# Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn — AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 67 – 101 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 24 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 80% / Hawthorn 20% · Adelaide Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe (12' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (18'), James Peatling (21'), Darcy Fogarty (78' Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (87'), Josh Rachele (67' ×2), Jake Soligo (89') · Hawthorn: Nick Watson (2' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Karl Amon (4'), Josh Weddle (41'), Dylan Moore (56'), Jack Gunston (67' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (74'), Sam Butler (89' ×2), Jai Newcombe (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 80% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.7 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 67–101 Hawthorn in AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn accounted for Adelaide Crows 101–67 at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn led 79–49 at three-quarter time and held on.

Hawthorn controlled the midfield, winning 36 clearances to 30. Hawthorn pressed forward more often, going inside 50 64 times to 43. Hawthorn were cleaner inside forward 50 with 17 marks to 6. Hawthorn read the play better in defence, pulling down 77 intercepts to 63.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 20 | 4 | 25 | 18 | 67 |
| Hawthorn | 28 | 15 | 36 | 22 | 101 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Disposals | **365** |
| 105 | Contested poss. | **136** |
| 30 | Clearances | **36** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **64** |
| **98** | Marks | 85 |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| **56** | Tackles | 51 |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| 63 | Intercepts | **77** |
| **72.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 80% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.7 but the actual margin was 34 points. Hawthorn led 24–43 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 164.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.75 (edge +23.0%) — model probability 80.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 175

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 242 · 162 | 236 · 169 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.8/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.9% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 94 · 62 | 47 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.8/g | 21.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.1% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 21 | 33 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.1/g | 14/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.31/g (lg 1.24) +6% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.36) +1% · Key Forwards 3.47/g (lg 3.63) -4%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.31/g (lg 1.24) +6% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.36) -1% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.47) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 57 in 24g | 29/10g (5·0·6·2·3·4·3·1·3·2) | 13/6g | 61/45g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 65' 92' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 40 in 23g | 12/10g (1·2·3·0·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 12/9g | 115/72g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 39 in 22g | 19/10g (0·2·2·2·2·3·3·2·1·2) | 34/19g | 289/129g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 35 in 24g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·3·0·1·0·3·0) | 7/12g | 64/75g | 68% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 25 in 13g | 19/10g (1·2·2·1·5·3·3·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 55/39g | 80% | — | 🏉 67' 83' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 18 in 24g | 8/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 30/55g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 17 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 16/26g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 13 in 24g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 20/48g | 36% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 12 in 8g | 13/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1·3·3) | 1/2g | 23/20g | 67% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 11 in 24g | 6/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 8/19g | 39% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 11 in 22g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·3·0) | 1/4g | 6/14g | 36% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 7 in 23g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/21g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/42g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/38g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 31/118g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 9/80g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 18/68g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/48g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 18/137g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/38g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 65 in 21g | 37/10g (7·3·1·3·3·4·4·7·2·3) | 25/16g | 41/18g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' 84' 63' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 41 in 22g | 21/10g (4·1·5·2·0·1·3·0·3·2) | 11/8g | 14/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 33 in 23g | 15/10g (3·2·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 6/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 29' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 28 in 23g | 13/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·2·3) | 8/7g | 11/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 21 in 24g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 8/8g | 9/10g | 70% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 20 in 22g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 6/6g | 4/7g | 64% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 9/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 10 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 6/8g | 40% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 10 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 8/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 5 in 6g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 12/5g | 12/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 4/12g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 17/50g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 22/71g | 10% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 89' 73' |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 30 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 33 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.77 | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 14 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 16.5 | $1.79 | 46% | 23 ✗ |
| Daniel Curtin | 15.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 12 ✓ |
| Brodie Smith ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 15.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 14 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 14.5 | $1.88 | 44% | 19 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 14.5 | $1.94 | 44% | 12 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 14.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 9 ✓ |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 13.5 | $2.01 | 57% | 12 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 31 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 18.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 8 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 17.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 15.5 | $1.94 | 46% | 15 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick | 15.5 | $1.77 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald | 14.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)