AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.1 but the actual margin was 53 points. The game's 147 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 163. Brisbane Lions led 60–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 53. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
75%
Gold Coast SUNS
25%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1476). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 9.1 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 99.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W L L L L | 78.9 |
Avg Conceded
80.7
Brisbane Lions
77.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
27.9
Brisbane Lions
28.5
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
339.7
Brisbane Lions
345.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
51.0
Brisbane Lions
44.1
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: +9.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.32
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.