AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 80% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.7 but the actual margin was 34 points. Hawthorn led 24–43 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 164.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
80%
Hawthorn
20%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 90-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1476). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 10.7 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.75
Lost ✗
Edge
+23.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+23.0%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W W L | 105.5 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 85.4 |
Avg Conceded
71.6
Adelaide Crows
86.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
10.1
Adelaide Crows
28.1
Hawthorn
Disposals
369.9
Adelaide Crows
347.7
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
45.5
Adelaide Crows
42.3
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1566 vs 1476), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.75).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +10.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.21
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.