1/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 25 in 22g | 17/10g (2·2·2·1·0·3·3·0·1·3) | 4/5g | 1/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 22 in 23g | 11/10g (1·0·1·3·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 16/16g | 6/11g | 66% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 19 in 20g | 12/10g (3·1·1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 22g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 3/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 11 in 24g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 2/11g | 0/8g | 34% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 10 in 7g | 11/10g (1·0·0·3·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 9 in 24g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/9g | 1/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 8 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 5/9g | 3/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 11/12g | 8/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 0/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 6/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/21g | 7/14g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 28 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 33 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 20.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 26 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Cam Rayner | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Marshall ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 11 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 14.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 20 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.81 | 71% | 10 ✓ |
| Callum Ah Chee | 13.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 13 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 26 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| John Noble | 23.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 22.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 28 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 19.5 | $1.91 | 39% | 17 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 17.5 | $1.88 | 45% | 18 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 17.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 12 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 17.5 | $1.81 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Lachie Weller | 16.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 16.5 | $1.83 | 33% | 20 ✗ |
| Alex Davies | 16.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 12 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew | 15.5 | $1.84 | 54% | 9 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 15.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 12.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 14 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)